What if Austria refuses the Ausgleich on Hungarian terms in 1866-67?

raharris1973

Well-known member
1. What if Austria resists Ausgleich, or refuses to accept Hungarian terms, setting constitutional limits on on Magyar ascendancy?

Can/will Magyars revolt?

Can/will Vienna have the wherewithal to suppress Magyar revolt in 1866-1867?

Given bad blood, would Russians intervene to actively aid Magyar rebellion?

Given irredentism, would Italians intervene in tandem with Magyar rebellion? Are they ready for a rematch so soon?

Would any others, Ottomans, Romanians, or Serbs, aid the Magyars? Or the Viennese side?

What stance would the North German Confederation take, or Bavaria?

Within Greater Hungary, would non-Magyars join in the Hungarian revolt?

Could Vienna play the Slavic or Romanian or peasantry card against the Magyars in suppressing a revolt?



2. What if Austria establishes a quadruple, quintuple, or sextuple monarchy instead of a dual monarchy in 1866?

Quadruple: Austria-Hungary-Bohemia-Croatia

Quintuple: Austria-Hungary-Bohemia-Croatia-Galicia/Lodomeria

Sextuple: Austria-Hungary-Bohemia-Croatia-Galicia/Lodomeria-Transylvania


If doing this would there be revolts? If there would be revolts, could they be brought under control?


Would foreign powers – like Russia, Italy, Romania, Ottomans, NGC, intervene?
 
This might be a good time to implement the United States of Greater Austria plan if someone is able to come up with it four decades earlier:


Greater_austria_ethnic.svg


In such a scenario, Austria-Hungary could become a federation similar to the US, except with a monarch.
 
If Austria denies Hungary special status and suppresses any revolt in a year or two, it can proceed in foreign policy without having Hungary say “no” all the time.

Does that mean that by the 1870s, when the Russo-Turkish war breaks out, Austria can have funded a larger army and also go with Bismarck’s idea of partitioning the Ottoman Balkans with Russia, taking the western half and the route to Salonica into its own sphere?
 
Does that mean that by the 1870s, when the Russo-Turkish war breaks out, Austria can have funded a larger army and also go with Bismarck’s idea of partitioning the Ottoman Balkans with Russia, taking the western half and the route to Salonica into its own sphere?

Very possibly? It might also get Albania if it wants it--or would giving Italy Albania be the price for Italian entry into the Triple Alliance in this TL?

Would the Ottoman Empire in Asia and Constantinople remain intact?
 
Could Austria in the 1860s have instead devised:
a more workable version of federalism would have been to leverage the Empire’s small administrative divisions and create a state where a lot of power was devolved to local government with the national government handling national defense and foreign policy, plus the kinds of things that are run out of Brussels and Frankfurt in contemporary Europe. ....
The expectation would be that schooling would be available in one or two local languages of instruction in every locality, that every non-German student would be taught German as a foreign language, and that every German student would choose from one of the other languages of the empire.

from: The case for the Austro-Hungarian Empire (slowboring.com)
 
Could Austria in the 1860s have instead devised:

from: The case for the Austro-Hungarian Empire (slowboring.com)

You mean similar to Switzerland? I suppose that this might be possible if this has the Emperor's consent. Interestingly enough, this idea has also been flirted in this recent alternate history academic article, albeit for the 1910s in a no-WWI scenario:


The assassin was arrested on the spot. She was Ilona Duczyńska, a young half- Polish radical socialist.26 Hungary was shaken by the death of the man who was admired by many as a great patriot and statesman, and hated at least by as many. Speaking on behalf of the government at his burial, Jakabffy, who was a former follower of Tisza, said in an eloquent speech that the deep love the murdered statesman felt towards his country led him down an erroneous path; he thought that the territorial integrity of the country could be maintained only through the hegemony of the Magyars. In reality, the path to be taken was its opposite, by following the spirit of 1848 in order to harmonize and unify the interests of all the social and ethnic groups, to establish the genuine equality of all the nationalities of Hungary by recognizing them as partners. In this way, common economic and political interests could preserve the unity of the historical kingdom. The following day the prime minister spoke in the legislature. Recalling the stature and great achievements of the fallen leader, he pointed out that in 1848 Hungary had introduced the most democratic electoral law in Europe, but since then, instead of expanding it, those in power had only narrowed it, going against the spirit of the times and the spread of democracy. He reminded the House of Kossuth’s policies in exile, the proposal of a Danubian Confederation, the intentions of Deák and Eötvös with the 1868 Law on Nationalities, adding that the law could have been even better had an alternative bill submitted by Alexander Mocsonyi, a Romanian MP representing Temes county, been accepted. It proposed ‘to recognize the Romanians, Serbs, Slovaks, Rusyns, and Germans, besides the Magyars, as equal nations of the country, entitled to fly their own national colours on the public buildings of their region beside the flag of the Hungarian state. The counties, districts, and constituencies should be formed so as to reflect linguistic composition, by making them, as far as possible, ethnically compact, or at least having an absolute or relative majority for one national group.

In each administrative unit, the language of the majority would be the official language, but where there was a substantial national minority, its language could be a second official language. The Hungarian language would, however, be the common diplomatic language throughout the kingdom.’27 If the Hungarian parliament had accepted this wording, the prime minister argued, an agreement between the peoples of Hungary, the regnum Hungariae, could have been reached fifty years earlier. That was indeed the direction taken by the Parliament in a law passed in July 1849, and that was the position of Kossuth and László Teleki28 during their exile.

