What if Louis XV held on to Austrian Netherlands at the end of the War of Austrian Succession, 1748?

raharris1973

Well-known member
In OTL, Louis XV gave up France's hard-won gains in Austrian Netherlands (Belgium) , much to the chagrin of the French nobility and public.

What if he held on to those lands? Could he have still gotten a peace signed at Aix La-Chappelle in 1748 to end the expenses of war and British blockade?

Would it make the war last any longer and result in French combat engagements with the Russian contingents arriving on the Rhine?

Assuming a settlement is possible, how do the terms differ from OTL other than continued occupation of Austrian Netherlands by France? Did Austria or its allies hold the territory of any of France's allies at the time, (in Italy perhaps) that it might keep in retaliation?

Britain and Netherlands would be most disturbed by French expansion into Austrian Netherlands. Could they afford to keep the war going?

I suppose in retaliation for French aggrandizement, the British would hold on to conquered Louisbourg off North America and not give it back. But, in retaliation against that, the French could hold on to Madras in India.

I would imagine in order to agree to sign a peace that leaves the southern Netherlands with France, Britain will insist on getting Madras back, *and* hold Louisbourg, and its blockade capabilities and financial endurance could give it the leverage to make its demands stick at a conference.

Anyway, moving on to a post-war situation, how would France deal with and administer a permanently occupied/controlled southern Netherlands?

Would they directly annex the land to France, or put it under a minor Bourbon house as a satellite state? If annexed into France, what kind of tax regime would it be under, and what internal trade barriers would remain with other parts of France. I ask because the territory has manufacturing, even industrial potential, and revenue-producing potential, but the ability of the French government to benefit and use it to solve its fiscal problems will depend on the precise tax regime and concessions the territory is under.

What would be the longer term fate, post 1750, of that ugly, interrupting strip of territory in the middle, the Archbishopric of Liege?
 
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Russian contingents arriving on the Rhine?
???
Tsaritsa Elizabeth was sending troops into the Rheinland?!?
Besides being the subject of assault by France's attack dog, Sweden, I thought that Russia sat out the War of Austrian Succession?
What would be the longer term fate, post 1750, of that ugly, interrupting strip of territory in the middle, the Archbishopric of Liege?
Annexed by expansionist French imperialists.

Good food for thought, this scenario. I suspect that France holding on to all of Austrian Netherlands prolongs the war, Britain throwing more money at continental suppliers of armies.

I don't think that Madras and/or Louisbourg would show up on the political radar when the fate of Bruges, Ghent or Antwerp is in play.

If Britain somehow accepts France taking A-N then Austria losing Silesia AND Netherlands will make Marie-Theresie even more pissed off at the world in general and Britain in particular. In OTL Britain not caring about her recovery of Silesia soured her enough into the Diplomatic Revolution.
 
???
Tsaritsa Elizabeth was sending troops into the Rheinland?!?
Besides being the subject of assault by France's attack dog, Sweden, I thought that Russia sat out the War of Austrian Succession?

I'm basing this claim off wiki, War of the Austrian Succession - Wikipedia:

These events lent greater urgency to ongoing peace talks at the Congress of Breda, which took place to the sound of French artillery firing on Maastricht. Following their 1746 alliance with Austria, an army of 30,000 Russians [ru] marched from Livonia to the Rhine, but arrived too late to be of use. Maastricht surrendered on 7 May and on 18 October 1748, the war ended with the signing of the Peace of Aix-la-Chapelle.War of the Austrian Succession - Wikipedia
War of the Austrian Succession - Wikipedia

If Britain somehow accepts France taking A-N then Austria losing Silesia AND Netherlands will make Marie-Theresie even more pissed off at the world in general and Britain in particular. In OTL Britain not caring about her recovery of Silesia soured her enough into the Diplomatic Revolution.

No doubt she's double-pissed off at Britain. But here France has ripped off something directly from her. Can she overcome that insult and still ally with France, or be unable to choose between the two western evils? Geez - three western evils. It's almost like Austria could come to a conclusion that Russia and Turkey could be better partners than the Prussians, French, or British.
 
