raharris1973
Well-known member
The PoD is that the Kalmyk Mongol Ubashi Khan begins the migration of his people from Kalmykia in European Russia to Dzungaria in the Qing Empire six years earlier, in 1765 instead of 1771. Ubashi Khan - Wikipedia.
The Kalmyk eastward migration pissed off the Russian Imperial authorities and was regarded as a desertion from military service obligations, and an incitement to disloyalty by the Dalai Lama and his overlord the Qing Emperor. The Russian authorities in OTL executed some of the Kalmyk Mongol Nobility who didn't make the migration but were left behind and seen as supporting it or planning to join in, and then they abolished all Kalmyk autonomy. Both natural hazards of migration, and Cossack pursuit of migrants, increased losses to the migration.
With this earlier migration, it adds to the already tense situation between the Russians and Qing in the 1760s. The Qing were embargoing the Russo-Chinese caravan trade from 1761-1769, and for much of this time blockading the Russian Orthodox Church's diplomatic mission in Beijing to protest Russia's refusal to return the body of the Qing's last major enemy leader from the Dzungar wars, Amursana, for ritual posthumous punishment.
Catherine and her court get more time/energy to stew over the affront of the Kalmyk defection, and Chinese affairs in general, in 1765 than in 1771, because they aren't dealing with a Polish revolt or Ottoman War at the moment.
Things escalate. Catherine sends messages of protest to Emperor Qianlong and the Dalai Lama, while sending Cossacks to hunt down the Kalmyks. Some in the St. Petersburg court argue for war to force restoration of trade and restore access to the Amur river. Russian authorities make threats against Buddhist temples and monasteries on their territories (in Kalmykia, Buryatia) if the Kalmyks don't return to their lands and duties.
Emperor Qianlong, all cocky after destroying the Dzungar empire and ending the Mongol threat for good, is affronted by the shrieking demands and threats of the Russian harpy Empress. He determines that he needs to organize a campaign to 'chastise' the arrogant Russians.
The Qing's assemble an Army in Mongolia to attack along the Russian border with the objective of humiliating the Russians, teaching them proper deference, and seizing the land inhabited by the Buddhist Buryat Mongols (and Russians and other tribes), between Lake Baikal and outer Manchuria's Stanovoy mountains. This would not only 'teach a lesson', but further complete the Qing project of 'collecting all Mongols', make the Qing northern border match the northern border of the historic Yuan dynasty, and grab the local silver mines and grain producing lands from the Russians.
The long and short of this war though is that the Qing forces can't win, and that they find the Russians are now much tougher opponents than they were in the 1600s. The Qing forces attacking Siberia get shredded up, and the Qing end up needing to cede back the territory north of the Amur river they won in 1689.
Fast forward to the British MacCartney embassy of 1793. Instead of being arrogantly dismissive of MacCartney's trade show, Qianlong and the court are interested in British mechanical inventions, especially weapons. The Chinese begin importing weapons and ships from Britain to help balance the British tea trade and avoid the British reliance on opium, and begin hiring foreigners for advice on how to use them.
Thoughts.
The Kalmyk eastward migration pissed off the Russian Imperial authorities and was regarded as a desertion from military service obligations, and an incitement to disloyalty by the Dalai Lama and his overlord the Qing Emperor. The Russian authorities in OTL executed some of the Kalmyk Mongol Nobility who didn't make the migration but were left behind and seen as supporting it or planning to join in, and then they abolished all Kalmyk autonomy. Both natural hazards of migration, and Cossack pursuit of migrants, increased losses to the migration.
With this earlier migration, it adds to the already tense situation between the Russians and Qing in the 1760s. The Qing were embargoing the Russo-Chinese caravan trade from 1761-1769, and for much of this time blockading the Russian Orthodox Church's diplomatic mission in Beijing to protest Russia's refusal to return the body of the Qing's last major enemy leader from the Dzungar wars, Amursana, for ritual posthumous punishment.
Catherine and her court get more time/energy to stew over the affront of the Kalmyk defection, and Chinese affairs in general, in 1765 than in 1771, because they aren't dealing with a Polish revolt or Ottoman War at the moment.
Things escalate. Catherine sends messages of protest to Emperor Qianlong and the Dalai Lama, while sending Cossacks to hunt down the Kalmyks. Some in the St. Petersburg court argue for war to force restoration of trade and restore access to the Amur river. Russian authorities make threats against Buddhist temples and monasteries on their territories (in Kalmykia, Buryatia) if the Kalmyks don't return to their lands and duties.
Emperor Qianlong, all cocky after destroying the Dzungar empire and ending the Mongol threat for good, is affronted by the shrieking demands and threats of the Russian harpy Empress. He determines that he needs to organize a campaign to 'chastise' the arrogant Russians.
The Qing's assemble an Army in Mongolia to attack along the Russian border with the objective of humiliating the Russians, teaching them proper deference, and seizing the land inhabited by the Buddhist Buryat Mongols (and Russians and other tribes), between Lake Baikal and outer Manchuria's Stanovoy mountains. This would not only 'teach a lesson', but further complete the Qing project of 'collecting all Mongols', make the Qing northern border match the northern border of the historic Yuan dynasty, and grab the local silver mines and grain producing lands from the Russians.
The long and short of this war though is that the Qing forces can't win, and that they find the Russians are now much tougher opponents than they were in the 1600s. The Qing forces attacking Siberia get shredded up, and the Qing end up needing to cede back the territory north of the Amur river they won in 1689.
Fast forward to the British MacCartney embassy of 1793. Instead of being arrogantly dismissive of MacCartney's trade show, Qianlong and the court are interested in British mechanical inventions, especially weapons. The Chinese begin importing weapons and ships from Britain to help balance the British tea trade and avoid the British reliance on opium, and begin hiring foreigners for advice on how to use them.
Thoughts.