With the dramatic death of Tisza, passions unexpectedly subsided. Andrássy Jr, Tisza’s friend in youth and later political rival, made an abrupt about-face, calling for reconciliation within the Hungarian body politic and with the non-Hungarian nationalities. He assured the new king, Charles IV, of his loyalty, and proposed his early coronation. Károlyi and his party followed suit. The ceremony took place in the Buda Castle on 30 December 1918, before the imperial coronation in Vienna in the spring. The celebrations were solemn and calm, with strong security, organized again by Minister Bánffy. In the spirit of general reconciliation, the young ruler appointed Andrássy, who was a foreign policy expert, foreign minister of Austria–Hungary, placing him in the seat of his father, Gyula Andrássy Sr.

On 15 March, the day of the 1848 liberal revolution, Oszkár Jászi, the Minister for the National Minorities, submitted three bills on self-government (partly territorial, partly cultural) for the Slovaks, Rusyns, and Germans. The model was the cantonal system of Switzerland. A separate bill changed the borders of the counties (and the constituencies) so as to make them correspond, as far as possible, to the national composition of the population. In the overwhelmingly Romanian, Saxon, and Serb counties, cultural autonomy ensured the use of the language of the majority in the schools and in local government, naturally without restricting the use of Hungarian. After often heated debates, the House passed the new laws with overwhelming majorities. King Charles deliberately chose to endorse these laws on 11 April, the day when his predecessor approved the famous April Laws in 1848, the foundation of modern constitutional Hungary. The world press was full of praise for the Hungarians who had voluntarily given up their privileges for the second time since 1848. A leading article in The Times congratulated both the Hungarians and their minorities. It said that by recognizing the European mission of the Monarchy and their basic common interests, they had overcome the policy of national egotism, and with that, they called upon the peoples living in the other half of the realm of the Habsburgs to follow this example. According to the archives of The Times, the author of the article was the foreign editor, H. W. Steed.29 The National Széchényi Library holds his letter to Mrs Ferenc Hampel, née Polyxena Pulszky, dated 12 April 1918. ‘Dear Poly, I’ll never forget the warm welcome you gave me and Rose in your home seventeen years ago. I know that a few years later you were pained reading my critical reports of the Hungarian Coalition, because you felt they were attacks on your nation. The dramatic events of the last two years—I am confident—justified both of us: among the Hungarians the political acumen and responsibility which marked Deák, Eötvös, and the young István Tisza, have come to prevail. You, my dear Poly, your late father, your husband and sons were such outstanding representatives of that tradition. Fifty years after the Ausgleich, the wisest Hungarian leaders concluded with the dynasty and its Austro-German people, a new generation of gifted Hungarians have brought about an even more difficult compact with their own national minorities. That is what your respected father, Ferenc, and his friend, Lajos Kossuth, wished for in the years of their exile. It is now that the vision of the great István Széchenyi can be realized, so that the multinational Kingdom of Hungary’s future may be even brighter than its glory was in its best former periods.’30

The official name, ‘Austro-Hungarian Monarchy’ was maintained, but in the press of Europe (also in Hungary) and in public speech, the customary term was simply ‘the Monarchy’, or abroad often ‘the Central European Monarchy’. On the fifth anniversary of the coronation of Charles IV as King of Hungary, the Parliament— with a small majority—decided that the official name of their country would be Hungária Magyarországi Királyság. In German it would remain Königreich Ungarn, in French Royaume de Hongrie, in English the Kingdom of Hungary.
 
1. What if Austria resists Ausgleich, or refuses to accept Hungarian terms, setting constitutional limits on on Magyar ascendancy?

Can/will Magyars revolt?

Can/will Vienna have the wherewithal to suppress Magyar revolt in 1866-1867?

Given bad blood, would Russians intervene to actively aid Magyar rebellion?

Given irredentism, would Italians intervene in tandem with Magyar rebellion? Are they ready for a rematch so soon?

Would any others, Ottomans, Romanians, or Serbs, aid the Magyars? Or the Viennese side?

What stance would the North German Confederation take, or Bavaria?

Within Greater Hungary, would non-Magyars join in the Hungarian revolt?

Could Vienna play the Slavic or Romanian or peasantry card against the Magyars in suppressing a revolt?



2. What if Austria establishes a quadruple, quintuple, or sextuple monarchy instead of a dual monarchy in 1866?

Quadruple: Austria-Hungary-Bohemia-Croatia

Quintuple: Austria-Hungary-Bohemia-Croatia-Galicia/Lodomeria

Sextuple: Austria-Hungary-Bohemia-Croatia-Galicia/Lodomeria-Transylvania


If doing this would there be revolts? If there would be revolts, could they be brought under control?


Would foreign powers – like Russia, Italy, Romania, Ottomans, NGC, intervene?

1 - they would fall,and Russia with Prussia would made partition to prevent forming independent states.
2.- it should work,but without polish part.It must provoke Russia,Prussia,or both to attack.
Such state woud be in better shape during WW1,but still lost.
Only that this time,A--H/without polish parts/ would survive - no USA wanting destroy them becouse czech wonted it.
 
1 - they would fall,and Russia with Prussia would made partition to prevent forming independent states.

What would each of the two take? And would they allow no independent states? No independent Hungary at all even?

Would any third countries like Italy or Romania be allowed to get anything?
 
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What would each of the two take? And would they allow no independent states? No independent Hungary at all even?

Would any third countries like Italy or Romania be allowed to get anything?

german german parts,russian slavic parts.Italy could get something,but not Romania,since here we would have hungarian puppet state.Probably puppet to germans,not russians,becouse russians would get more lands.
 

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