raharris1973
Well-known member
In real life, Austria's Engelbert Dolfuss was a reactionary Catholic Conservative son of a postman who was short in stature at 5 feet but tall in guts, ruthlessly suppressing his Socialist and Nazi opposition until he was assassinated in 1934. After he was assassinated by Nazis, the Austrofascist state and movement, led by successor Kurt Schussnigg, inspired and supported by the institutions Dolfuss had set up domestically and his foreign alliance, with Italy, was able to survive almost four more years before surrendering to a now stronger Nazi Germany in 1938. This was contrary to the hopes of Austrian Nazis in 1933 and 1934, who became eager to take over as soon as Hitler took over in Germany, and thought, wrongly, the killing of Dolfuss would remove their last obstacle to their taking power.
Well, what if the leading figures in the ruling Christian Social Party in Austria, a different Dolfuss, or somebody else in his place, just aren't made of stern stuff, they let the Nazis rally unimpeded, typically let the justice system go easy on right-wing violence (including Nazis this time) while being harsh on leftist militias, and, rather than doing a crackdown on the Nazis, fold to their ever-increasing demands, leading fairly quickly to a coalition with Nazis, then takeover, then unification plebiscite. In the meantime, those Austrian non-Nazis fail to reach out and make any alliances with Mussolini.
So by the end of 1934, Nazi control of Austria is becoming irreversible, and the non-Nazi leaders are just content getting out-maneuvered, retired, or leaving the country.
Arthur Seyss-Inquart, the head of the Austrian-Nazi government, schedules a referendum on unification with Germany for Jan. 1, 1915, and it wins with 99% of the vote.
How is subsequent European history affected?
France and especially Italy I imagine would be very unhappy. Britain would find the speed of events and thuggishness of street events and ridiculous margin disturbing, but would never consider move a casus belli or something Britain should be obligated to interfere with. France is more bothered, but it lacks a common border with Austria. Although it does have a common border with Germany, if truly determined to intervene. But the Maginot Line investment is sort of a hint that intervening in Germany is pretty unlikely.
Will Italy intervene to stop the plebiscite, the execution of plebiscite, and overthrow the Austrian Nazis, without anyone in Austria, aside from some ideologically anathema lefties, showing any willingness to resist?
I imagine this quick and precocious Anschluss would leave the Italians feeling sore for awhile, even if it is a fait accompli, but depending how long events on the continent take to rise to a continent-wide showdown, the Italians will also have time to acclimate to the new reality and having a new neighbor, basically "get over it", and possibly also come to disagreement with the British and French on other matters.
Does the merger of Germany and Austria, effective pretty much at the beginning of 1935, lead to an immediate confrontation and race to prepare for confrontation between Grossdeutschland and Czechoslovakia? If so, Germany is in all senses starting that race or period of tension from a lower base of armed strength, not having conscription or its Air Force revived, and not having the Rhineland refortified. The only advantage Germany does have over OTL, is an earlier absorption of Austria's land, population, and money, and the geographic encircling edge that provides.
The Czechs are in some ways given more warning time they can possibly use to fort up before any attack, but, Sudeten German activism is likely to start earlier, and they are going to have to be planning for a nearly 300-degree defense around their encircled border.
What will this all lead to over the next few years?
Well, what if the leading figures in the ruling Christian Social Party in Austria, a different Dolfuss, or somebody else in his place, just aren't made of stern stuff, they let the Nazis rally unimpeded, typically let the justice system go easy on right-wing violence (including Nazis this time) while being harsh on leftist militias, and, rather than doing a crackdown on the Nazis, fold to their ever-increasing demands, leading fairly quickly to a coalition with Nazis, then takeover, then unification plebiscite. In the meantime, those Austrian non-Nazis fail to reach out and make any alliances with Mussolini.
So by the end of 1934, Nazi control of Austria is becoming irreversible, and the non-Nazi leaders are just content getting out-maneuvered, retired, or leaving the country.
Arthur Seyss-Inquart, the head of the Austrian-Nazi government, schedules a referendum on unification with Germany for Jan. 1, 1915, and it wins with 99% of the vote.
How is subsequent European history affected?
France and especially Italy I imagine would be very unhappy. Britain would find the speed of events and thuggishness of street events and ridiculous margin disturbing, but would never consider move a casus belli or something Britain should be obligated to interfere with. France is more bothered, but it lacks a common border with Austria. Although it does have a common border with Germany, if truly determined to intervene. But the Maginot Line investment is sort of a hint that intervening in Germany is pretty unlikely.
Will Italy intervene to stop the plebiscite, the execution of plebiscite, and overthrow the Austrian Nazis, without anyone in Austria, aside from some ideologically anathema lefties, showing any willingness to resist?
I imagine this quick and precocious Anschluss would leave the Italians feeling sore for awhile, even if it is a fait accompli, but depending how long events on the continent take to rise to a continent-wide showdown, the Italians will also have time to acclimate to the new reality and having a new neighbor, basically "get over it", and possibly also come to disagreement with the British and French on other matters.
Does the merger of Germany and Austria, effective pretty much at the beginning of 1935, lead to an immediate confrontation and race to prepare for confrontation between Grossdeutschland and Czechoslovakia? If so, Germany is in all senses starting that race or period of tension from a lower base of armed strength, not having conscription or its Air Force revived, and not having the Rhineland refortified. The only advantage Germany does have over OTL, is an earlier absorption of Austria's land, population, and money, and the geographic encircling edge that provides.
The Czechs are in some ways given more warning time they can possibly use to fort up before any attack, but, Sudeten German activism is likely to start earlier, and they are going to have to be planning for a nearly 300-degree defense around their encircled border.
What will this all lead to over the next few years?
