The odds of Nigeria getting nuked or striked in the first place are extremely low. As are many countries in bumfuck nowhere. Remember the primary use of Russian Nukes is to hit US and Nato Assets. Any nuke not used on those is a Nuke wasted.
Rebuilding the U.S. after the mad max has fizzled out.
- Thread starter Free-Stater 101
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Bear Ribs
Well-known member
Agree with @Bacle, the type of disaster is going to have a huge impact.
Going off things I think could reasonably Mad Max the US (So not stuff like zombies that can safely be stored in the fantasy drawer) The Yellowstone Supervolcano blowing up and taking North America with it seems most likely, followed by civil war.
Assuming the mildest effects of the supervolcano, we can look forward to the worse sequel to Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death. Note that Tambora threw 12 cubic miles of ash into the atmosphere, and it resulted in basically two years of Game of Thrones style endless winter, there was so much ash in the atmosphere that the ground never warmed and spring never came that year. Abnormally harsh and violent storms resulted from the bizarre disruption to warming patterns, most of the world's crops and livestock died, everybody worldwide froze and starved.
That was from 12 cubic miles of ash. The last time Yellowstone felt like stretching its legs (640,000 years ago), it cut loose with 250 cubic miles of ash. This was not the largest eruption Yellowstone's ever had. That caldera is an absolute monster. It's quite likely it will be weeks to months before humans who aren't on a space station see the sun again, much less the years it will take for there to be summer again.
American society is going to be based entirely on coastal cities because Yellowstone already killed everybody in between the Rockies and the Appalachians. The San Fernando Valley will briefly have most of the US's supply of food. Fishing is going to be the biggest source of food. Yes, the oceans will be suffering too, and the horror-weather a supervolcano spawns means it will make Deadliest Catch look like Disneyland, but there's a lot of ocean and the entire US fishing fleet is now only serving the west and east coasts + Alaska and Hawaii. Even at dramatically reduced catch rates, this will be the major food source during the several years that no crops will grow.
I expect the east and west coasts to eventually create their own separate governments. The biggest Mad Max style wars will not be cars fighting for oil, but be over the few fishing grounds that still produce. Currently, a Chinese fleet showing up and scraping the fishery dry is an economic hardship. Then? Each of those ships is a town of your people who are going to starve to death. Navies will adopt a shoot-first attitude towards poachers on their precious fishing grounds.
Hawaii will likely split off from the rest of the US but its Naval assets are likely to mostly travel to the West Coast to protect the continent. Carriers will be less useful than they have been historically, because of the superstorms making flight deadly. However, they're still the 800 pound gorillas in the seas and the Disunited States will use regular air patrols to sweep for enemy fishing boats as long as they have fuel. Given that the weather will be freezing cold everywhere, most of Canada's surviving population will migrate south into the states seeking refuge. The West United States may try to annex Baja California to get at warmer climates and fisheries.
When materiel starts getting scarce, expect military groups to cross the two mountain ranges and start seeking out depots buried in ash to loot for ammunition, fuel, rations, etc. This will eventually lead to clashes between the two coastal States over who owns which depot. Expect a few battles.
In the end, when Summer finally returns after several years of continuous winter, US culture will have evolved dramatically.
Fish will be the biggest part of the diet, and by this point fishing will be part of the national identity, the way cattle are now. Fishermen will be revered as the toughest SOBs on the planet and entertainment will celebrate iron-hard fishermen who fight pirates, stop invasions, and save lives the way cowboys fighting rustlers were revered in the 60s and 70s.
The military will be seen as heroes due to both being able to bring in vast quantities of life-saving supplies from depots and fighting off fish-pirate fleets.
The states will regard themselves as naval powers first and foremost and the other military branches will be decidedly inferior.
International trade will be long gone, most fleets will be too busy protecting fishing grounds and will shoot at any suspicious ship they see. It's likely to be many, many years before this paranoia fades and people start to ship goods again.
Once summer returns, groups beyond just the military will start leaving the coasts and moving into the heartlands to reclaim the earth. To be sure, some rugged types will already have done that and put together cabins and holdings, but there will be a new land rush as hasn't been seen since the old west. Both coasts will move towards the middle. The recolonization process will likely take half a century or more and be a second wild west/mad max era. Depending on how serious the clashes are, either the two will wind up becoming East and West United States, or they'll eventually reunite. The heartlands will have, by this time, absorbed insane amounts of minerals from the mountains of ash dumped into them and food will suddenly become amazingly abundant, this will last for decades to centuries.
