The US from March 1, 1940 is ISOT'd forward in time to March 1, 2022, and the reverse

[WolfBear]

What if the US from March 1, 1940 is ISOT'd forward in time to March 1, 2022, and the reverse?

Some thoughts:

1. 1940 US to the 2022 world: Ukraine loses an extremely massive supply of Western aid due to losing the present-day US. Can Europe realistically make up for this shortfall in aid to Ukraine? Or is Europe going to be compelled to seek a deal with Putin in regards to Ukraine, especially considering that the US would no longer be in NATO in such a scenario and would not have much of a desire or capability to protect Europe--and not to mention having two times less people than it has in real life?

2. 2022 US to the 1940 world: Could this be enough to prevent the Fall of France a couple of months later? If not, though, then France should still fight on since the US would have such overwhelmingly massive power projection that it's not going to be funny. The crucial question, of course, would be just how early the US would actually be capable of launching D-Day in this TL. Any ideas? Also, what exactly is the US going to make its war aims in such a scenario? The complete liberation of Europe from both Nazism and Communism? Including the USSR itself?

 

[ATP]

What if the US from March 1, 1940 is ISOT'd forward in time to March 1, 2022, and the reverse?

Some thoughts:

1. 1940 US to the 2022 world: Ukraine loses an extremely massive supply of Western aid due to losing the present-day US. Can Europe realistically make up for this shortfall in aid to Ukraine? Or is Europe going to be compelled to seek a deal with Putin in regards to Ukraine, especially considering that the US would no longer be in NATO in such a scenario and would not have much of a desire or capability to protect Europe--and not to mention having two times less people than it has in real life?

2. 2022 US to the 1940 world: Could this be enough to prevent the Fall of France a couple of months later? If not, though, then France should still fight on since the US would have such overwhelmingly massive power projection that it's not going to be funny. The crucial question, of course, would be just how early the US would actually be capable of launching D-Day in this TL. Any ideas? Also, what exactly is the US going to make its war aims in such a scenario? The complete liberation of Europe from both Nazism and Communism? Including the USSR itself?

1.Putin win,genocide Ukraine,Poland is next.And rest of Europe,too,including germans.
2.Biden could rule world,but.....he is too stupid for that.But,his deep state owners could save France and crush both soviets and germans - if they wished so.
Problem is,they would made it lgbt paradise next.

So,you created 2 dystopian scenarios.
You want something useful? send Reagan USA to 1940,then,at last,rhis TL would be saved.1985 Europe would be fucked,but - they wanted commies,right? so,they would get them.

 

[strunkenwhite]

What if the US from March 1, 1940 is ISOT'd forward in time to March 1, 2022, and the reverse?

Some thoughts:

1. 1940 US to the 2022 world: Ukraine loses an extremely massive supply of Western aid due to losing the present-day US. Can Europe realistically make up for this shortfall in aid to Ukraine? Or is Europe going to be compelled to seek a deal with Putin in regards to Ukraine, especially considering that the US would no longer be in NATO in such a scenario and would not have much of a desire or capability to protect Europe--and not to mention having two times less people than it has in real life?

2. 2022 US to the 1940 world: Could this be enough to prevent the Fall of France a couple of months later? If not, though, then France should still fight on since the US would have such overwhelmingly massive power projection that it's not going to be funny. The crucial question, of course, would be just how early the US would actually be capable of launching D-Day in this TL. Any ideas? Also, what exactly is the US going to make its war aims in such a scenario? The complete liberation of Europe from both Nazism and Communism? Including the USSR itself?

For 2022 US, they have basically unlimited ability to intimidate. (Step 1: We have nukes. Step 1b. Explain, and probably demonstrate, what nukes are. Step 2: Tell other countries what actions will provoke bullying. Step 3: Bully anyone who refuses to stop such actions.) The problem will be in how to intimidate without making too many enemies. We won't have the technological edge forever and we want our allies to be in by choice, not by force. NATO instead of Warsaw Pact, you know?

The economy will take a big hit adjusting to the utter lack of trading partners with a modern tech/industrial base. But there's no other country better able to weather such an event; we occupy the better part of our continent and have pretty well-rounded native resources. Many of the strategic materials we source from elsewhere can be had domestically, albeit at greater cost.