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Thanks for the info about Russian troops in Germany.
IMO the war rages on until France gives up MOST of Austrian Netherlands.
 
Thanks for the info about Russian troops in Germany.
IMO the war rages on until France gives up MOST of Austrian Netherlands.

You're sure the others can keep throwing soldiers at the French occupied Netherlands, maybe even regain some ground, as the French dig in and fortify, for longer than the French can sustain their resistance? The French do have the initial advantage of sitting atop the metaphorical mountain they want to be King of, for the moment - possession being 9/10ths of the law?
 
This is not WWI hence "dig in and fortify" does not apply :)
Unless metaphorically.
IMO yes, the Allies had the money to keep going.
 
Could the Allies ignore the bypass Austrian Netherlands and invade France proper in order to force Louis to come to terms?
Of course!
This is 1748 and not 1948.
France had maybe 300-400K men on all fronts. Lots of holes :)
All such an operation requires is breaking with the orthodox military thinking of the day. Look at how the armies of the 1st French Republic acted, with 99% identical tech - it was an Art of War issue :)
So all it takes is a maverik commander - Eugene of Savoy, Henry of Prussia, maybe Suvorov - to do it.

Enough if somebody in a position of power and/or command brushes up on their classics and emulates e.g. Emperor Heraklius' campaigns which broke Khosrow.
 
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In OTL, Louis XV gave up France's hard-won gains in Austrian Netherlands (Belgium) , much to the chagrin of the French nobility and public.

What if he held on to those lands? Could he have still gotten a peace signed at Aix La-Chappelle in 1748 to end the expenses of war and British blockade?

Would it make the war last any longer and result in French combat engagements with the Russian contingents arriving on the Rhine?

Assuming a settlement is possible, how do the terms differ from OTL other than continued occupation of Austrian Netherlands by France? Did Austria or its allies hold the territory of any of France's allies at the time, (in Italy perhaps) that it might keep in retaliation?

Britain and Netherlands would be most disturbed by French expansion into Austrian Netherlands. Could they afford to keep the war going?

I suppose in retaliation for French aggrandizement, the British would hold on to conquered Louisbourg off North America and not give it back. But, in retaliation against that, the French could hold on to Madras in India.

I would imagine in order to agree to sign a peace that leaves the southern Netherlands with France, Britain will insist on getting Madras back, *and* hold Louisbourg, and its blockade capabilities and financial endurance could give it the leverage to make its demands stick at a conference.

Sounds reasonable, especially the last paragraph here.

Anyway, moving on to a post-war situation, how would France deal with and administer a permanently occupied/controlled southern Netherlands?

Would they directly annex the land to France, or put it under a minor Bourbon house as a satellite state? If annexed into France, what kind of tax regime would it be under, and what internal trade barriers would remain with other parts of France. I ask because the territory has manufacturing, even industrial potential, and revenue-producing potential, but the ability of the French government to benefit and use it to solve its fiscal problems will depend on the precise tax regime and concessions the territory is under.

I suspect that direct annexation would be the most likely solution here. If direct annexation is not done in 1748, then doing it later could create a crisis, especially if the relevant Bourbon house will eventually succeed to the French throne as well due to all of the other more senior Bourbon branches already dying out.

I do wonder if a French annexation of the Austrian Netherlands makes the British more likely to oppose the French purchase of Corsica later on, though:


This means that the French get Belgium but end up losing Napoleon--unless of course he decides to move to France for whatever reason!

What would be the longer term fate, post 1750, of that ugly, interrupting strip of territory in the middle, the Archbishopric of Liege?

Eventual annexation of it into France?
 
Could the Allies ignore the bypass Austrian Netherlands and invade France proper in order to force Louis to come to terms?

But France can legitimately say "If Frederick the Great is keeping resource-rich Silesia, why exactly can't we keep the resource-rich Austrian Netherlands?"

Maybe Britain can have Antwerp if it will reduce British anxieties about this.
 

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