The Mississippi will likely have become more wild during the time it was unattended. People have spent a lot of time easing it, removing sandbars, dredging out rapids, etc. Several years of super-wild weather is likely to fill it up with snags and sandbars again and it will need some care, but will again become a major part of shipping and quite likely if the Disunited States never combine again, it will become the border between the East and West United States.
Against all odds, somehow Oklahoma will again be the last place colonized just like it was last time, when settlers went around it to colonize the rest of the continent.
Going off things I think could reasonably Mad Max the US (So not stuff like zombies that can safely be stored in the fantasy drawer) The Yellowstone Supervolcano blowing up and taking North America with it seems most likely, followed by civil war.
Assuming the mildest effects of the supervolcano, we can look forward to the worse sequel to Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death. Note that Tambora threw 12 cubic miles of ash into the atmosphere, and it resulted in basically two years of Game of Thrones style endless winter, there was so much ash in the atmosphere that the ground never warmed and spring never came that year. Abnormally harsh and violent storms resulted from the bizarre disruption to warming patterns, most of the world's crops and livestock died, everybody worldwide froze and starved.
That was from 12 cubic miles of ash. The last time Yellowstone felt like stretching its legs (640,000 years ago), it cut loose with 250 cubic miles of ash. This was not the largest eruption Yellowstone's ever had. That caldera is an absolute monster. It's quite likely it will be weeks to months before humans who aren't on a space station see the sun again, much less the years it will take for there to be summer again.
American society is going to be based entirely on coastal cities because Yellowstone already killed everybody in between the Rockies and the Appalachians. The San Fernando Valley will briefly have most of the US's supply of food. Fishing is going to be the biggest source of food. Yes, the oceans will be suffering too, and the horror-weather a supervolcano spawns means it will make Deadliest Catch look like Disneyland, but there's a lot of ocean and the entire US fishing fleet is now only serving the west and east coasts + Alaska and Hawaii. Even at dramatically reduced catch rates, this will be the major food source during the several years that no crops will grow.
I expect the east and west coasts to eventually create their own separate governments. The biggest Mad Max style wars will not be cars fighting for oil, but be over the few fishing grounds that still produce. Currently, a Chinese fleet showing up and scraping the fishery dry is an economic hardship. Then? Each of those ships is a town of your people who are going to starve to death. Navies will adopt a shoot-first attitude towards poachers on their precious fishing grounds.
Hawaii will likely split off from the rest of the US but its Naval assets are likely to mostly travel to the West Coast to protect the continent. Carriers will be less useful than they have been historically, because of the superstorms making flight deadly. However, they're still the 800 pound gorillas in the seas and the Disunited States will use regular air patrols to sweep for enemy fishing boats as long as they have fuel. Given that the weather will be freezing cold everywhere, most of Canada's surviving population will migrate south into the states seeking refuge. The West United States may try to annex Baja California to get at warmer climates and fisheries.
When materiel starts getting scarce, expect military groups to cross the two mountain ranges and start seeking out depots buried in ash to loot for ammunition, fuel, rations, etc. This will eventually lead to clashes between the two coastal States over who owns which depot. Expect a few battles.
In the end, when Summer finally returns after several years of continuous winter, US culture will have evolved dramatically.
Fish will be the biggest part of the diet, and by this point fishing will be part of the national identity, the way cattle are now. Fishermen will be revered as the toughest SOBs on the planet and entertainment will celebrate iron-hard fishermen who fight pirates, stop invasions, and save lives the way cowboys fighting rustlers were revered in the 60s and 70s.
The military will be seen as heroes due to both being able to bring in vast quantities of life-saving supplies from depots and fighting off fish-pirate fleets.
The states will regard themselves as naval powers first and foremost and the other military branches will be decidedly inferior.
International trade will be long gone, most fleets will be too busy protecting fishing grounds and will shoot at any suspicious ship they see. It's likely to be many, many years before this paranoia fades and people start to ship goods again.
