What do you think that the most likely locations for future wars are? I mean other than Russia-Ukraine, since that war is essentially already going on right now in the Donbass due to covert Russian troops likely helping the Donbass separatists in their war against Ukraine.
The most likely locations for future wars?
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
Val the Moofia Boss
Well-known member
More local wars in Africa and tribal massacres in Africa that the mainstream media won't report on. More Chinese annexations that, again, won't be reported on.
Taiwan, where else? Kokang?
A Third Intifada?
Depends on what type of conflict or wars we are talking about. Interstate wars between major powers are unlikely but if one happens with the exception of another Sino-Indian border dispute it will most likely be between China or Russia and the U.S.
The most recent interstate conflict in recent memory was between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 and another interstate conflict between African states in the third world isn't outside the realm of possibilities.
The most recent interstate conflict in recent memory was between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 and another interstate conflict between African states in the third world isn't outside the realm of possibilities.
There's also the de facto interstate conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And of course if one goes a bit farther back, then the ISIS Caliphate was a de facto state, even if it was unrecognized and brutal as Hell.
What about Russia in Belarus if there will ever eventually be a Minsk Maidan?
They are to far gone. Belarus is the least likely combat zone for it to start in.
Maybe after Ukraine, but not before
Yinko
Well-known member
The Panamanian region maybe? I know that there is a lot of uncertainly in South/Central America, Columbia is currently in a semi Civil War, Venezuela is in an economic free fall, Nicaragua is similarly screwed, and most of the rest aren't too much better. A war could easily start in that region just as a distraction, more so if one of the bigger countries like Brazil got into it.
The Balkans. Kosovo is supposedly in talks with Albania to unify, which would piss off every surrounding country as people would push for repatriation efforts to re-draw all the surrounding borders.
Anatolia. With Turkey having a massive inflation crisis, they are suddenly weakened to attacks from the PKK and Syria.
Ethiopia is already in a prolonged civil war. Other countires are also already involved. The conclusion of this conflict will likely turn it into a failed state that drives the region (including Somalia and Djibouti) into a state of perpetual conflict.
The Balkans. Kosovo is supposedly in talks with Albania to unify, which would piss off every surrounding country as people would push for repatriation efforts to re-draw all the surrounding borders.
Anatolia. With Turkey having a massive inflation crisis, they are suddenly weakened to attacks from the PKK and Syria.
Ethiopia is already in a prolonged civil war. Other countires are also already involved. The conclusion of this conflict will likely turn it into a failed state that drives the region (including Somalia and Djibouti) into a state of perpetual conflict.
I thought that FARC has already made peace with the Colombian government?
Kosovar-Albanian unification actually makes a lot of sense since Albania is already in NATO and is more likely than Kosovo to enter the EU. It could even be done after an Albanian entry into the EU so that it doesn't actually jeopardize this. It would also eliminate Serbia's veto power on the Kosovo question.
Interesting.
Do you think that Ethiopia could outright be partitioned into several countries as with the Soviet Union in 1991?
After Ukraine what?
Yinko
Well-known member
I don't know a whole lot about that conflict, not sure if it's FARC or not. I just saw a video that I friend of a friend shot on his cell phone a few months ago. Plane lands in the middle of the highway, tank rolls out the back and immediately opens fire. I think a lot of the instability is actually from militant socialists fleeing Venezuela's failed socialist dictatorship.
Partitioning implies a peace agreement. I think that Ethiopia will simply shatter as each ethnic group refuses to recognize a central government. Those ethnic groups may or may not be stable after that in turn.
Interesting.
Well, can't these ethnic groups reach some sort of deal with each other, possibly after a period of warfare between them beforehand?
Yinko
Well-known member
Too much bad blood. For most of the past century there has been a succession of ethnic groups who have seized power and then oppressed the rest. Along with politicians who have made promises of cooperation, only to then break those promises and oppress those same groups. I really doubt that, at this point, any one really trusts one another enough to operate under the same state. Especially if things have already broken down to the point that half the country is in revolt against the central government. Hard to hold an election if no one trusts the ones doing the counting, no one trusts the officials and no one trusts the system.
gral
Well-known member
They have, but two things:
1) The war between FARC and the Colombian government was just the latest round in an on-off civil war that started in the 1930s(IIRC) between liberals and conservatives. It may not be the last round, especially given;
2) There are a lot of people(mainly on the conservative side) that were furious about the peace deal, because they thought the FARC(which, although, not exactly on its last legs, was definitely losing the war by the time peace negotiations started) was given too much for peace(these same people who dislike the peace treaty hold these concessions were given so the outgoing president would have the peace treaty on his resume). Remember that, when the submitted the peace treaty to a refrendum, it narrowly lost(and was later rammed through the Colombian Congress, IIRC).
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
I have some small insight on Ethiopia, it's more like contextual information : the Fascist Kingdom of Italy won against Ethiopia because not all groups were loyal to the Empire, those who "betrayed" / got bribed were Ethnic minorities, namely Tigrays and Somalis. The literally liked the "colonizer" more than their "Emperor".
Not to mention that slavery was very much legal until the Italians invaded. One of the few good things Mussolini did was abolishing said slavery in the newly acquired territory.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
There is always talk of talks but reality is different. Albanians despise Kosovars and considers the haughty cunts, while Kosovars consider Albanians backward primitives. Even in diaspora there is a sharp divide between Albanians and Kosovars. The Kosovar ruling oligarchy is horribly corrupt, even by the standards of the region and will certainly not share it's loot with the Albanian ruling elites. So while the countries share the heritage and cooperate when mutually beneficent they will not unify as long as EU funds come flowing to Kosovo.
Also Serbian military is in no position to retake kosovo due to two decades of budget cuts, not to mention that any military action in Kosovo would mean getting bombed by USA (Serbian air defence is much worse than in 1999).
Syria is in no position to fight Turkey, while PKK strength in Turkey has been broken in 2015-16 campaign, with PKK in Iraq noth being strong enough to pose serious threat, while YPG has too many problems to consider mayor action, although they still might leeroy their way into serious strategic blunder.
This is an off-topic question, but what are your thoughts about the idea of resettling Shi'a Afghan refugees (especially Hazaras) in Syria in large numbers if they will want to flee the Taliban?
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
Nobody gets along in the Balkans, with exception of MAYBE Sloven with Croats and vice versa, though they went from try to ethnically cleanse each other to just angrily stare at each other. Maybe those my age (born in 1995) and younger get along better. Also heard the same thing about Albanians and Kosovars. Serbians could something only if the USA has bigger fish to fry than them, a notable Russophile country.
Turkey is complicated : I read about some of the TAF soldiers committing suicide because they saw Norther Syrian occupation as unjust and their money is worth crap. Syria is getting better and would already be over if it wasn't for the holdouts in the North and Israel in the West ( who by the way helped the rebel factions and just abandoned them when they didn't win as predicted). Syria for some reason returned to be vocal about irrendentist claims about a portion of the country that belongs to Turkey.