Appendix Two: The Third Reich in 1949
In hindsight, Hitler's decision not to declare war on the United States after Pearl Harbour – a decision opposed by many of his military and diplomatic personnel – saved the Reich from a humiliating and disastrous defeat. The American counterattack which sank a Japanese carrier convinced Hitler that he was underestimating the Americans – and his racist view of the world led him to underestimate the Japanese – and gave him political cover for not honouring his commitments to Japan. As America mobilised, the wisdom of that decision became all the more apparent. In fact, as the Americans were not at war with Germany, it was extremely hard for FDR to justify sending lend-lease to the USSR (a problem made harder by the discovery of murdered Polish officers, killed by the NKVD on Stalin's orders. A sizable amount of supplies were sent, but as they had to be moved in British hulls – and were very exposed to German air and sea attacks – this was not as effective as FDR might have hoped.
The consequences rapidly manifested themselves. The Germans pushed through Stalingrad in late 1942, as shortages of everything from fuel oil to rubber crippled the Red Army, and – after securing Baku – drove on Moscow in 1943. Stalin, convinced he had been abandoned by Churchill and Roosevelt, made a separate peace after Moscow fell. The USSR surrendered all territory taken by the Germans during the war – the armistice line was set just past Moscow – and exited the war. Worse, from the point of view of Britain and America, Hitler's realisation that America was not a paper tiger spurred a massive program of economic consolidation and research and development, the latter aided and abetted by captured Russian scientists and bureaucrats. With Britain increasingly exhausted by the war, and FDR unable to guarantee re-election in 1944, Churchill was removed from office and Britain sought terms with the Reich. They appeared remarkably mild, but – as Churchill kept pointing out until he was packed off to India to serve as Viceroy – they ensured Germany would be in position to resume the war, either against Britain or Russia, whenever the Reich saw fit.
It is now 1949.
The Third Reich stretches from the western coastline of France to the Moscow line in Russia. It has annexed Alsace–Lorraine, and is seriously considering doing the same to Occupied France and the Benelux countries. Poland and Western Russia no longer exist, to all intents and purposes, and the remaining 'independent' nations in Europe are all too aware that their independence will only last as long as Hitler wills it so. Vichy France has sunk into outright collaboration, while Italy, Finland, and the Balkan allies are being brought closer and closer into the Reich's orbit. Switzerland, Sweden, Turkey, Spain and Portugal have more freedom, of a sort, but they are careful not to press the Reich too hard. Hitler is not known for tolerating anyone trying to stand up to him, a fact of which his 'allies' are all too aware.
Indeed, none of the allies have a hope of standing up to the Reich. Vichy has allowed its mobile and aerial forces to rot away, save for units 'pacifying' Algeria for later French settlement. (Resistance cells continue to exist in Occupied France, with support from the British SOE, but far too many are collapsing into banditry.) Italy has almost no respect from the Germans – ironically, the Italians have managed to learn from their early disasters and bring their army into the modern era – while the Spanish and Turkeys are seen as doughty fighters, yet unable to defend their territory if the Reich invades. There is no other force on the continent capable of challenging the Reich. The British remain dominant at sea – backed up by the United States – but are unable to take the war into Germany, while the Russians are simply unable to rebuild their armies after the disasters of 1941-43. The Reich appears supreme, and is currently building up forces to invade Britain or push the border further east into Russia. No one expects the uneasy peace to last long.
This appearance of strength masks considerable weaknesses. The Germans launched a crash program to rationalise their economy after they discovered the United States was far ahead of them, when it came to generating and supporting military force, and the repercussions continue to haunt the Reich. Speer was granted vast power by Hitler, but he found himself facing opposition from both the military and the SS, which had laid claim to vast parts of Germany's industrial sector. Hitler's inability to set priorities – and sometimes change his mind, seemingly at random – didn't help. The Germans are uneasily aware they are dangerously reliant on slave labour, with many labourers doing what they can to sabotage their work.
The aftermath of the war has led to demands for demobilisation, which has led to further problems for the Reich. Speer chose to experiment with female labourers, for example, despite strong opposition from the regime, and those labourers do not intend to let themselves be shoved out of jobs they worked hard to obtain. This clashes sharply with the regime's intention of putting women firmly in their place – as mothers, daughters and wives – and has led, ironically, to the only real opposition to the regime being female. The Nazis are reluctant to crack down hard on women, but that is likely to change. They have already started targeting particularly daring women, sending them east (where they become wives for settlers, willing or no) or dispatching them to the camps. They have also encouraged returning husbands to keep their wives in check, granting them near-complete authority over their womenfolk.
The Reich is also heading for a prolonged period of political chaos. The formal organisational chart is meaningless, with the major figures in the regime wielding power behind the scenes and making it difficult to tell who'll jump which way when Hitler finally dies. Speer attempted to rationalise the political system too, perhaps even to allow for a degree of democracy, but he was firmly blocked by the military and SS factions.
Put simply, with Hitler on death's door power has effectively devolved to a triumvirate of Himmler (SS), Göring (military) and Speer (industry). The factions are, in turn, composed of smaller factions, which do not always agree with each other. (The Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine are competing for the same resources, but neither wants the SS to have supreme power over the military and/or government.) The SS want to reshape Germany in line with Hitler and Himmler's mad dreams, while the industrialists want to rationalise the country and the military are more intent on building up a powerful force than concentrating on how the country can support it. It is not clear who will win the coming power struggle for the future of the regime.
For ordinary Germans, life is always precarious. The influx of 'guest workers' – slaves, in all but name – has been liberating, yet is also a drag on the economy. The state works hard to ensure that good Germans receive workers – for example, mothers of more than two children can apply for a slave girl as an assistant – but this also limits economic opportunities for younger Germans, unless they're members of the party. Rationing is still a thing – although rations have been increasing over the last two years, as more and more farmland is brought online – and it is difficult to live unless you have good connections. Indeed, the black market has proven practically impossible to eradicate (not least because many black marketers have close ties to the regime).
The regime does try to extend its reach into the lives of each and every citizen. A young boy will be welcomed into the Hitler Youth from the moment he goes to school and a young girl inducted into the BDM (while membership is technically voluntary, failing to join will lead to investigation and possible blacklisting, even arrest); the former transferring to the army when he turns eighteen and the latter being pushed to marry a good German, set up a home and bear his children. A handful of women – mainly well-connected party aristocracy – become BDM matrons, charged with supervising the younger girls – but there are few other opportunities for a woman to live a life on her own. The children are fed a steady diet of propaganda, including encouragement to betray their parents if they'd doing something illegal. Far too many do.
There is no such thing as free speech in Nazi Germany. The party vets newspapers and broadcasters carefully, making sure they toe the party line. Some papers are considered obscene even by the regime's standards - Der Stürmer has been banned and unbanned repeatedly – while others are banned for daring to practice actual journalism or publishing pornography (which the regime considers a French vice). A handful of underground newspapers do exist, but most rarely spread far before they're discovered. The Reich is very good at hunting the presses down and stopping them.
The greatest danger for the average German is being denounced for having Untermensch blood. No one speaks openly of what happened to the Jews, and millions of other undesirables, but everyone knows what'll happen if they are found to have Jewish blood or the (mythical) homosexual gene. There is a roaring trade in fake papers, ensuring that anyone with enough money can purchase a pedigree that would make Hitler and Himmler green with envy, despite the SS's best efforts. It is also quite easy, if you know the right person, to get travel passes that will let you go from one end of the Reich to the other, although – again – the SS is trying to crack down.
And with Hitler's death all but inevitable, it is impossible to tell how the Reich will develop in the future ...
