Resolved: If China went more maritime imperial/colonial, its primary direction would have been south/southwest, and anti-Portuguese, not east/north

raharris1973

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I have a projection, - that if China went more maritime colonial....which is not altogether terribly likely, but not impossible, the primary exploratory expansionist, and trade direction it would be drawn to would be south/southwest, and not really east or north or really even southeast much at all.

I base this off of what private Chinese traders did and where they were present, which were more the nearby countries and south China seas and countries on the Indian Ocean, and where the Zheng He voyages actually went, as opposed to where Gavin Menzies conjectured they could have gone.

If China, I am thinking more likely under the Song Dynasty (could not rule out the Tang though), or the Yuan, or the Ming, maybe the early Qing, but less likely them, had more of a maritime expansionist spirit, and mind to maintain naval spending to protect private merchant trade official tribute and trade missions with force, they would simply have far more motive to protect commerce and tribute with "semi-cooked" barbarians with spices, architecture, gems, gold, and spiritual traditions in the near China Seas of their immediate periphery, down in the Spice islands, Malacca, Indochina and Siam, India, the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, than to go off into the vast and completely unknown oceans and lands of no people or "uncooked" barbarians in Oceania/Polynesia, Australia, the Americas, or even Kamchatka.

Depending on the timing, more vigorous or vengeful Ming dynasts, or ones more confident they had Mongol problems under control, might have kept up firm opposition to Portuguese interloping and piratical practices in Chinese waters, but gone on to progressively chase the Portuguese "Ferengi" back out of Southeast Asian waters, Indian waters, and the Indian Ocean while strengthening oceanic trade routes with the Muslim states of the Middle East (and Indian subcontinent) and states of the Horn of Africa, possibly, setting up trading and patrolling posts trading for African ivory and exotic animals as far down as Mozambique and Madagascar that wipe out Portuguese and possibly other Europeans who try to penetrate further east.

The Chinese and Muslims may end up over time tolerating trading towns and forts to do exchange with Portuguese and other westerners....but only at this safe distance, at Madagascar or Mozambique....or at a Portuguese colony at the Cape itself.

Later in the 1500s, thanks to the Magellan/Elcano explorations, and later follow-up Spanish explorations, other white foreign devils would penetrate the Filipino side of the China Seas from across the Pacific via the Americas. Despite earlier anti-Portuguese stances, the Chinese are much likelier to tolerate Spaniards in the Philippines and not campaign to force them out, because they will at least be bringing in high volumes of silver coin and gold coin to pay for Chinese products, far beyond what the Portuguese were carrying.

The Portuguese, or other Europeans, might eventually crack past any Chinese blockage of direct approaches to the Indian Ocean by learning the Brouwer route, and setting up victualing stations far to the south in Australia in the late 1500s or 1600s, or the Chinese naval patrolling may slackening during a mid 1600s dynastic change period.

If blocked in getting direct access and control over intra-Asian trade for most of the 1500s, the Portuguese would likely be much less wealthy, but might still have some colonial successes by investing in the Brazilian sugar economy sooner, setting up a Cape Colony as a trading post and victualing station, and still selling slaves en masse to the Spanish empire, especially the mining sector, in addition to its own sugar plantation sector.
 
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Interesting,could they keep brits out of their turf? becouse they need keep with technology for doing that.Not impossible,to the end of 18th century China had relatively modern artillery.
So,they could copy warships,too.

Maybe they would discover Australia here ?

And,how they would react to Japan invasion of Korea? could they invade Japan here?
 
If the Ming didn't burn their treasure fleet, they'd probably be more open in their seaborne exploration. Otherwise, you might also see some significant influx of Chinese migrants that would end up in SE Asia even more than OTL.

On the other hand, there's also the scenario of a Mongol Yuan invasion of Majapahit hitting a snag with a good old typhoon, and somehow they end up in western Luzon due to the extensive damage that their fleet would suffer because of the storm. The planned invasion is postponed as the stranded Yuan soldiers are now curious about the new island that they ended up. Eventually, they take control of all of Luzon and they integrate that into the Yuan Empire. When the Ming eventually come to power, you now have a Northern Yuan in the Mongol heartland, and a Southern Yuan in Luzon.
 