For 2022 world, Canada and Mexico will have a very interesting time of it. As for the rest of NATO, it's conceivable that Russia is already in such a dire state that it's too late for even this to make a critical difference; but let's say that's not the case. NATO will have to decide, basically, to shit or get off the pot. Direct support for Ukraine, or not. I think they would go with direct support assuming they still retain the locally placed nuclear arsenal (for deterrence against a Russian (threat of) first strike). It may seem odd to act more aggressively, not less, with a weaker position, but here I think losing the US means that losing Ukraine on top of that is the worse outcome if it can be avoided, which it can.

China will flex its muscles, of course, but will be more concerned about its own backyard. Sorry, Taiwan. SK and Japan will have a hard enough time looking out for themselves.

Speaking of China's backyard, the 1940 US territory of the Philippines is in for a rough time, but not as rough as getting invaded by Japan, I guess, as long as they don't get invaded by China. I wonder if the Filipinos will change their minds, seeing as how being under the US umbrella is about the only hope they have of not being completely at everyone's mercy? If they value independence above all else, though, maybe being China's bitch will not be so bad as long as China lets them have local control, which I imagine they would.

 

[stevep]

For 2022 US, they have basically unlimited ability to intimidate. (Step 1: We have nukes. Step 1b. Explain, and probably demonstrate, what nukes are. Step 2: Tell other countries what actions will provoke bullying. Step 3: Bully anyone who refuses to stop such actions.) The problem will be in how to intimidate without making too many enemies. We won't have the technological edge forever and we want our allies to be in by choice, not by force. NATO instead of Warsaw Pact, you know?

The economy will take a big hit adjusting to the utter lack of trading partners with a modern tech/industrial base. But there's no other country better able to weather such an event; we occupy the better part of our continent and have pretty well-rounded native resources. Many of the strategic materials we source from elsewhere can be had domestically, albeit at greater cost.

For 2022 world, Canada and Mexico will have a very interesting time of it. As for the rest of NATO, it's conceivable that Russia is already in such a dire state that it's too late for even this to make a critical difference; but let's say that's not the case. NATO will have to decide, basically, to shit or get off the pot. Direct support for Ukraine, or not. I think they would go with direct support assuming they still retain the locally placed nuclear arsenal (for deterrence against a Russian (threat of) first strike). It may seem odd to act more aggressively, not less, with a weaker position, but here I think losing the US means that losing Ukraine on top of that is the worse outcome if it can be avoided, which it can.

China will flex its muscles, of course, but will be more concerned about its own backyard. Sorry, Taiwan. SK and Japan will have a hard enough time looking out for themselves.

Speaking of China's backyard, the 1940 US territory of the Philippines is in for a rough time, but not as rough as getting invaded by Japan, I guess, as long as they don't get invaded by China. I wonder if the Filipinos will change their minds, seeing as how being under the US umbrella is about the only hope they have of not being completely at everyone's mercy? If they value independence above all else, though, maybe being China's bitch will not be so bad as long as China lets them have local control, which I imagine they would.

Interesting analysis.

With the 1940 US the big problems would be Russia and China, although both would have problems without trade with the US and also the impact on world trade. I suspect Putin would think himself very well off but as you say it could force rump NATO to take a firmer stance. In which case would Macron blink in the face of nuclear threats as I can't see a coward like Johnson actually standing firm on anything.

The other problem for the 2022 world with such a date is that its suddenly lost a major supplier of energy and food at a time when Putin's war is already causing crisis. Going to be a very rough few years even if no one does something really stupid with nukes.

Other point is that would the ISOT affect US people, forces and equipment outside the US? If not then a fair number of forces from 2022 would still be available, albeit that their durability would be limited even with allied attempts to help them stay operational as long as possible. That could help in the short term at least while the world seeks to adjust, along with of course the displaced US.

For the 1940 world with the 2022 US then Nazi Germany gets stomped and probably Japan as well. Mussolini might be ignored or might not. Not sure what a Biden government would do about the USSR apart from seeking to minimise its power but their also likely to seek to keep the communists out of power in China. A much better world for Europe at least with WWII greatly shortened and for a good bit of E Asia if not China. Would be tension between a liberal US and the developed 1940 world over human rights, let alone with the rest of the down-time world but how far the US might try and go would be uncertain. Definitely going to be pressure for an earlier end of colonization which could further improve the economic position of the western powers affected.