Once summer returns, groups beyond just the military will start leaving the coasts and moving into the heartlands to reclaim the earth. To be sure, some rugged types will already have done that and put together cabins and holdings, but there will be a new land rush as hasn't been seen since the old west. Both coasts will move towards the middle. The recolonization process will likely take half a century or more and be a second wild west/mad max era. Depending on how serious the clashes are, either the two will wind up becoming East and West United States, or they'll eventually reunite. The heartlands will have, by this time, absorbed insane amounts of minerals from the mountains of ash dumped into them and food will suddenly become amazingly abundant, this will last for decades to centuries.
The Mississippi will likely have become more wild during the time it was unattended. People have spent a lot of time easing it, removing sandbars, dredging out rapids, etc. Several years of super-wild weather is likely to fill it up with snags and sandbars again and it will need some care, but will again become a major part of shipping and quite likely if the Disunited States never combine again, it will become the border between the East and West United States.
Against all odds, somehow Oklahoma will again be the last place colonized just like it was last time, when settlers went around it to colonize the rest of the continent.
Only in the Northern Hemisphere. The reason humans survived Toba was because Humanity south of the equator were not in the Bulk of the Ashfall. We have two Jetstreams on this planet. One in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the South. A Volcano blasting its top up North has lesser affects down south and vice versa. Fossil evidence in past supervolcano events bear this out.
Bear Ribs
Well-known member
Based on current theories humanity barely survived Toba. It cut the human population down to about 2000 individuals and gave us 6-10 years without summer, and around 1,000 years before the Earth's surface warmed back up to previous levels. Numerous other animals like tigers, chimps, and cheetahs all went through bottlenecks at the same time and I've seen theories that it may have been what finally ended the neanderthals. The cooling effect of the sun not reaching most of the planet's surface for several years isn't going to stop at a Jetstream, and Yellowstone is certainly enough to Mad Max the US while also punching the rest of humanity down enough to keep them from scooping up the pieces.
ParadiseLost
Well-known member
What would actually happen is a military junta, more or less.
But Toba hit Eurasia and North Africa way harder than it did North America. Which is curious. Because there was no mass die off in the Americas at that time. Which means Supervolcanos might not be full hemisphere in intensity. If that is the case then Eurasia this time won't get hit as hard.
Bear Ribs
Well-known member
North America was heavily glaciated at that point, the Last Glacial Period began there about 115,000 years ago there, so needless to say most of its surviving animals were already equipped to deal with the cold and there were relatively few dieoffs.
The much smaller Tambora eruption had no problem hitting North America from Indonesia, indicating a lack of any such protective winds.
Toba is a firecracker compared to Yellowstone.
And the ash may not jump the equator, but the SO2 will if it gets high enough. That will cause some amount of cooling and sunlight reflection in the southern hemisphere.
These are the current models if Yellowstone ever erupted.
Modeling the Ash Distribution of a Yellowstone Supereruption (2014) | U.S. Geological Survey
The topic of Yellowstone supereruptions (ones producing greater than one thousand cubic kilometers of volcanic debris) generates much interest, but also occasional confusion.
The worst effects are only closer to the blast zone. Wind patterns will determine where all the ash goes.
Bear Ribs
Well-known member
I think you've got your volcanoes crossed there, Tambora is the cause of Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death and it's a firecracker to Yellowstone but Toba is actually in the same ballpark as Yellowstone... and was the closest to extinction humankind has ever been, dropping the worldwide population down to about 1-2,000 people total 75,000 years ago.
Ash isn't the biggest killer from a volcano like that*, the world going 6-10 years without a summer and with almost no possibility of growing any food is.These are the current models if Yellowstone ever erupted.
Modeling the Ash Distribution of a Yellowstone Supereruption (2014) | U.S. Geological Survey
The topic of Yellowstone supereruptions (ones producing greater than one thousand cubic kilometers of volcanic debris) generates much interest, but also occasional confusion.www.usgs.gov
The worst effects are only closer to the blast zone. Wind patterns will determine where all the ash goes.
*Not that the ash is nice, since it will kill everybody who inhales it by forming a cement-like mixture in their lungs, almost everybody in North America not right at the coasts is going to die unless the mask mandate is still in place and mandates much better masks than we're using now.
Um we already grow Cold Weather crops. We would just grow more of those. What did you think they grew during the Little Ice Age.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
And i think Toba is also more seismically active than Yellowstone.
Bassoe
Well-known member
One other thing we haven't dealt with yet, what's gonna happen with American forces left abandoned abroad?
