What if the Soviet August coup of 1991 had succeeded?

[Circle of Willis]

In August of 1991, eight hard-liner opponents of Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms attempted a coup d'etat with the support of the KGB and elements of the military in a bid to 'save' the USSR. They briefly took down communications, claimed to depose Gorbachev in favor of his vice-president Gennady Yanayev, and proclaimed themselves the 'State Committee on the State of Emergency'. However, due to a combination of failing to arrest Boris Yeltsin, some of their troops apparently getting cold feet and refusing to massacre civilians who had gathered to oppose the coup, and the conspirators consequently losing their nerve while Gorbachev and Yeltsin remained standing, the conspiracy failed and some of the plotters killed themselves. All the hard-liners managed to do was, ironically, accelerate the Soviet Union's collapse.

Now, what if the coup had succeeded, at least in Moscow? Suppose in this timeline the plotters manage to arrest Yeltsin, or even if they don't, that their troops have no compunctions about storming the Russian White House when commanded to do so regardless of the losses they'll inevitably inflict on the oppositionist civilians who have gathered to protect it. Would the State Emergency Committee be able to purge their opponents and keep the Soviet Union going (even just limping) into at least the early 21st century? Or would their actions just touch off a more rapid set of secessions among the peripheral SSRs and/or a civil war in Russia itself?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Given in what state the USSR was at that time, it would be very difficult for them to keep it all together, especially since it seems they were not much of leaders themselves, but jumped up apartchiks.

 

[ATP]

In August of 1991, eight hard-liner opponents of Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms attempted a coup d'etat with the support of the KGB and elements of the military in a bid to 'save' the USSR. They briefly took down communications, claimed to depose Gorbachev in favor of his vice-president Gennady Yanayev, and proclaimed themselves the 'State Committee on the State of Emergency'. However, due to a combination of failing to arrest Boris Yeltsin, some of their troops apparently getting cold feet and refusing to massacre civilians who had gathered to oppose the coup, and the conspirators consequently losing their nerve while Gorbachev and Yeltsin remained standing, the conspiracy failed and some of the plotters killed themselves. All the hard-liners managed to do was, ironically, accelerate the Soviet Union's collapse.

Now, what if the coup had succeeded, at least in Moscow? Suppose in this timeline the plotters manage to arrest Yeltsin, or even if they don't, that their troops have no compunctions about storming the Russian White House when commanded to do so regardless of the losses they'll inevitably inflict on the oppositionist civilians who have gathered to protect it. Would the State Emergency Committee be able to purge their opponents and keep the Soviet Union going (even just limping) into at least the early 21st century? Or would their actions just touch off a more rapid set of secessions among the peripheral SSRs and/or a civil war in Russia itself?

In theory,they could copy-cat China,become capitalists and rich - but in practice,it would be very hard,if possible at all,to made such chance.Especially,that none of those putchist knew anything about economy.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Interesting. From what I've read, it does seem like the plotters were either in over their heads and liable to fold like cheap suits when something went horribly wrong, as they did historically, or went too far in the other direction and were happy to go much further than their soldiers would've agreed to (as also turned out to be the case) - certainly no economist or even just any basically competent, level-headed politician seemed to be among them.

Is it likely that if they had secured power in Moscow, they'd spark a much more destructive meltdown of the USSR? I'd imagine everything outside the center crumbling faster the tighter the State Emergency Committee tries to hang on to it all, or the RSFSR itself collapsing into civil war between those who support the coup and those who oppose it, would mean nothing but bad things for global arms or even nuclear proliferation. Though it'd possibly also mean fewer 'Soviet rump' states: a USSR/Russia in such turmoil probably wouldn't have the time or resources to muck about much in Transnistria or Abkhazia, would it?

 

[Free-Stater 101]

The Soviets most likely will die, they were too far gone at this point. But provided they could stabilize, their position would still be bad with the Warsaw pact dismantled and some of the Baltics are already gone and Ukraine could get messy if they still go for independence but with the coup succeeding the Ukrainian Communist party is unlikely to accede independence.

