What if ASBs grabbed Mao, Zhou Enlai, Nixon and Kissinger from 1972 and brought them to the present day?

[raharris1973]

What if ASBs grabbed Mao, Zhou Enlai, Nixon and Kissinger from 1972 and brought them to the present day, and then briefed them on the Taiwan situation, the modern Sino-US military rivalry, and Sino-Russian relations?

Would Mao and Zhou feel surprised/betrayed that 50 years after the Shanghai Communique acknowledging all Chinese believe there is one China, that unification with Taiwan still hasn't happened, and that the US has taken an obstructionist stance on the Taiwan issue for the last 30 years? Would Mao and Zhou, who were deathly afraid of Soviet attack in the early 1970s, be surprised that Sino-Russian relations have been basically positive over the last 30 years, with both seeing America as the way bigger problem/threat than each other?

If deposited back in their normal selves after seeing this preview of the future, would they alter any of their early 1970s decisions, especially on foreign policy?

Would Nixon and Kissinger be surprised that fifty years later Taiwan still remains separate from China, and America retains a string of Pacific Rim bases and allies? Would they be surprised that Sino-Russian relations have been basically positive over the last 30 years, with both seeing America as the way bigger problem/threat than each other?

If deposited back in their normal selves after seeing this preview of the future, would they alter any of their early 1970s decisions, especially on foreign policy?

 

[WolfBear]

Would Mao and Zhou feel surprised/betrayed that 50 years after the Shanghai Communique acknowledging all Chinese believe there is one China, that unification with Taiwan still hasn't happened,

No, due to the US's continued military advantage over China up to the 2020s. However, this could change in the future.

and that the US has taken an obstructionist stance on the Taiwan issue for the last 30 years?

No; the US was always full of anti-Communist war hawks.

Would Mao and Zhou, who were deathly afraid of Soviet attack in the early 1970s, be surprised that Sino-Russian relations have been basically positive over the last 30 years, with both seeing America as the way bigger problem/threat than each other?

They'd be incredibly surprised that the USSR has collapsed, most likely, but they wouldn't view a Sino-Russian rapprochement post-Soviet collapse as actually being unrealistic since they'd realize that due to Russia's weakened strength, Russia would need some kind of strong ally, and China is the only realistic game in town for this once Russia's relations with the West went severely sour in 2014 and beyond.

If deposited back in their normal selves after seeing this preview of the future, would they alter any of their early 1970s decisions, especially on foreign policy?

On foreign policy, No. But I wonder if Mao might decide to purge Deng Xiaoping so that he can't succeed him. I mean purge in a final sense, late-1930s Stalinist-style. Though maybe Mao could simply be convinced that the free market actually works better than a command economy does.

Would Nixon and Kissinger be surprised that fifty years later Taiwan still remains separate from China, and America retains a string of Pacific Rim bases and allies?

No.

Would they be surprised that Sino-Russian relations have been basically positive over the last 30 years, with both seeing America as the way bigger problem/threat than each other?

Maybe, but I'm not sure. It's sort of to be expected after all of the mistakes that the West have made in their relations with Russia between 1991 and 2014.

If deposited back in their normal selves after seeing this preview of the future, would they alter any of their early 1970s decisions, especially on foreign policy?

On foreign policy, No. But again, there is a chance that Mao might decide to definitely purge Deng Xiaoping once he finds out what he will do after Mao's death.

 

[raharris1973]

No, due to the US's continued military advantage over China up to the 2020s. However, this could change in the future.

So, they knew when they were making the US make statements about Taiwan and China being one during rapprochement and the normalization process, that it was just for show, and America wasn't really giving any kind of free hand to the PRC towards Taiwan? [so China wanted rapprochement for trade and anti-Soviet security reasons in the 70s, and discussion about Taiwan as an 'obstacle' was just psychological theater for their internal audiences]

And they would not be surprised that American capitalism is robust enough to support American militarist protection of Taiwan and other Pacific Rim allies fifty years? And that China's patriotic and military pride, drive & willingness to sacrifice for national unity is so weak that China hasn't overwhelmed Taiwan in that time? Wouldn't they think that succeeding generations of Chinese are patriotically pathetic and soft compared to the generations of the Sino-Japanese War, Chinese Civil War, and Korean War?

