raharris1973
Well-known member
Our scenario begins with the Second Samoan Civil War of 1898-1899. Second Samoan Civil War - Wikipedia. This emerged when the Samoan King Malietoa Laupepa died, and his son Malietoa Tunamafili was recognized as King by an American judge on the island and the British, but a rival, Mata'afa Iosefo returned from exile and won support for his rival claim on the basis that Tunamfili was too young, and gained significant popular backing and backing from the Germans.
In OTL, the Mata'afa forces won some initial battles against Tunamafili forces, even when those were augmented by US and British Marines and ships, but he was contained, and by the end of the year, Samoa was partitioned.
In the ATL, the difference is some German ships from German New Guinea or Tsingtao and some Marines are in the region and steam toward Samoa in support of Mata'afa shortly after his own version of coronation.
With German ships & marines present, even while they're not offensively engaged, they become a tempting target after US and British Marines face some unexpected and embarrassing setbacks at the hands of the Mata'afa forces in March and April 1899. Things escalate, with US and British ships attacking the Germans, and the Germans defending and counter-attacking. Eventually each side takes some losses and it becomes impossible to contain. The British declare war on the Germans by May, and the Americans follow suit.
The Germans are in a defensive/reactive mode, with their deployed forces trying die bravely defending themselves and their colonies and attempting some daring raids, and their naval forces at home vainly trying to sortie, with those getting any distance to the channel or North Sea getting squashed.
The British objectives are to destroy the globally deployed and any other exposed portions of the German fleet, and rout the Germans in the colonial sphere from the South Pacific to West Africa. The Americans aim to participate in driving the Germans from the Pacific, in particular at Samoa, and points north of the equator, between Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines.
In the ensuing months, more Anglo-American ships come to grips in the Pacific, with the overmatched Germans inexorably losing more than they can replace to attrition, and losing more atolls and islands, and British, Australian, New Zealand, and American Marines overrunning those spots.
In Africa, in somewhat lengthier campaigns, British and Indian troops, augmented by troops from the Cape Colony and Rhodesia, are employed against Germany's African colonies while the US is absent.
Both the Anglo-American and German side find new allies joining them in the coming weeks and months.
By late summer of 1899, Japan, still bearing a grudge over Germany's role in the Triple Intervention of 1895, declares war on a clearly losing Germany and invades the Marianas islands north of Guam, while putting Tsingtao to siege.
No later than October 1899, feeling under siege by the British and demanding an end to it, the Boer Republics attack Britain, significantly complicating Britain's situation.
Some Frenchmen think about how to exploit the situation to possibly fight the Germans or otherwise gain back Alsace-Lorraine. At the same time, they are sympathetic to the Boers in the South African context, and the Anglo-Americans do seem quite high-handed.
Any French exploratory diplomatic soundings to Russia about going to war with Germany, or even threatening to go to war with Germany, to secure territorial concessions in Europe, are mercilessly shot down by appalled Russians who mostly look at the ongoing wars as examples of desperate German and Boer resistance against British high-handedness and bullying. Besides, at this moment, Russia has an agreement with Austria to maintain the Balkan status quo, and so has no desires to make territorial changes in Europe while it concentrates on Asia.
Any even more exploratory French diplomatic soundings to Britain and the US about France joining their coalition against Germany find a mildly positive reception to the idea of France joining the naval and colonial and economic war. However, Britain and the USA show practically zero interest in French ideas about raising British and American armies to base in France to join the French army for an assault on the German homeland. Both the British and Americans signal that such campaigns would be completely superfluous to their national requirements and interests.
Left with the prospect of basically attacking and bleeding all on their own against the German Army in Europe, and going through some of the most dramatic phases of the Dreyfuss Affair at the moment, even revanchist Frenchmen conclude circumstances are not presently good for attacking Germany.
The colonial war drags on through 1900 and into 1901. The Germans lose everything in the Pacific (New Guinea and the smaller islands) by very early 1900. African campaigns are what stretch out through 1900, and in some cases, 1901. British forces occupy Tanganyika and Namibia, and forces from the Gold Coast take Togo while forces from Nigeria take Kamerun. The Boer War, especially with its guerrilla phases, stretches on until 1902 or 1903.
The settlement with Germany basically recognizes the new reality. There are no indemnities paid or taken, but basically in territorial terms, Germany accepts the loss of its overseas empire in return for the end of blockade. In the Pacific, Japan gets Tsingtao and the Marianas, the USA, gets the Marshalls, Carolines, and Palau, and eastern Samoa, and Britain and the Dominions get Western Samoa, New Guinea, and the Bismarck Archipelago. The Cape Colony gets Namibia, and Britain gets the rest of the German African colonies. PoWs are returned. This is basically a one-way flow back to Germany. Everybody keeps any weapons/ships captured, pretty much a one-way flow against Germany. All properties, assets and patents of Americans and British in Germany and of Germans in America and Britain have been nationalized and won't be given back.
The British settlement with the Boers comes later, but it comes, and along similar lines to OTL.
Germany can come out of this two ways, angry and determined for a naval/colonial rematch, or determined that it is a land animal/land power that can't compete in that arena and shouldn't try. I think it will go for the latter, because even though there will be much anger at the Anglo-Americans, and examples of hyped up brave resistance, the battles or at least campaigns overseas will all be defeats. Plus, due to German inferiority, for most of the war, the majority of the fleet ships home based in the North Sea will be afraid to come out to face the British directly to either end the blockade or come to the rescue of beleaguered fleet detachments getting hammered around the world, which will be a bad look.
In turn, the easy victory, and the crushing of the German naval and colonial challenges won't leave much of a lasting bitterness against Germany in the UK and US.
