What if September 2022 Ukraine is ISOT'd back to September 2012? What happens afterwards? Also, you yourself can decide whether or not Crimea, the Donbass, and the other Russian-controlled and Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine also get ISOT'd ten years back in time. Or you can answer this question with both scenarios.
September 2022 Ukraine is ISOT'd back to September 2012
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
Well if the occupied areas are brought back then the fighting will continue and 2012 Russia suddenly finds itself with an unexpected war on its hands. Not sure how much support Ukraine would get from the 2012 world although details from inside Ukraine including the level of destruction is likely to prompt some response.
If their not brought back their still technically Ukrainian, although under the 2012 government and I would see them being reunited pretty quickly with the 2022 Ukraine. Russia won't like this but will Putin risk war against a tooled up Ukraine which would be in a position to defend those territories unlike their weakness in 2014.
Either way news from the future will impact the 2012 world and I wonder what they will think of things like the election of Trump in 2016 and his attempts to cling to power after losing in 2020, Britain voting to leave the EU, the worsening climatic crisis, the Covid pandemic, increasing instability in China etc.
If their not brought back their still technically Ukrainian, although under the 2012 government and I would see them being reunited pretty quickly with the 2022 Ukraine. Russia won't like this but will Putin risk war against a tooled up Ukraine which would be in a position to defend those territories unlike their weakness in 2014.
Either way news from the future will impact the 2012 world and I wonder what they will think of things like the election of Trump in 2016 and his attempts to cling to power after losing in 2020, Britain voting to leave the EU, the worsening climatic crisis, the Covid pandemic, increasing instability in China etc.
Sounds reasonable, frankly. The one thing that might really piss Putin off, of course, would be the 2014 Maidan Revolution, but by 2022, Ukraine would have already been way too strong for any punitive Russian military expedition to really effectively work. Still, getting used to the fact that Ukraine is permanently lost for him and Russia is likely to be very difficult for Putin.
As for the 2012 West, supporting Ukraine to 2022 levels will come as a shock to them, no doubt, but if Russia will refuse to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, then the West will probably morally have no choice but to militarily support Ukraine to the max bar direct Western military intervention.
COVID-19 is likely to be quite a shock once it spreads from Ukraine to the rest of the world in 2012 in this TL.
Does Ukraine itself already have many vaccine doses for it? Enough to share with the rest of the world?Sounds reasonable, frankly. The one thing that might really piss Putin off, of course, would be the 2014 Maidan Revolution, but by 2022, Ukraine would have already been way too strong for any punitive Russian military expedition to really effectively work. Still, getting used to the fact that Ukraine is permanently lost for him and Russia is likely to be very difficult for Putin.
As for the 2012 West, supporting Ukraine to 2022 levels will come as a shock to them, no doubt, but if Russia will refuse to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, then the West will probably morally have no choice but to militarily support Ukraine to the max bar direct Western military intervention.
COVID-19 is likely to be quite a shock once it spreads from Ukraine to the rest of the world in 2012 in this TL.
I don't think the 2012 west would need to give the same level of support as its unlikely to see a shooting war but news of 'future events' is likely to raise a few eyebrows that will prompt reactions all round the world. Just about everybody will seek to avoid those events they find unpleasant to themselves and their interests so your going to see a lot of scrambling to change things. For instance Europe will seek to detach themselves from Russia oil and gas earlier although how the various states and possibly the EU as a whole seek to do that. Similarly what would the reaction of 2012 Sweden and Finland be to hearing that in a decade's time Putin's actions have prompted their successor to drop neutrality for membership of NATO?
Another point that occurs is the growing tension with China and also its internal problems would cause a lot of people to argue for alternative actions. You might see Xi failing to gain an extension of his powers and even being replaced although again what policies either a remaining Xi or any successor would follow would depend on events.
Similarly how does the west and especially the US react to the news of the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of western forces?
There's going to be a hell of a lot of flux in what's sometimes termed the thinking classes and assorted power groups in every nation and region.
In terms of covid I suspect that Ukraine has relatively limited vaccines given they have other things on their minds currently. However even assuming it still occurs they should have enough samples and background knowledge to make the world better prepared if it - or something like it - still emerges.