What would an early 20th century British Civil War over Irish Home Rule look like?

[raharris1973]

It's often said that the coming of WWI, and Britain's entry into it, provided a useful diversion away from a brewing crisis and possible or probable civil war of Irish Home Rule.

So if WWI doesn't happen on schedule, and the Irish and Ulster situation gets worse, what are people expecting to go down in Ireland, Ulster and Britain?

Is it:

1) Ulster Unionists armed uprising in Ulster in defiance of Home Rule legislation breaking out before 1914 is over
2) This being accompanied by general Ulster Unionist violence against Irish Home Rule advocates in Ireland and Catholics in general
3) Open sympathy for the Unionists among wide sectors of conservative British opinion and within the British Army and Navy, corresponding rage about Unionist high-handedness and bullying about Liberal and Labor and working class opinion, and Britain's reputation nosediving among pro-Irish circles abroad in the US, Australia, and Catholic Europe.
4) Liberal government ordering the Army to suppress the Unionist uprising
5) Internecine fighting between the Army and Ulster Unionists, with the Army being unenthusiastic, about. The press complaining about government policy failures and incompetence
6) New elections with the conservatives winning a majority, maybe a pretty solid one.
7) The new conservative government reneging on the whole Home Rule business, appeasing the Ulster Unionist side's demands in return for their demob and integration, and in reaction, a greater feeling of alienation by labor and liberal politicians, constituencies, press, and intellectuals.
8) A Conservative party more responsive to grassroots vigilante type conservative and patriotic movements and pressure groups seeking to hound or attack opposition press and emphasize militaristic nationalism and "unity".

 

[stevep]

It's often said that the coming of WWI, and Britain's entry into it, provided a useful diversion away from a brewing crisis and possible or probable civil war of Irish Home Rule.

So if WWI doesn't happen on schedule, and the Irish and Ulster situation gets worse, what are people expecting to go down in Ireland, Ulster and Britain?

Is it:

1) Ulster Unionists armed uprising in Ulster in defiance of Home Rule legislation breaking out before 1914 is over
2) This being accompanied by general Ulster Unionist violence against Irish Home Rule advocates in Ireland and Catholics in general
3) Open sympathy for the Unionists among wide sectors of conservative British opinion and within the British Army and Navy, corresponding rage about Unionist high-handedness and bullying about Liberal and Labor and working class opinion, and Britain's reputation nosediving among pro-Irish circles abroad in the US, Australia, and Catholic Europe.
4) Liberal government ordering the Army to suppress the Unionist uprising
5) Internecine fighting between the Army and Ulster Unionists, with the Army being unenthusiastic, about. The press complaining about government policy failures and incompetence
6) New elections with the conservatives winning a majority, maybe a pretty solid one.
7) The new conservative government reneging on the whole Home Rule business, appeasing the Ulster Unionist side's demands in return for their demob and integration, and in reaction, a greater feeling of alienation by labor and liberal politicians, constituencies, press, and intellectuals.
8) A Conservative party more responsive to grassroots vigilante type conservative and patriotic movements and pressure groups seeking to hound or attack opposition press and emphasize militaristic nationalism and "unity".

I can see it going that way up to 5). Possibly a new election [6] might see a Tory victory as people feel the nation is threatened or you could see a Liberal one with a reaction against the Ulster Unionists defying Parliament and some army support for them being seen as threatening civilian rule. Especially if say there are reports of atrocities, probably being alleged by both sides. The other big issue would be how badly is Ireland affected by the fighting as that could mean some areas, especially in the north, aren't able to vote.

If the Tories won they would definitely seek to end Home Rule - their formal name at the time was the Conservative and Unionist party, the latter relation to a number of Liberals who had broken from the party and joined the Tories in opposing Home Rule during Gladstone's time, unless they decided the chances of widespread violence in Ireland was too great. The former could mean, while probably not likely 8) could develop with a loss of democratic power and more mob rule and anti-Catholic feeling.