It can 'clear the air' and make later wars between them and Germany quite unlikely. It could make 'splendid isolation' once more look like a sustainable approach for Britain.
If Skallagrim is correct, British indifference could even withstand a later German war against Russia and/or France.
In OTL, the Mata'afa forces won some initial battles against Tunamafili forces, even when those were augmented by US and British Marines and ships, but he was contained, and by the end of the year, Samoa was partitioned.
In the ATL, the difference is some German ships from German New Guinea or Tsingtao and some Marines are in the region and steam toward Samoa in support of Mata'afa shortly after his own version of coronation.
With German ships & marines present, even while they're not offensively engaged, they become a tempting target after US and British Marines face some unexpected and embarrassing setbacks at the hands of the Mata'afa forces in March and April 1899. Things escalate, with US and British ships attacking the Germans, and the Germans defending and counter-attacking. Eventually each side takes some losses and it becomes impossible to contain. The British declare war on the Germans by May, and the Americans follow suit.
The Germans are in a defensive/reactive mode, with their deployed forces trying die bravely defending themselves and their colonies and attempting some daring raids, and their naval forces at home vainly trying to sortie, with those getting any distance to the channel or North Sea getting squashed.
The British objectives are to destroy the globally deployed and any other exposed portions of the German fleet, and rout the Germans in the colonial sphere from the South Pacific to West Africa. The Americans aim to participate in driving the Germans from the Pacific, in particular at Samoa, and points north of the equator, between Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines.
In the ensuing months, more Anglo-American ships come to grips in the Pacific, with the overmatched Germans inexorably losing more than they can replace to attrition, and losing more atolls and islands, and British, Australian, New Zealand, and American Marines overrunning those spots.
In Africa, in somewhat lengthier campaigns, British and Indian troops, augmented by troops from the Cape Colony and Rhodesia, are employed against Germany's African colonies while the US is absent.
Both the Anglo-American and German side find new allies joining them in the coming weeks and months.
By late summer of 1899, Japan, still bearing a grudge over Germany's role in the Triple Intervention of 1895, declares war on a clearly losing Germany and invades the Marianas islands north of Guam, while putting Tsingtao to siege.
No later than October 1899, feeling under siege by the British and demanding an end to it, the Boer Republics attack Britain, significantly complicating Britain's situation.
Some Frenchmen think about how to exploit the situation to possibly fight the Germans or otherwise gain back Alsace-Lorraine. At the same time, they are sympathetic to the Boers in the South African context, and the Anglo-Americans do seem quite high-handed.
Any French exploratory diplomatic soundings to Russia about going to war with Germany, or even threatening to go to war with Germany, to secure territorial concessions in Europe, are mercilessly shot down by appalled Russians who mostly look at the ongoing wars as examples of desperate German and Boer resistance against British high-handedness and bullying. Besides, at this moment, Russia has an agreement with Austria to maintain the Balkan status quo, and so has no desires to make territorial changes in Europe while it concentrates on Asia.
Any even more exploratory French diplomatic soundings to Britain and the US about France joining their coalition against Germany find a mildly positive reception to the idea of France joining the naval and colonial and economic war. However, Britain and the USA show practically zero interest in French ideas about raising British and American armies to base in France to join the French army for an assault on the German homeland. Both the British and Americans signal that such campaigns would be completely superfluous to their national requirements and interests.
Left with the prospect of basically attacking and bleeding all on their own against the German Army in Europe, and going through some of the most dramatic phases of the Dreyfuss Affair at the moment, even revanchist Frenchmen conclude circumstances are not presently good for attacking Germany.
The colonial war drags on through 1900 and into 1901. The Germans lose everything in the Pacific (New Guinea and the smaller islands) by very early 1900. African campaigns are what stretch out through 1900, and in some cases, 1901. British forces occupy Tanganyika and Namibia, and forces from the Gold Coast take Togo while forces from Nigeria take Kamerun. The Boer War, especially with its guerrilla phases, stretches on until 1902 or 1903.
The settlement with Germany basically recognizes the new reality. There are no indemnities paid or taken, but basically in territorial terms, Germany accepts the loss of its overseas empire in return for the end of blockade. In the Pacific, Japan gets Tsingtao and the Marianas, the USA, gets the Marshalls, Carolines, and Palau, and eastern Samoa, and Britain and the Dominions get Western Samoa, New Guinea, and the Bismarck Archipelago. The Cape Colony gets Namibia, and Britain gets the rest of the German African colonies. PoWs are returned. This is basically a one-way flow back to Germany. Everybody keeps any weapons/ships captured, pretty much a one-way flow against Germany. All properties, assets and patents of Americans and British in Germany and of Germans in America and Britain have been nationalized and won't be given back.
The British settlement with the Boers comes later, but it comes, and along similar lines to OTL.
Germany can come out of this two ways, angry and determined for a naval/colonial rematch, or determined that it is a land animal/land power that can't compete in that arena and shouldn't try. I think it will go for the latter, because even though there will be much anger at the Anglo-Americans, and examples of hyped up brave resistance, the battles or at least campaigns overseas will all be defeats. Plus, due to German inferiority, for most of the war, the majority of the fleet ships home based in the North Sea will be afraid to come out to face the British directly to either end the blockade or come to the rescue of beleaguered fleet detachments getting hammered around the world, which will be a bad look.
In turn, the easy victory, and the crushing of the German naval and colonial challenges won't leave much of a lasting bitterness against Germany in the UK and US.
It can 'clear the air' and make later wars between them and Germany quite unlikely. It could make 'splendid isolation' once more look like a sustainable approach for Britain.
If Skallagrim is correct, British indifference could even withstand a later German war against Russia and/or France.
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