WI: The Great Depression starts 5 years later?

[raharris1973]

Credit for this original idea goes to OneLurkerOnAH.com:

There have been many posts on this forum about the Great Depression not happening at all, but what if instead, it did happen, but only instead of starting with a stock market crash in 1929, it started with a stock market crash in 1934 instead?

I presume that since the US is in the middle of a Republican era, Herbert Hoover is reelected over FDR. The GD happening in Hoover's second term also means that he is probably still going to be regarded badly, but not as badly as he is IOTL. I'm not really sure what Hoover's first term looks like domestically without the depression, but his foreign policy in his second term would quite similar to FDRs imo. The only substantial difference might be that Hoover continues not recognizing the Soviet Union. Hoover probably handles the depression equally badly as he did IOTL.

With the GD breaking out in 1934, a Democrat would win in 1936, but I'm not sure who. Ultimately, FDR could still be an option if in 1932, he sees Hoover as too strong and doesn't try for the nomination, letting Garner or Smith, or former Secretary of War Newton D. Baker take the fall. If FDR still ran in 1932, for 1936, I could see Garner being a contender, assuming he didn't accept the position of FDR's running mate. Maybe Cordell Hull could also secure the nomination.

In Britain, a later Great Depression probably means that Ramsay MacDonald's Labour government survives longer, which is bound to have some interesting butterflies. Though MacDonald could still get denounced for being too moderate.

But perhaps the GD happening later would have the most interesting effects in Germany, which was under Hermann Muller's government at the time. Muller was physically weak by the end of his tenure as Chancellor, so I think that his coalition still probably falls apart. However, a later GD would seriously delay (or maybe even prevent) the rise of Nazi Germany, which would probably have large effects throughout the world.

 

[WolfBear]

The biggest effect of all here is going to be in Germany. Hindenburg won't run for reelection in 1932 without the Great Depression, and since the Great Depression won't hit until 1934, this would mean that a normal candidate will certainly win the German Presidency in 1932. Would a normal, non-senile German President who isn't influenced by a shadowy camarilla have actually been likely to appoint Hitler Chancellor? Frankly, I strongly doubt it, in which case Hitler and the Nazis never gain power in Germany unless they manage to win the 1939 German Presidential election, which is probably unlikely since the German economy will begin recovering from the Great Depression by then since 1939 - 1932 = 7 years while 1934 - 1929 = 5 years, which would mean that the German economic recovery in 1939 should be at 1935 levels rather than at 1933 levels.

No Hitler is the best thing ever to happen to Germany and Europe, no doubt. Even the Soviet Union will be happy from this if they will know what the alternative to this would have been. Specifically almost half of the 1923 Soviet male cohort that was still alive in 1941 being already dead by 1945.

 

[raharris1973]

Will the Japanese militarists stage the Mukden incident on OTLs schedule and occupy Manchuria in 1931 and then clash at Shanghai in 1932?

If so, in a time of global, and especially American, prosperity, will the outside world be as passive about Japanese aggression against China?

On the one hand, America, and others, may feel richer and stronger, confident in the ability to impose sanctions and beef up naval defenses. On the other hand, Hoover’s Quaker upbringing might incline him to mostly stick to talk, persuasion and diplomacy.

I assume either way, with a good economy, he is a two termer.

With more prosperous early 30s do we see wider deployment of color film and also television? A prolonged Harlem renaissance, possibly a new wave of civil rights activism starting?

The USSR finds western expertise and industrial goods higher priced. How much does this hurt the five year plan?

 

[Buba]

Would this postponement save the Gold Standard? It'd have five more years to recover from WWI ...
No LNT? New battleships laid down in 1931?

a later GD would seriously delay (or maybe even prevent) the rise of Nazi Germany

This.
A Great Depression in 1934 - and let us remember that the recession became the BIG recession in Europe after the French (intentionally or not) caused the collapse of Creditanstalt in 1931, something which need not happen here - may affect Europe much less than in OTL.
Hence no NSDAP in power, as it not only needed a recession to bring in votes, but also other circumstances, like half senile Hindenburg as President and his timely death.

 

[ATP]

Weimer germany was arleady allied to soviets,so they would eventually attack Poland together.And Sralin planned backstab his allies,so with weaker germany fighting France after defeating Poland,he could do so,and take all.

Soviet Europe.

 

[ShadowArxxy]

Weimer germany was arleady allied to soviets,so they would eventually attack Poland together.And Sralin planned backstab his allies,so with weaker germany fighting France after defeating Poland,he could do so,and take all.

The Treaty of Rapallo was absolutely not an alliance between the Weimar Republic and the Soviet Union; all they agreed to was to call it quits by renouncing territorial and financial claims against each other (which were meaningless anyway). Neither was the Treaty of Berlin, where they simply agreed to remain neutral if a third party attacked either of them.

No actual alliance existed between Germany and the Soviet Union until the Molotov-Ribbentrop Paact of 1939, which was Nazi Germany and not the Weimar Republic.

 

[ATP]

The Treaty of Rapallo was absolutely not an alliance between the Weimar Republic and the Soviet Union; all they agreed to was to call it quits by renouncing territorial and financial claims against each other (which were meaningless anyway). Neither was the Treaty of Berlin, where they simply agreed to remain neutral if a third party attacked either of them.

No actual alliance existed between Germany and the Soviet Union until the Molotov-Ribbentrop Paact of 1939, which was Nazi Germany and not the Weimar Republic.

And practically waited for chance to attack poland together,which would start WW2 just like in OTL,only with weaker germany.Which lead to Sralin backstabbing his allies when they take Paris,and soviet Europe.
And Africa with parts of Asia - colonies would fall,too.
100 millions more dead in gulags? more ?

 

[Buba]

Will the Japanese militarists stage the Mukden incident on OTLs schedule and occupy Manchuria in 1931 and then clash at Shanghai in 1932?

If so, in a time of global, and especially American, prosperity, will the outside world be as passive about Japanese aggression against China?

Fascinating question! Beyond my ken sadly ...

The state of militaries in the early '30s is indeed a big question on its own.
Starting with - which I've already mentiend - would there be a LNT? Or will all the Navies That Matter be cheerfuly building new capital ships and cruisers?
Armies and airforces - now that's a POD!
I'd imagine Britain and France to be starving their militaries' of funds still?

Other questions:
- Spain - is the 2nd republic avoided? As the economy is going well (less shity?) ...
- Italy - with the bottom dropping out of the market, will it have the money for an Abissynian Adventure?