In countries which were being defended by the US (NATO, Japan, South Korea, etc), apply for refugee status/citizenship in exchange for turning over all your equipment and skills to your new country which is going to need all the help they can get with all the wars that'll break out with the end of the pax americana. With the unstated threat being that if you aren't granted said refugee status/citizenship, you'll still be present and possess all those equipment and skills?
In countries which were being invaded by the US (the middle eastern forever war), change of doctrine, instead of propping up local regimes of Moderate Freedom Fighters™ against the current enemy of the moment until they inevitably become the next enemy of the moment, go full Peshawar Lancers?
In countries which were being defended by the US (NATO, Japan, South Korea, etc), apply for refugee status/citizenship in exchange for turning over all your equipment and skills to your new country which is going to need all the help they can get with all the wars that'll break out with the end of the pax americana. With the unstated threat being that if you aren't granted said refugee status/citizenship, you'll still be present and possess all those equipment and skills?
In countries which were being invaded by the US (the middle eastern forever war), change of doctrine, instead of propping up local regimes of Moderate Freedom Fighters™ against the current enemy of the moment until they inevitably become the next enemy of the moment, go full Peshawar Lancers?
Eh, that's normal behavior for them; magnetic polar flips/wanders are a very well known and rather benign geological phenomena.In the meantime, the magnetic field is getting weaker by the year, and the magnetic poles' movements are picking up speed.
People freaking out about it are scaring themselves over literally nothing.
Bear Ribs
Well-known member
For nations being invaded there's generally a US base in a friendly nation within short distance and they can airlift their people and equipment to the friendly territory. Savvy commanders are going to probably try to bid allies against each other to get a better offer for their troops, if Japan only offers immigrant status while Korea offers full citizenship and integration into their existing military I imagine they'll send much more materiel and more people over to Korea. If neither country has a good offer Guam might be suddenly become the most terrifyingly well-armed micronation ever.
History Learner
Well-known member
It would help to know what exactly event X was, because that would shape how we rebuild. Nuclear warfare requires a different handling as opposed to, say, a mass pandemic.
Bassoe
Well-known member
Probably can be divided into the following four categories:
Self-Inflicted: The cultural war escalates to an actual civil war or automation eats enough of the jobs market that 'people the system has discarded' become numerous enough to threaten the system's stability.
Mutually Assured Destruction Warfare: Conflict with another nuclear superpower.
Outside Context Natural Disaster: Yellowstone erupts, an asteroid hits, a pandemic, some of the more cataclysmic predictions of global climate change come true, etc.
Resource Exhaustion: Peak oil/rare earth ores, etc.
Bassoe
Well-known member
We get vassalized by foreign-backed puppet regimes, officially to stop the violence, unofficially, to loot everything they can get their grubby mitts on. There's no New US, or rather, multiple New USs, each with a different backer. They're officially politically independent, but have their constitutions written by foreigners with exemptions to make them work for said foreigner regimes, and only stand against their rivals/freedom fighters with the assistance of the industrial and military might of said foreign regimes. This new status quo continues until either perpetual conflict against guerrilla rebellions makes it financially impractical for the colonizers to break even on resources and labor they loot, the resources run out and the colonizers go home, automation reaches the point where cheap foreign quasi-slave labor is no longer economically practical or some combination of the above.
Civilization is fucked and will never unfuck itself. There may be new nations with 'sustainable' primitive technologies, but with the best available source of power being steam engines burning self-sustaining fuel sources in the form of lumber, there will never again be WMDs and as such, no Great Powers immune to invasion through MAD. The new status quo of rising and falling steampunk-at-best empires lasts until a cosmological Outside Context Problem finishes humanity off.
The Children of Time by Stephen Baxter said:
Well aren't you a ray of sunshine...
There are several assumptions you are making, which I don't think really hold up.
One is that in order to have liquid-hydrocarbon fuels, we (ie humanity) must have access to petroleum.
That's not really true. Don't get me wrong, it's the best option, but there are alternatives. We could ranch vast herds of livestock and turn animal fat into fuel, if we really needed to. And that's just a "for example".
Secondly - the sun and the wind wouldn't have gone away, so electricity from solar-thermal, wind, hydro, etc etc would still be viable. And if we have that, we can use it to bootstrap to the good stuff...