Russia invades the Baltic countries in either 2003 or 2004 in order to stop them from joining NATO

[WolfBear]

What would have been the effects had Russia invaded the Baltic countries in either 2003 or 2004 in order to stop them from joining NATO, both on the Baltic countries themselves, on Russia, and on other countries in the neighborhood such as Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, et cetera?

Some things that I notice is that Russia and China were both poorer in 2004 relative to 2014 or 2021, perhaps even considerably poorer. So, Russia is going to be much less prepared for any extremely massive Western sanctions that will be imposed on it in response to this in 2004, even if it will have China supporting it. I don't think that the West would actually be willing to go to war with Russia over the Baltic countries in 2004, but what do you think?

And what would the rest of Russia's neighborhood think about Russia after such a Russian invasion in 2003 or 2004? Would they become less willing to pursue their own integration projects with Russia after seeing what Russia did in the Baltic countries, for instance?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Utter curbstomp by NATO in this case. Keep in mind that the Russian Army in 2003 has not even been taught the harsh lessons of having modern equipment like the aftermath of the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Moreover, you might also expect a swift admission of Ukraine and Moldova into NATO, and a possible but more intense effort at destabilizing and overthrowing of Lukashenko’s government. Of course, if we’re also talking territorial losses, Kaliningrad would be given to Poland.

I would think that this could end Putin’s career early, although the humiliation might be strong enough that the Russians might elect someone a bit worse than Putin.

 

[WolfBear]

Utter curbstomp by NATO in this case. Keep in mind that the Russian Army in 2003 has not even been taught the harsh lessons of having modern equipment like the aftermath of the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Moreover, you might also expect a swift admission of Ukraine and Moldova into NATO, and a possible but more intense effort at destabilizing and overthrowing of Lukashenko’s government. Of course, if we’re also talking territorial losses, Kaliningrad would be given to Poland.

I would think that this could end Putin’s career early, although the humiliation might be strong enough that the Russians might elect someone a bit worse than Putin.

Russia will use nuclear weapons if the West will ever attempt to conquer Kaliningrad, no? So, if the West will militarily attempt to respond to this, Russia could escalate this war to a nuclear level. Of course, it's also possible that some KGBists in the Russian government (the Russian Deep State, if you will) will decide to overthrow Putin in this scenario before things will actually get that far.