No; the US was always full of anti-Communist war hawks.

They'd be incredibly surprised that the USSR has collapsed, most likely, but they wouldn't view a Sino-Russian rapprochement post-Soviet collapse as actually being unrealistic since they'd realize that due to Russia's weakened strength, Russia would need some kind of strong ally, and China is the only realistic game in town for this once Russia's relations with the West went severely sour in 2014 and beyond.

So they wouldn't be surprised that the Chinese Communist Party actually gets along better with a Russia that isn't trying to be Communist than it gets along with a Russia "that calls itself Communist but is doing it wrong", ie, the Soviet Union?

On foreign policy, No. But I wonder if Mao might decide to purge Deng Xiaoping so that he can't succeed him. I mean purge in a final sense, late-1930s Stalinist-style. Though maybe Mao could simply be convinced that the free market actually works better than a command economy does.

Well, might they think it a mistake to help the US and west win the Cold War, and re-think the necessity of continuous hostility with the USSR? Or recalibrate to a different position, opening up to America in the seventies, but opening up to the Soviet Union, much earlier, to not make things so easy on the US, and try to work for more leverage on the Taiwan issue?

 

[WolfBear]

So, they knew when they were making the US make statements about Taiwan and China being one during rapprochement and the normalization process, that it was just for show, and America wasn't really giving any kind of free hand to the PRC towards Taiwan? [so China wanted rapprochement for trade and anti-Soviet security reasons in the 70s, and discussion about Taiwan as an 'obstacle' was just psychological theater for their internal audiences]

The US derecognized Taiwan but never actually said that it wasn't going to defend Taiwan from a forced Chinese reunification attempt, now did it? Rather, AFAIK, the US left this question vague, possibly on purpose.

And they would not be surprised that American capitalism is robust enough to support American militarist protection of Taiwan and other Pacific Rim allies fifty years?

Why should they be? They might be surprised as how Wokeness is currently destroying the US from within, though!

And that China's patriotic and military pride, drive & willingness to sacrifice for national unity is so weak that China hasn't overwhelmed Taiwan in that time? Wouldn't they think that succeeding generations of Chinese are patriotically pathetic and soft compared to the generations of the Sino-Japanese War, Chinese Civil War, and Korean War?

China started out from such a low place in the 1970s that it would take decades for China to compete against the US. I mean, for goodness sake, per capita, China was poorer than Haiti in 1976 if I recall correctly. Freaking Haiti! And Chinese would expect to be able to compete with the US shortly afterwards? Yeah, not going to happen. Maybe 50+ years from the 1970s, but certainly not anytime soon relative to the 1970s!

So they wouldn't be surprised that the Chinese Communist Party actually gets along better with a Russia that isn't trying to be Communist than it gets along with a Russia "that calls itself Communist but is doing it wrong", ie, the Soviet Union?

No, because a Russia without Ukraine, et cetera is considerably weaker and thus more deferential to China.

Well, might they think it a mistake to help the US and west win the Cold War, and re-think the necessity of continuous hostility with the USSR? Or recalibrate to a different position, opening up to America in the seventies, but opening up to the Soviet Union, much earlier, to not make things so even on the US, and try to work for more leverage on the Taiwan issue?

TBH, I think that things have worked out rather fine for China. The collapse of the USSR allowed China to become the dominant hegemon in Eurasia and also allowed the US to become dominated by superpower hubris up to the point that it pursued a Muslim-centric foreign policy for 20+ years. Meanwhile, China simply slowly rose, developed, and industrialized and also gave the world a giant stinker in the early 2020s with the coronavirus! So, No, I don't think that China would have actually wanted to change much, if anything. Taiwan can wait. They can have their same-sex marriage and boba tea in the meantime.