Looking at the BotW map, I've identified roughly 6 major Hylian cities. I've used this as a rough calculator for Hyrule's population:
- Skyloft (Great Plateau) -- 75,000
- Hyrule Castle Town -- 60,000
- Proxim (Outpost/East Outpost Ruins) -- 45,000
- Necluda Town (Ash Swamp) -- 33,750
- Lanayru Town (Lanayru Promenade) -- 25,312
- Akkala City (Akkala Citadel) -- 18,984
- Windvane Town (Coliseum) -- 14, 238
- Maritta Town (Salari Plains) -- 10,678
Hylian Towns: 72 (180,000)
Hylian Villages: 960 (144,000)
Total Hylian Population: ~576,962
Estimated Professional Military Strength: ~5,769
Estimated Mustering Strength: 19,232
Other Races
- Gerudo
- Gerudo Town (Capital) -- 6,000
- Gerudo Towns (9) -- 13,500
- Gerudo Villages (120) -- 12,000
- Total Gerudo Population: 31,500
- Estimated Professional Military Strength: 315
- Estimated Mustering Strength: 1,050
- Goron City
- Goron City (Capital) -- 9,000
- Goron Towns (9) -- 18,000
- Goron Villages (120) -- 24,000
- Total Goron Population: 51,000
- Estimated Professional Military Strength: 510
- Estimated Mustering Strength: 1,700
- Zora's Domain
- Zora's Domain (Capital) -- 10,000
- Hyrule Lake -- 8,000
- Zora Towns (18) -- 54,000
- Zora Villages (240) -- 72,000
- Total Zora Population: 144,000
- Estimated Professional Military Strength: 1,440
- Estimated Mustering Strength: 4,800
- Rito Village
- Rito Village (Capital) -- 5,000
- Rito Villages (12) -- 3,600
- Total Rito Population -- 8,600
- Estimated Professional Military Strength: 86
- Estimated Mustering Strength: 286
Total Hylian+Allies: ~812,062
Total Estimated Professional Military Strength: ~13,890
Total Estimated Mustering Strength: 27,202
Going on some of the estimates I've seen for Sauron's army, it seems half of his army was comprised of auxileries drawn from vassal states. That would put his mustering strength at probably around 72,000, with a total population of about 2,160,000. His "professional" military core is probably around 21,600. That puts him at pretty good odds. His (again), "professional" core of orc and troll troops seems to be just somewhat smaller than the full mustering strength of Hyrule and he would certainly have the advantage in a war of attrition.
That said, there may be a (slight) technological advantage for the Hylians. Around the time of OoT, Hylian soldiers in Castletown were known to wear mail with plated areas. This is somewhat more sophisticated than the mail that Gondor and Rohan use (they don't actually use plate armor, as is shown in the movies). Sauron would also have a bit more difficulty in pushing into Hyrule than Gondor, owing to Hyrule's more mountainous terrain, as well as various lakes and rivers.
There is probably something to be said of the local monster population though; Sauron will undoubtedly draw in many moblins, bokoblins, and hinox to his cause. The bokoblins seem to be the largest of the population group, seemingly drawing in moblins and probably exist on a tribal level, but we can probably estimate there are at least a hundred or so tribal villages, probably with a population close to 30,000 bokoblins. Not very large, as its mustering strength would be at best around ~1,000, but maybe given the more war-like nature of the race, we might see something closer to 10,000 that Sauron could draw to his cause. The downside is that they're fairly spread out within Hyrule, so it will be more difficult to draw them in, though perhaps Sauron might use them to weaken Hyrule from within by orchestrating raids.
There is also of course, the possibility that Ganondorf and Sauron will ally for at least a short time, to their mutual advantage. Invading Gerudo Valley would be a nightmare, one in which Sauron's numerical numbers won't serve well at all and probably would not be worth the cost (though bottling Ganondorf up is very possible--and likely Gerudo prosperity is tied to Hylian wealth).
Sauron's Strategy:
- Endgame: To Conquer Hyrule and obtain the Triforce.
- Spread influence to the Bokoblins, Moblins, and Hinox.
- They don't offer much in the way of offensive capability, not any that matter to Mordor, but their geographic location in areas such as the swamps and forests can harass trade and villages, which would draw off Hyrule's precious military strength.
- Forge an alliance with the Gerudo
- The Gerudo are have a small population, occupy poor land, and can easily bottled up in the future. Making concessions to Ganondorf in the promise of future land is an easy win. Even if Ganondorf turns on Sauron, Sauron can overwhelm him in the open and bottle him up if he needs to.
