raharris1973
Well-known member
What if Austria intervened in October 1912 against Montenegro/Serbia in the 1st Balkan War?
Can the Austrians, by mobilizing/threatening/intervening against the South Slavs, stop the war in its tracks and save the Ottoman position in the Balkans? Or would the Balkan powers and Russia only escalate countermoves, leading to an early WWI from 1912? How would that war work out?
I can imagine two, subtly different, scenarios.
Scenario 1. Here, when Montenegro precociously declares war on the Ottoman Empire on October 8th, Austria is provoked by October 9th to issue a 24 hour ultimatum to Montenegro to cease and desist, and announces a foreign policy doctrine that any unilateral alteration of Balkan borders by force is unacceptable, especially in the Sanjak of Novi Pazar, an Ottoman district between Montenegro and Serbia that Austria had garrisoned and protected for thirty years.
Austria mobilizes to back up its threat.
This is diplomatically inconvenient for Austria and Germany to be providing such “cover” for the Ottomans at this moment, because although the Italian-Ottoman war is *almost* over, it is still 9 days before the signing of the formal
Italian-Ottoman armistice at Ouchy.
Austria hastens to note that any conflict with Serbia does *not* mean conflict with its ally Italy.
Do the Ottomans use the Austrian support to be more stubborn vs. Italy and drag things out? Or is it too late for that with the Balkans on the brink?
Are the Italians greatly offended by the Austrian move, or does it fast become irrelevant when they sign their treaty confirming control of Libya days later?
With Austria mobilizing, does Montenegro back off from war, or defy Austria and keep going? Does Serbia decide against going to war, or plunge ahead? What about the other Balkan League members like Bulgaria and Greece?
If it comes to war of Austria and Ottomans vs Balkan states , does the war remain regional, favoring the two large status quo powers? Or does Russia mobilize to prevent the defeat of the Balkan states?
Scenario 2 - Austria feels constrained from acting for as long as Italy and Turkey remain at war, despite worries about the Balkans, but vocally advocates for peace and the status quo in the Balkans, begins mobilization and consults with Germany and Romania about instability fears of enlarged, emboldened Serbia and Bulgaria.
Montenegro’s October 8th DoW passes by without Austrian reaction. However the Italian Turkish treaty of October 17 frees Austria to act. On Oct 18 Serbia, Bulgaria, and Greece all declare war on the Ottoman Empire. Hours later, Austria issues an ultimatum to all of them, or at least Serbia and Montenegro to stand down and stay on their side of the border. Do the Balkans stand down or stay on the attack?
If the Balkans persist, the Austrians can attack the Serbs and Montenegrins from the back effectively, though perhaps not before the latter inflict a few defeats on the Turks. Could the Romanians, with Austrian urging and support, be interested in attacking Bulgaria in the back, with northern Dobruja as their reward? To neutralize the effect of Greek naval dominance on limiting Turkish reinforcement flow to the Balkans, could the Austrians sortie their fleet outside the Adriatic to contest the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean- creating an opening for Turkish transports?
Does this struggle remain regional to the Balkans, or do the Russians intervene, bringing about WWI?
Can the Austrians, by mobilizing/threatening/intervening against the South Slavs, stop the war in its tracks and save the Ottoman position in the Balkans? Or would the Balkan powers and Russia only escalate countermoves, leading to an early WWI from 1912? How would that war work out?
I can imagine two, subtly different, scenarios.
Scenario 1. Here, when Montenegro precociously declares war on the Ottoman Empire on October 8th, Austria is provoked by October 9th to issue a 24 hour ultimatum to Montenegro to cease and desist, and announces a foreign policy doctrine that any unilateral alteration of Balkan borders by force is unacceptable, especially in the Sanjak of Novi Pazar, an Ottoman district between Montenegro and Serbia that Austria had garrisoned and protected for thirty years.
Austria mobilizes to back up its threat.
This is diplomatically inconvenient for Austria and Germany to be providing such “cover” for the Ottomans at this moment, because although the Italian-Ottoman war is *almost* over, it is still 9 days before the signing of the formal
Italian-Ottoman armistice at Ouchy.
Austria hastens to note that any conflict with Serbia does *not* mean conflict with its ally Italy.
Do the Ottomans use the Austrian support to be more stubborn vs. Italy and drag things out? Or is it too late for that with the Balkans on the brink?
Are the Italians greatly offended by the Austrian move, or does it fast become irrelevant when they sign their treaty confirming control of Libya days later?
With Austria mobilizing, does Montenegro back off from war, or defy Austria and keep going? Does Serbia decide against going to war, or plunge ahead? What about the other Balkan League members like Bulgaria and Greece?
If it comes to war of Austria and Ottomans vs Balkan states , does the war remain regional, favoring the two large status quo powers? Or does Russia mobilize to prevent the defeat of the Balkan states?
Scenario 2 - Austria feels constrained from acting for as long as Italy and Turkey remain at war, despite worries about the Balkans, but vocally advocates for peace and the status quo in the Balkans, begins mobilization and consults with Germany and Romania about instability fears of enlarged, emboldened Serbia and Bulgaria.
Montenegro’s October 8th DoW passes by without Austrian reaction. However the Italian Turkish treaty of October 17 frees Austria to act. On Oct 18 Serbia, Bulgaria, and Greece all declare war on the Ottoman Empire. Hours later, Austria issues an ultimatum to all of them, or at least Serbia and Montenegro to stand down and stay on their side of the border. Do the Balkans stand down or stay on the attack?
If the Balkans persist, the Austrians can attack the Serbs and Montenegrins from the back effectively, though perhaps not before the latter inflict a few defeats on the Turks. Could the Romanians, with Austrian urging and support, be interested in attacking Bulgaria in the back, with northern Dobruja as their reward? To neutralize the effect of Greek naval dominance on limiting Turkish reinforcement flow to the Balkans, could the Austrians sortie their fleet outside the Adriatic to contest the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean- creating an opening for Turkish transports?
Does this struggle remain regional to the Balkans, or do the Russians intervene, bringing about WWI?