 

[Circle of Willis]

I think it's more than just the Baltics that the plotters would have to attack if they succeeded in overthrowing Gorbachev & Yeltsin - Georgia seceded from the USSR mid-coup, Moldova did the same a few days later and Ukraine would almost certainly get messy as you said, even if the Ukrainian Communists manage to temporarily thwart the independentists.

They're all pretty small fry except for Ukraine, of course, but I'd imagine the State Emergency Committee wouldn't be able to go after them all right off the bat, since they'd have their hands full just trying to consolidate their rule in Russia first. Even just having to take on Ukraine might be too much for them, depending on how widespread and organized dissent against the gang-of-eight is in the military & Russia itself in general.

I'm not sure how the West might react to the eruption of hostilities: Bush Sr. seemed oddly supportive of the Soviets and cold toward the secession-minded nationalists, but that was while he was dealing with Gorbachev, not the State Emergency Committee which presumably has either arrested or killed him or at least driven him out of the country.

 

[Zero]

What becomes of Putin here?

 

[ATP]

What becomes of Putin here?

Do not matter.In this TL he is one of many KGB colonels - and considered that KGB send to East Germany their less intelligient people,he would be not used.
Remember,in OTL he was made leader by KGB mafia to care about their interests.Becouse there were no more soviet party.
With soviet party still ruling? KGB is still their tool.Which include less then bright colonels.

 

[Free-Stater 101]

What becomes of Putin here?

He becomes director of the KGB and then eventual seizes power.

 

[Circle of Willis]

What becomes of Putin here?

As of August 1991, I think he was working at the Leningrad/St. Petersburg municipal government, and he'd resigned from his KGB service either during or just before the coup kicked off. He'd probably remain insignificant unless the State Emergency Committee had great need of him.

 

[WolfBear]

I think it's more than just the Baltics that the plotters would have to attack if they succeeded in overthrowing Gorbachev & Yeltsin - Georgia seceded from the USSR mid-coup, Moldova did the same a few days later and Ukraine would almost certainly get messy as you said, even if the Ukrainian Communists manage to temporarily thwart the independentists.

They're all pretty small fry except for Ukraine, of course, but I'd imagine the State Emergency Committee wouldn't be able to go after them all right off the bat, since they'd have their hands full just trying to consolidate their rule in Russia first. Even just having to take on Ukraine might be too much for them, depending on how widespread and organized dissent against the gang-of-eight is in the military & Russia itself in general.

I'm not sure how the West might react to the eruption of hostilities: Bush Sr. seemed oddly supportive of the Soviets and cold toward the secession-minded nationalists, but that was while he was dealing with Gorbachev, not the State Emergency Committee which presumably has either arrested or killed him or at least driven him out of the country.

Ukraine would be highly unlikely to try seceding in this scenario because it certainly wouldn't want civil war and extreme bloodshed. It would know that the guys in power in Moscow are actually serious about keeping the Soviet Union together, after all. This isn't 2021, when Ukraine has already tasted independence for a whopping 30-year time period!

As for the US, I would expect the US to place some kind of sanctions on the new Soviet regime, but I don't know quite to what extent. I suppose that it would depend on just how much the new Soviet regime will respect things such as free speech and human rights, which unfortunately I suspect is not that much.

Israel might be a huge loser in this scenario since the flow of Soviet Jewish emigrants might again be reduced to a trickle, which could once again allow the US to accept and absorb most of them, both because the US would be easily capable of doing this but also because the US would feel bad for the remaining Soviet Jews who are now once again stuck living under a totalitarian Communist regime.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Ukraine would be highly unlikely to try seceding in this scenario because it certainly wouldn't want civil war and extreme bloodshed. It would know that the guys in power in Moscow are actually serious about keeping the Soviet Union together, after all. This isn't 2021, when Ukraine has already tasted independence for a whopping 30-year time period!