- Sow Disloyalty among the Hylian Nobles
- Likely Hyrule's nobility break down along providential lines. Thus, the nobles in Akkala, Lanayru, Necluda, and Hebra are likely to have been independent at one time and there likely still exists some level of resentment between them and the core Hylians.
- Lanayru should be a key target. It is south of Mordor and well-shielded from any invasion, from either Hyrule or Mordor. Therefore, it is more likely that Sauron can persuade the Lanayru nobles to pursue a more independent policy. The downside to this policy is that the Sheikah are not far away. A fact that the Lanayru nobles are probably keenly aware of. Any open treachery is likely to end with a friendly visit from a Sheikah assassin.
- Necluda is also fairly remote and easily defended. It is also likely more independent as well. For much the same reasons as Lanayru, Sauron should hope to peel off some of the nobility. Of course, there is still the fairly close position of the Sheikah, which may give the local nobles pause in pursuing a more independent policy.
- Hebra should be a target, but it is likely that the region lacks much in the way of peeling off from Hyrule, which occupies more temperate land and probably feeds the region. Most likely, Hebra was probably colonized by Hyrule in the more recent past.
- Akkala may be a possibility, but there are difficulties. First, while it is likely that Akkala's Citadel was originally built with the Hylian King in mind, Akkala itself will be the one on the front line and therefore the first to likely come under the tender control of Sauron should/when he invade. There is also of course...the fact that the Sheikah are also relatively near Akkala City. Still, the region looks to have once been wealthy and may resent the core Hylians.
- Take Akkala City
- If Akkala will not switch sides, then Sauron needs to take it. The city will be difficult, because the Citadel is built into a small mountain. Storming the citadel will probably be difficult and a siege would take a great deal of time. In addition, the rivers and waterfalls from Zora's domain in the south will make supply lines difficult to maintain without harassment. On the plus side, Sauron will have an easier time blocking a relieving force sent to said Akkala City.
- Bottle the Gorons at Trilby Trail's Fork
- The Gorons are tough customers and live on a volcano that is occasionally active. Therefore, it is best for Sauron to try and bottle them up in their region rather than let them join the Hylians on the open field (where their goron roll ability would act as a sort of devastating cavalry) or invade them (in which they live in a region that would cause orcs and men to catch fire on a bad day just by standing in the open air).
- Isolate Zora's Domain
- There seems to be some degree of xenophobia toward Hylians from Zora, so it's possible that Sauron can sow some dissent among the Zora or even split the Zora King from the Hylian King, whom he pays homage to. However, if that is not the case, then Sauron MUST try and isolate Zora's Domain. This is probably an impossible task, but there are too many rivers and lakes connected to Zora's Domain for Sauron to just leave it. He needs to try and bottle the Zora up or at least reduce the attacks.
- Likely this will fail. There are many underground passages in Hyrule and likely there are many underwater rivers and lakes as well.
- The Two Bridges
- Sauron would then need to move to take Thimes and Helmhead Bridge. That would effectively bottle up the Gorons. The Zora are still a problem though, because they can still move through the rivers and can cross through the Crenel region via the Lanayru Wetlands. Also, since the Zora seem to live throughout the greater Hylian River System, all the way to Lake Hylia itself...well, there's no easy way to bottle up the Zora. They live widespread throughout the area. Even if Sauron were to besiege Zora's Domain itself, the Zora from the rest of the region would still raid the region.
- Gerudo Assistance
- At this point, if Sauron has managed to bring Ganondorf on his side, even temporarily, then Ganondorf and his raiders should be hitting the Hylian rear. There isn't much Ganondorf can do. They're too small and too easily bottled up. Ganondorf therefore cannot go to open war with the Hylians, but would need to disguise his raiders as non-state actors. That limits the sort of attacks he can make. Even so, disrupting trade or assassinations are a great way for the Gerudo to weaken the Hylian hand.
- Monsters from Faron?
- In the Twilight Princess era, we know that the Faron Woods are dangerous and likely given the lack of Hylian presence, bokoblins and moblins are more numerous here. If Sauron can unite the tribes, perhaps with a commanding Nazgul, he would be able to move through the hills and take Deya Village, then start raiding the road between Broxim and Necluda. Bridge Hylia is something that they can likely take...but it would be putting their backs to the Zora of lake Hylia and would be stopped by the City of Proxim itself.
