The Byzantines win at Yarmouk in 636
- Thread starter WolfBear
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Circle of Willis
Well-known member
The Rashidun Caliphate had been thrashing the Sassanids for a while before this (and their next major victories at al-Qadisiyyah & Jalula aren't far away), and Persia overall was in an even worse spot than the Byzantines by the 630s (having not only ultimately lost the 602-628 war with the ERE, but also stumbled into a civil war right between that & the Islamic invasion). So I doubt Yarmouk will completely stop Islam's expansion - just its westward movement. Maybe they'll push deeper into India and modern Xinjiang to compensate instead.
That said, the effects of the Byzantines retaining control over the Levant, Egypt and the Maghreb would be...well, as massive as those territories. If the Muslims don't just roll over those areas a few decades later, at the very least you might see Monothelite doctrine prevail, since Heraclius intended it as a compromise to reconcile the Egyptian & Syrian Christians to Greco-Latin orthodoxy and firm up his control over those regions. (It was historically abandoned after the loss of Egypt & the Levant made it superfluous, and Byzantine weakness post-Islamic conquests made it increasingly difficult for the emperors to crack down on dyothelite sentiment in the West) Also Africa would be much more Christian overall, and get that way sooner, with the Muslims still locked out of the continent.
That said, the effects of the Byzantines retaining control over the Levant, Egypt and the Maghreb would be...well, as massive as those territories. If the Muslims don't just roll over those areas a few decades later, at the very least you might see Monothelite doctrine prevail, since Heraclius intended it as a compromise to reconcile the Egyptian & Syrian Christians to Greco-Latin orthodoxy and firm up his control over those regions. (It was historically abandoned after the loss of Egypt & the Levant made it superfluous, and Byzantine weakness post-Islamic conquests made it increasingly difficult for the emperors to crack down on dyothelite sentiment in the West) Also Africa would be much more Christian overall, and get that way sooner, with the Muslims still locked out of the continent.
Chiron
Well-known member
Palestine and Southern Syria had already fallen at this point, and depending on how Yarmouk was won, Heraclius may not be able to exploit it. If he completely overran and destroyed Khalid's Army with minimal losses, then he can try and re-take Damascus again and hopefully learned his lesson to not split his forces this time.
But if he was battered to shit and Khalid made a tactical retreat, he bought a little time, but Khalid will regroup with Shurhabil and Amr and they will finish him off.
As it is, the Byzantine Army and State is in too wrecked of a state to survive the attacks of the Rashidun Armies. They have to either win several Canae like battles or trade space for time and wait for the internal schisms to undo the Rashidun Caliphate and buy them a few decades to get their house in order.
But if he was battered to shit and Khalid made a tactical retreat, he bought a little time, but Khalid will regroup with Shurhabil and Amr and they will finish him off.
As it is, the Byzantine Army and State is in too wrecked of a state to survive the attacks of the Rashidun Armies. They have to either win several Canae like battles or trade space for time and wait for the internal schisms to undo the Rashidun Caliphate and buy them a few decades to get their house in order.
Interesting analysis. And you believe that the Rashiduns could have conquered Constantinople in around 660 if it wasn't for the First Fitna breaking out shortly beforehand, correct?
Interesting thoughts. Having Islam expand more into China would certainly be interesting, though I wonder if both China and India have way too many people to be easily converted to Islam. In real life, Islam's main strength in South Asia was on the Indian periphery, for instance. Sindh, western Punjab, Kashmir, and eastern Bengal.
Chiron
Well-known member
Yes. The first Fitna caused several decades of revenge killings and internal strife resulting in the Abbasid Revolt. If not for it, Ali would have marched north in 657 and seized Anatolia and begun the process of penning the Byzantines inside Constantinople using the Ottoman Strategy several centuries earlier and before they can get all the wood and supplies in to make its fleet of Greek Fire Throwing ships. And with the Dardanelles and Bosporus secured, Constantinople is doomed.
Where did they get all of this wood from? The Anatolian forests?
Chiron
Well-known member
Some what, but the bulk got imported due to deforestation by centuries of warfare. Not unusual in ancient times and often a cause of later disasters.
Kinda hard to do long term conservation policies like the Tokugawas did when your nation is fighting for its life.
Interesting.
Also, somewhat off-topic, but what happens if the Byzantines lose at Akroinon 104 years later? :