What would it take for Germany to unify in 1848?

[raharris1973]

The idea here is taken from Vinization on AH.com:

Like it says on the tin. Is it as simple as just having the king of Prussia accept the Frankfurt Parliament's "crown from the gutter"? What about a quick, decisive victory at the First Schleswig War (perhaps with a victory at Dybbøl, a couple months before the armistice of Malmö in August 1848?), is it possible for the Prussians and the rebels from Schleswig-Holstein to present a fait accompli before the other Great Powers intervene on Denmark's behalf?

I assume Austria wouldn't be happy about such a development, so what would it take to distract them before they can interfere in this potential German unification? Could a longer, nastier war in Hungary and Italy suffice?

 

[WolfBear]

Is it as simple as just having the king of Prussia accept the Frankfurt Parliament's "crown from the gutter"?

Yep! Specifically, have him realize that he can use liberal revolutionaries as tools for his own ends and subsequently strengthen autocratic rule in this new unified Germany (or at least try to do so) by whatever means that he can.

I assume Austria wouldn't be happy about such a development, so what would it take to distract them before they can interfere in this potential German unification? Could a longer, nastier war in Hungary and Italy suffice?

Yep, sure sounds like it!

 

[History Learner]

The idea here is taken from Vinization on AH.com:

Like it says on the tin. Is it as simple as just having the king of Prussia accept the Frankfurt Parliament's "crown from the gutter"? What about a quick, decisive victory at the First Schleswig War (perhaps with a victory at Dybbøl, a couple months before the armistice of Malmö in August 1848?), is it possible for the Prussians and the rebels from Schleswig-Holstein to present a fait accompli before the other Great Powers intervene on Denmark's behalf?

I assume Austria wouldn't be happy about such a development, so what would it take to distract them before they can interfere in this potential German unification? Could a longer, nastier war in Hungary and Italy suffice?

Have Italy and Hungary slip out of Habsburg control, rendering the question of Austria's non Germanic territories as mostly moot; this removes the main obstacle to Emperor Ferdinand accepting the crown of the German Empire. The original intention was to give it to him and Schmerling, Ministerpräsident of the provisional government, was Pro-Habsburg.

 

[WolfBear]

Have Italy and Hungary slip out of Habsburg control, rendering the question of Austria's non Germanic territories as mostly moot; this removes the main obstacle to Emperor Ferdinand accepting the crown of the German Empire. The original intention was to give it to him and Schmerling, Ministerpräsident of the provisional government, was Pro-Habsburg.

Italians in Germany are not an unusual phenomenon if the Holy Roman Empire is anything to go by!

 

[raharris1973]

Have Italy and Hungary slip out of Habsburg control, rendering the question of Austria's non Germanic territories as mostly moot; this removes the main obstacle to Emperor Ferdinand accepting the crown of the German Empire. The original intention was to give it to him and Schmerling, Ministerpräsident of the provisional government, was Pro-Habsburg.

From there, does Ferdinand just use imperial/moral/democratic authority, plus military force, to keep Prussia in line as a subservient member state of the German Empire? How hard/easy is that?

 

[raharris1973]

Have Italy and Hungary slip out of Habsburg control, rendering the question of Austria's non Germanic territories as mostly moot; this removes the main obstacle to Emperor Ferdinand accepting the crown of the German Empire. The original intention was to give it to him and Schmerling, Ministerpräsident of the provisional government, was Pro-Habsburg.

What happens to the King of Prussia under this schema?

 

[Buba]

The wee problem with Kaiser Ferdinand is his mental disability. The country is ruled by a court clique. For Austria to do something earth shattering - like uniting Germany - it needs to be ruled by a single, energetic, ruthless individual. Monarch or Grand Wezir - does not matter.
The Hungarian Revolt was in large part a self inflicted wound - this need not happen. But Piemont and Italian rebels need to be put down before Vienna can move on north Germany.
While France is out of Great Power politics in 1848, by '49 it might wish to have a say over what is happening next door. I'm also not sure if Nicholas would support such a dramatic change upon his border - he was a fan of the status quo.
Hence chances for Austria heading a Grossdeutschland of the sort created in 1866/71 are IMO very low.