- Storm Castletown
- Sauron's best move to take the capital of Hyrule is to simply storm it. A long siege would play into the Hylian hands, as Zora raid caravans and the orcs starve. There's also just no way to easily prevent Hylian relief armies from Proxim and Windvane--or Necluda and Lanayru, should they still be supporting the Hylian King.
- Take the Core
- Should Sauron succeed in overpowering Castletown, he should move against Windvane, Proxim, and Gatepost Town. If he can do that, he will have succeeded in forcing the Hylians back onto Skyloft, leaving Lanayru and Necluda isolated.
- Divide and Conquer
- If Sauron has bottled up the remaining Hylians on Skyloft, he can focus his energies on dealing with Lanayru, Necluda, and Gerudo in turn. Lanayru and Necluda are something he can march against--but Sauron will need to be careful not to overstretch himself. His armies will need to cross the Hylia River and that means more raids by Zora. Ganondorf is either forced to swear fealty or will be bottled up.
- Beat Down Zora's Domain
- If at this point, Sauron hasn't forced Zora's Domain into submission, he should or try to wreck it. Expect genocidal campaigns against Zora villages and towns to either deplete the population or force it into the Domain, where Sauron can strike. Assaulting the city seems impossible, so Sauron may have to use the Witch King, along with raiding parties to try and grind the Zora down.
- Mop Up
- Regardless, the real prize is Hyrule Fields, which is the obvious main agricultural core of the kingdom. It's geography allows Hylians to spread out and dominate others. The goal for Sauron is to extract resources and make himself stronger, while slowly forcing the bottled up regions to accept him as their new ruler.
- Triforce?
- Of Sauron can take Hyrule Castle and find a way to obtain the Triforce, he will be able to conquer Hyrule without much trouble. Unfortunately, that means extracting the spiritual stones, which are in highly isolated geographic locations...including Zora's Domain and Death Mountain. The last is located in a haunted forest full of the dead, which is actually a plus for Sauron and likely, the Deku Tree would be the first of the guardians to fall--possibly the only one, though theft and treachery are possible.
King Hyrule's Strategy
- Endgame: To protect Hyrule and force Sauron back across the Akkala "Sea".
- Fortify Akkala Citadel
- Although not an easy city to take, I don't think the Hylians have the strength to keep Akkala, even if Sauron takes it with devastating losses. Even so, making Sauron pay a heavy price to take Akkala is a good strategy. Even so, preventing the Citadel from falling to harm's way is important. It is the chokepoint that Sauron needs to enter the Hylian core.
- Zora Raiding
- Regardless of whether or not Akkala Citadel stands or falls, the King needs to have Zora raid the Mordor supply chains that will move across the Akkala falls or north along the Akkala Lake. Even so, that still leave Shadow Pass, which completely bypasses any river or water system, but it will punish Sauron for trying to assault the south of the city.
- Bolster the Defense of Death Mountain
- The Gorons are important for both mineral wealth and the military strength the Gorons provide. Focusing on creating a road to Picco Pond via tunneling (if possible) would be a good plan for the Hylians.
- Ensure Loyalty
- Sauron will undoubtedly try and pull loyal vassals away from the King--he must remind them to who they owe fealty to. The Sheikah may have to be involved, as Sauron will find weakpoints somewhere. This includes the Gerudo, but the King can bottle them up if Ganondorf proves treacherous.
- Defend against Monster Attacks
- Just as Sauron will undoubtedly try to use bokoblins and moblins to weaken Hyrule, the King must try to strengthen his defenses and remove troublesome tribes or otherwise blunt these attacks. Otherwise it will take a toll on the economic strength of Hyrule and Sauron will grind him down.
Ganondorf's Strategy
- Endgame: To obtain the Triforce, conquer Hyrule, and push Sauron out of Hyrule
- Forge a Deal with Sauron
- Ganondorf has a weak hand. That's why he needed the Triforce in the first place. His people are small, scattered, and easily bottled up in the mountains and desert. Serving Sauron can also provide Ganondorf with more knowledge in magic. It is also less of a direct threat to his state, as it's located to the west of Hyrule, while Sauron must invade from the east. Finally, even if Sauron were to conquer all, Ganondorf could hold up in the desert.
- Forge Relations with Monsters
- Ganondorf should start to foster friendly relationships with Bokoblins and Moblins ASAP, because chances are they will flock to Sauron, not him. As we saw in Two Towers, Sauron doesn't necessarily command the loyalty of all orcs, even if all pay him some level of homage or worship.
