History Learner
Well-known member
Napoleon was actually pretty close to victory in the Hundred Days, with the decisive point probably being the "misfire" at Ligny. After having pinned the Prussians frontally, Napoleon had set the seeds of a devastating flanking attack upon the Blucher's exposed right flank with the I Corps of, which was 20,000 strong. Due to sudden communication from Marshal Ney, then engaged at Quatre Baas, requesting them, this engendered command confusion that resulted in said corps marching back and force ineffectually for most of the day and preventing serious French success at either battle. Had things progress as Napoleon intended, the Prussian field army would've been removed at Ligny. Now, in of itself, this does nothing to decisively win the campaign, but it does lay the pre-conditions for such. With the Prussians removed, Wellington has no reason to stand at Waterloo; his decision to do such was based on the expectation of Prussian support and the need to maintain communication between the two armies via Ostend.
With the Prussian Army effectively destroyed, Wellington has every reason to withdraw upon Antwerp. This would enable Napoleon to largely complete the conquest of Belgium, entering Brussels unopposed, and then turning his attention to the Austro-Russians marching for France through Germany. The strategic opening granted here also enables the French War Ministry to continue the mobilization of new French forces, with Napoleon plausibly expecting a field army of 200,000 men by August, backed up over another 200,000 men to be utilized as defensive garrisons for a total field force of roughly 440,000 total men. Now, it's worth noting that the 200,000 main field force is still smaller than the combined Russo-Austrian armies marching to France but Napoleon has the advantage in that they are not yet combined forces but rather separate field forces; the Russian crossing point is at the Saar while the Austrians would be separated from them by the Vosges Mountain range. This means that Napoleon could meet and defeat them in detail.
The Russians would be closer and number about 150,000 so Napoleon could bring about superior forces and his own skills to destroy them as he did at Austerlitz, and then rushing to engage the Austrians south of the Vosges. Even if he fails to achieve a decisive victory in the latter, removing the Russo-Prussian field armies effectively ends the Allied thread against him for another year, maybe more. Most likely then negotiations are resumed, as both sides had previously attempted during the War of the Seventh Coalition. Austria in particular has reasons for talks, given it wants France as a counter-weight to Russia and the fact that Napoleon's heir, the King of Rome Napoleon II, is half Austrian via his mother. Most likely then we see France leverage its victories with the tacit support of Austria to revive the Frankfurt Proposals as the basis of peace between France and the Coalition.
With the Prussian Army effectively destroyed, Wellington has every reason to withdraw upon Antwerp. This would enable Napoleon to largely complete the conquest of Belgium, entering Brussels unopposed, and then turning his attention to the Austro-Russians marching for France through Germany. The strategic opening granted here also enables the French War Ministry to continue the mobilization of new French forces, with Napoleon plausibly expecting a field army of 200,000 men by August, backed up over another 200,000 men to be utilized as defensive garrisons for a total field force of roughly 440,000 total men. Now, it's worth noting that the 200,000 main field force is still smaller than the combined Russo-Austrian armies marching to France but Napoleon has the advantage in that they are not yet combined forces but rather separate field forces; the Russian crossing point is at the Saar while the Austrians would be separated from them by the Vosges Mountain range. This means that Napoleon could meet and defeat them in detail.
The Russians would be closer and number about 150,000 so Napoleon could bring about superior forces and his own skills to destroy them as he did at Austerlitz, and then rushing to engage the Austrians south of the Vosges. Even if he fails to achieve a decisive victory in the latter, removing the Russo-Prussian field armies effectively ends the Allied thread against him for another year, maybe more. Most likely then negotiations are resumed, as both sides had previously attempted during the War of the Seventh Coalition. Austria in particular has reasons for talks, given it wants France as a counter-weight to Russia and the fact that Napoleon's heir, the King of Rome Napoleon II, is half Austrian via his mother. Most likely then we see France leverage its victories with the tacit support of Austria to revive the Frankfurt Proposals as the basis of peace between France and the Coalition.