As for the US, I would expect the US to place some kind of sanctions on the new Soviet regime, but I don't know quite to what extent. I suppose that it would depend on just how much the new Soviet regime will respect things such as free speech and human rights, which unfortunately I suspect is not that much.

Israel might be a huge loser in this scenario since the flow of Soviet Jewish emigrants might again be reduced to a trickle, which could once again allow the US to accept and absorb most of them, both because the US would be easily capable of doing this but also because the US would feel bad for the remaining Soviet Jews who are now once again stuck living under a totalitarian Communist regime.

Maybe, but I share the view of the earlier posters that the USSR of 1991 was a spent force and the Gang of Eight succeeding would have at best delayed the inevitable (at worst, it'd have just thrown the USSR into a civil war, always a more-dangerous-than-usual prospect when nukes are involved). Especially since Yanayev, Yazov, Kryuchkov etc. were hardly able, non-corrupt or popular leaders to begin with. If Ukraine doesn't gain its independence in 1991, it'll probably emerge from the husk of the USSR a few years later anyway.

HW Bush is still President at this time. If his Chicken Kiev speech and other earlier behavior was any indicator, I think he'd try to avoid the impression of aggression and work to contain the new regime in the Kremlin. Verbal condemnation and limited sanctions might be on the table, but little more: AFAIK he didn't even sanction Gorbachev's USSR when it tried to crack down on the Lithuanians earlier in the year (killing 15 IIRC) after all.

I thought the biggest wave of Russian Jews leaving the USSR for Israel already left before the time of the coup? Regardless, best bet for the Soviet Jews to be able to continue their exodus would be if the Gang are only partly successful and kick off a civil war, IMO. That way they have a shot at escaping with others in the inevitable refugee wave, as opposed to getting locked down behind the strict border closure measures which the Gang will almost certainly introduce with their reimposition of a 'hard' dictatorship & reversal of Gorbachev-era measures (including the liberalization of emigration restrictions which set the 1990s aliyah in motion in the first place).

 

[WolfBear]

Maybe, but I share the view of the earlier posters that the USSR of 1991 was a spent force and the Gang of Eight succeeding would have at best delayed the inevitable (at worst, it'd have just thrown the USSR into a civil war, always a more-dangerous-than-usual prospect when nukes are involved). Especially since Yanayev, Yazov, Kryuchkov etc. were hardly able, non-corrupt or popular leaders to begin with. If Ukraine doesn't gain its independence in 1991, it'll probably emerge from the husk of the USSR a few years later anyway.

HW Bush is still President at this time. If his Chicken Kiev speech and other earlier behavior was any indicator, I think he'd try to avoid the impression of aggression and work to contain the new regime in the Kremlin. Verbal condemnation and limited sanctions might be on the table, but little more: AFAIK he didn't even sanction Gorbachev's USSR when it tried to crack down on the Lithuanians earlier in the year (killing 15 IIRC) after all.

I thought the biggest wave of Russian Jews leaving the USSR for Israel already left before the time of the coup? Regardless, best bet for the Soviet Jews to be able to continue their exodus would be if the Gang are only partly successful and kick off a civil war, IMO. That way they have a shot at escaping with others in the inevitable refugee wave, as opposed to getting locked down behind the strict border closure measures which the Gang will almost certainly introduce with their reimposition of a 'hard' dictatorship & reversal of Gorbachev-era measures (including the liberalization of emigration restrictions which set the 1990s aliyah in motion in the first place).

North Korea and Cuba both survived up to the present-day without any civil wars.

Here, the number of casualties might be considerably more than 15, though still nothing short of a civil war, IMHO.

No, there were still plenty of Soviet Jews who wanted to leave for Israel and who hadn't yet done so by the time of the coup, including my own half-Jewish father and his wife (my mother). This is why exactly a huge stream of immigration to Israel from the former Soviet Union continued up to the start of the 21st century in real life.