- Find the Spiritual Stones
- Like in the game, Ganondorf should immediately seek out the Spiritual Stones. The Triforce is his trump-card against Sauron. It would allow for the near-immediate conquest of Hyrule and present a great threat to Sauron directly.
- Obtain the Triforce
- Having obtained the spiritual stones, Ganondorf must obtain the triforce and use it to secure his position.
Ganondorf's Likely Result
The flaw in Ganondorf's plan is that he doesn't fully understand the Triforce. Attempting to use the triforce will cause it to split. Ganondorf may become a wizard of near equal power to the Witch King or even Sauron, but he won't have the army to match. Worse, since his conquest seems primarily focused in the of the Hyrule Fields at best, he will likely still face hostility from Skyloft, Necluda, Akkala, and Lanayru--though Ganondorf can handle some of these issues. He was able to freeze Zora's Domain (thereby neutralizing the Zora) and actually managed to capture Goron City (likely with help from Lizalfoes).
Overall though, Ganondorf will probably end up in a more exposed position. He can't command loyalty from the Zora or Goron tribes, therefore there is nothing to really hold Sauron back as he hammers the Hylian Fields. Ganondorf himself would have made it easier for Sauron to push into the area. The Witch King and the Nazgul could assault him on his flying castle and even bridges might be contrived to get Sauron's army over. Regardless, Ganondorf would either have to flee or face defeat, leaving Sauron to try and collect the other two pieces of the Triforce.
King Hyrule's Likely Result
King Hyrule holds a fairly strong hand against Sauron. The problem is that Hyrule is likely to be undermined by internal dissent. There was a civil war within memory--that suggests there are factions that do not like him, apart from the Gerudo. Therefore, he will be forced to use the Sheikah as a secret police to remove opponents, but that only works so much. Internal treachery (the Gerudo) is what actually brings down his kingdom in OoT. Now Hyrule faces a much more powerful and wiser opponent in Sauron and the Witch King.
Likely, it is Ganondorf and Zelda who will ultimately foil King Hyrule. Zelda will see the need to obtain the Triforce to keep it from both Ganondorf and to use it against Sauron. That's the very same plan that caused Ganondorf to obtain the Triforce in the first place. The difference is that even as Ganondorf conquers, so will Sauron.
Sauron's Likely Result
Sauron can likely take Akkala and even isolate Zora's Domain and Death Mountain, but I expect he will have more trouble taking the rest of Hyrule unless he is able to break away supporters from King Hyrule. There is a high chance of that happening. Certainly Ganondorf will probably play into Sauron's hands. Sauron's problem is that he knows less about the Triforce than most others in the setting and he would not trust any of his servants to handle it. He could have the Three Spiritual Stone obtained, perhaps--if he knew of them and where to find them, but he would also need to open the Hylian Cathedral in Hyrule Castle or else assault the Temple of Time in Skyloft or perhaps find the third temple in Faron Forest to the far south. And Sauron would not likely be able to open the key that blocks his path.
Regardless, Sauron will be least likely to obtain the Triforce and he is best positioned if Ganondorf takes it. Should Sauron learn enough of the Triforce to guess that it will break upon Ganondorf's touching it, then he can play the long game. Otherwise he will attempt to take the spiritual stones, if at least because that prevents someone else from using it. Since Sauron is the strongest of all powers, denying the Triforce to others should probably be one of his primary goals.
The very possible result however, of supporting Ganondorf in weakening Hyrule internally and the lack of knowledge of how to obtain the Triforce, will likely lead to Ganondorf obtaining the Triforce as we see in OoT. Sauron can then probably sweep into Hyrule Fields and either force Ganondorf to surrender or flee. Either way, he will not have the Triforce and will have no idea that it has broken into pieces or how to obtain them.
Very possibly, it could end with Link and Zelda retaking needing to fight Ganondorf to the death, in order to regain the Triforce (no sealing away option). Then Zelda will likely use the Triforce to banish Sauron (possibly back to Middle Earth?). So if Sauron isn't able to defeat Ganondorf at Castletown and take the Triforce of Power, he'd probably lose. If Sauron wins, he obtains the Triforce of Power and probably ends up conquering Hyrule entirely, since I can't imagine that Link could defeat a Sauron with the ToP and Sauron would eventually learn all he needed to of the Triforce from either Ganondorf or one of his subordinates or through his own research.