 

[WolfBear]

The wee problem with Kaiser Ferdinand is his mental disability. The country is ruled by a court clique. For Austria to do something earth shattering - like uniting Germany - it needs to be ruled by a single, energetic, ruthless individual. Monarch or Grand Wezir - does not matter.
The Hungarian Revolt was in large part a self inflicted wound - this need not happen. But Piemont and Italian rebels need to be put down before Vienna can move on north Germany.
While France is out of Great Power politics in 1848, by '49 it might wish to have a say over what is happening next door. I'm also not sure if Nicholas would support such a dramatic change upon his border - he was a fan of the status quo.
Hence chances for Austria heading a Grossdeutschland of the sort created in 1866/71 are IMO very low.

Re: Italy: There is another solution here: Have Austria support Italian unification under its own aegis, possibly under a Hapsburg cadet branch. Upstage Garibaldi by doing his work before he himself is ever actually able to do it.

 

[History Learner]

What happens to the King of Prussia under this schema?

Remains as King, presumably. The South German monarchs got the same deal, after all.

 

[shangrila]

The Hapsburgs need to fall apart. The Prussians can be convinced to take a populist crown, the Hapsburgs can't. And the Hapsburgs falling apart was possible, even probable if the Russians didn't help them put down the Hungarians.

 

[WolfBear]

The Hapsburgs need to fall apart. The Prussians can be convinced to take a populist crown, the Hapsburgs can't. And the Hapsburgs falling apart was possible, even probable if the Russians didn't help them put down the Hungarians.

From a Russian national interests perspective, was supporting the Hungarians in 1848-1849 smarter than supporting the Austrians?

 

[shangrila]

I mean, what's "Russian national interest" in an era of absolute rule? A map painting Russian player in Victoria would of course benefit from watching powers on the border breaking up, but Nicholas I wanted to suppress revolutions across Europe. He even wanted to put down the Belgians and Louis-Philippe in France and there's no realistic gain in it for "Russia" having to march across Germany to do anything, except insofar as any revolutionary sentiment will eventually spread back to Russia. Nicholas even threatened the Prussians to not give in to the populists and so may have contributed to Prussian behavior in 1848.

 

[WolfBear]

I mean, what's "Russian national interest" in an era of absolute rule? A map painting Russian player in Victoria would of course benefit from watching powers on the border breaking up, but Nicholas I wanted to suppress revolutions across Europe. He even wanted to put down the Belgians and Louis-Philippe in France and there's no realistic gain in it for "Russia" having to march across Germany to do anything, except insofar as any revolutionary sentiment will eventually spread back to Russia. Nicholas even threatened the Prussians to not give in to the populists and so may have contributed to Prussian behavior in 1848.

Why did he not manage to crush the French and Belgian revolutions? Distance?

 

[shangrila]

The German states refused to let him march through and the British did their best to ensure that it was so since they supported both revolutions, particularly the Belgian one.

 

[WolfBear]

The German states refused to let him march through and the British did their best to ensure that it was so since they supported both revolutions, particularly the Belgian one.

Bless these German states! Honestly, what the hell is it his business what kind of government the Franco-Belgians have?

 

[ATP]

The idea here is taken from Vinization on AH.com:

Like it says on the tin. Is it as simple as just having the king of Prussia accept the Frankfurt Parliament's "crown from the gutter"? What about a quick, decisive victory at the First Schleswig War (perhaps with a victory at Dybbøl, a couple months before the armistice of Malmö in August 1848?), is it possible for the Prussians and the rebels from Schleswig-Holstein to present a fait accompli before the other Great Powers intervene on Denmark's behalf?

I assume Austria wouldn't be happy about such a development, so what would it take to distract them before they can interfere in this potential German unification? Could a longer, nastier war in Hungary and Italy suffice?

Yes,if prussian King stopped to be themselves.Which mean impossible.