If the Ming didn't burn their treasure fleet, they'd probably be more open in their seaborne exploration. Otherwise, you might also see some significant influx of Chinese migrants that would end up in SE Asia even more than OTL.

On the other hand, there's also the scenario of a Mongol Yuan invasion of Majapahit hitting a snag with a good old typhoon, and somehow they end up in western Luzon due to the extensive damage that their fleet would suffer because of the storm. The planned invasion is postponed as the stranded Yuan soldiers are now curious about the new island that they ended up. Eventually, they take control of all of Luzon and they integrate that into the Yuan Empire. When the Ming eventually come to power, you now have a Northern Yuan in the Mongol heartland, and a Southern Yuan in Luzon.
This could be an interesting outcome, whether or not Southern Yuan based in Luzon ever ends up reunified with China under either the Ming, a Neo-Yuan Mongol dynasty ruling over the whole of China, or under the Manchu Qing.

Would you see a Mongol Yuan regime, set up in Luzon, and outlasting the mainland regime even if the Ming oust the Yuan in China proper, having strong imperial prospects over the entirety of the Philippines, and perhaps beyond, to much more of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, other places unmentioned?
 
Or alternatively, an Oirat dominated Mongol Empire. This hypothetical Southern Yuan would be more mercantile and a naval power, but nowhere as close as the Ming. The Austronesian tribes of Luzon would be quasi-Sinicized, though it might depend on who leads the expedition. The Southern Yuan could also become the bastion of Nestorianism in Asia if Kublai Khan continues the Sinicization path. The entity would have to be named after one of the Mongol leaders handpicked for the original invasion of Java.
 
Or alternatively, an Oirat dominated Mongol Empire. This hypothetical Southern Yuan would be more mercantile and a naval power, but nowhere as close as the Ming. The Austronesian tribes of Luzon would be quasi-Sinicized, though it might depend on who leads the expedition. The Southern Yuan could also become the bastion of Nestorianism in Asia if Kublai Khan continues the Sinicization path. The entity would have to be named after one of the Mongol leaders handpicked for the original invasion of Java.
Are we sure that Nestorian Christians were particularly influential among the people assigned as commanders for this Yuan maritime invasion directed toward Majapahit?

I've heard this idea of a Mongol-created Nestorian Christian Philippines before, but obviously nothing like it happened. What are the genuine historic hints this was only a few or a reasonably achievable number of steps from reality?
 
Are we sure that Nestorian Christians were particularly influential among the people assigned as commanders for this Yuan maritime invasion directed toward Majapahit?

I've heard this idea of a Mongol-created Nestorian Christian Philippines before, but obviously nothing like it happened. What are the genuine historic hints this was only a few or a reasonably achievable number of steps from reality?
None, because the Nestorians eventually faded into obscurity.
 
This could be an interesting outcome, whether or not Southern Yuan based in Luzon ever ends up reunified with China under either the Ming, a Neo-Yuan Mongol dynasty ruling over the whole of China, or under the Manchu Qing.

Would you see a Mongol Yuan regime, set up in Luzon, and outlasting the mainland regime even if the Ming oust the Yuan in China proper, having strong imperial prospects over the entirety of the Philippines, and perhaps beyond, to much more of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, other places unmentioned?
Luzon as center of mongol sea empire? seems fun.They could discover Australia here,but - would they be strong enough to sirvive Ming restoration?
I bet,that Ming here would be sending fleets there till mongols are crushed,becouse they could not afford other China to remain.
For the same reason,Quing would take later there.

But,thanks to that,they could keep modern fleet long enough to be able to face brits navy and do not fall in 19th century.

None, because the Nestorians eventually faded into obscurity.
To the point,that when jesuits in 17th century discovered stones with their writings they thought that it was made by orthodox or catholics,not nestorians.Becouse everybody forget about them till then.
 
Although the Nestorians still technically exist, albeit as the Church of the East. They don't have any power in Asia anymore though.

If this hypothetical Southern Yuan Kingdom was more maritime based, then they would focus heavily on warships. Another possibility would be that this Southern Yuan Kingdom would also try to take Taiwan as well.

This hypothetical Southern Yuan would also become a center for Han Chinese Yuan loyalists as well, giving the Southern Yuan a Sino-Mongolian flavor to what is essentially an island full of Austronesians. Alternatively, instead of the Manchu Qing arising, you'd have the Northern Yuan being conquered by the Four Oirat Confederation, which included the Dzungars. Anyone might not know this, but the Dzungar Khanate was one of the toughest enemies that the Qing faced. They were so tough that when the Qing finally conquered their homeland, the Dzungars were subjected to genocide.
 
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Although the Nestorians still technically exist, albeit as the Church of the East. They don't have any power in Asia anymore though.

If this hypothetical Southern Yuan Kingdom was more maritime based, then they would focus heavily on warships. Another possibility would be that this Southern Yuan Kingdom would also try to take Taiwan as well.

This hypothetical Southern Yuan would also become a center for Han Chinese Yuan loyalists as well, giving the Southern Yuan a Sino-Mongolian flavor to what is essentially an island full of Austronesians. Alternatively, instead of the Manchu Qing arising, you'd have the Northern Yuan being conquered by the Four Oirat Confederation, which included the Dzungars. Anyone might not know this, but the Dzungar Khanate was one of the toughest enemies that the Qing faced. They were so tough that when the Qing finally conquered their homeland, the Dzungars were subjected to genocide.
Add Australia.They would found it,even if there was no Tang outposts.
And Dzungur remnants run to Russia,where their descendents live to our days as Dzungurs.When all manchu people are good chineese now....
History made strange and cruel jokes.
 
Add Australia.They would found it,even if there was no Tang outposts.
And Dzungur remnants run to Russia,where their descendents live to our days as Dzungurs.When all manchu people are good chineese now....
History made strange and cruel jokes.
Dzungars are essentially one part of the larger Oirat ethnic group. They have a home in Russia called Kalmykia.
 
Interesting,could they keep brits out of their turf?
That is a longer term question. The rise of English colonialism, and the unification of Britain (merger with Scotland) is not inevitable.
becouse they need keep with technology for doing that.
*If* the trends in English industrialization, global trade, and naval power all point the same basic direction as real life, yes, the Chinese would need to keep up with technology for doing that. There's no guarantee that a China that goes navy and trade crazy under one of its own dynasties before 1492 would keep up with the technology over time, so somebody, maybe English, or French, or Dutch, could overtake them eventually on tech. If the Ming Chinese were *stimulated* in the 1500s to go navy and trade crazy to *drive away* the Portuguese at least it shows Chinese "sensitivity" to competition and gives them "practice" competing, so there would be precedent, but no guarantees, they could meet other European or non-European challengers besides the Portuguese, like the English/British, and keep them out also.

Not impossible,to the end of 18th century China had relatively modern artillery.
So,they could copy warships,too.
Right, not impossible. They would need to shift priorities and some ideals however, and their idea of how much taxation and military spending is OK. [they will have to accept that taxing, spending, and borrowing more is OK, and so is letting more people pass to get government jobs to oversee all this. Fortunately, hiring them as officials and paying them a respectable salary - the spending part, means fewer of them join rebellions or corruptly cheat the people or govt].

Maybe they would discover Australia here ?
But they would not have any special reason to really explore it or colonize it, since there are not good trading partners. Some merchants might do small time sandalwood gathering or trading for sea cucumbers. No bigger effort would start unless maybe to counter a foreign effort the dynasty starts to deem a security threat, or if we get to the 19th century and they get an overpopulation issue or decide they want an exile location.

And,how they would react to Japan invasion of Korea? could they invade Japan here?
On the one hand, if the Ming Chinese have gotten more "practice" at long distance overseas military expeditions between 1520 and 1590 against the Portuguese (or started even earlier) in the Chinese seas and Indian Ocean, the option of a retaliatory invasion of Japan certainly becomes more conceivable. On the other hand, there is the historical record of the Mongols' two-time bad luck invading Japan, once at sea, another time when they actually got to land. So it could go either way.
 
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That is a longer term question. The rise of English colonialism, and the unification of Britain (merger with Scotland) is not inevitable.
Indeed.
*If* the trends in English industrialization, global trade, and naval power all point the same basic direction as real life, yes, the Chinese would need to keep up with technology for doing that. There's no guarantee that a China that goes navy and trade crazy under one of its own dynasties before 1492 would keep up with the technology over time, so somebody, maybe English, or French, or Dutch, could overtake them eventually on tech. If the Ming Chinese were *stimulated* in the 1500s to go navy and trade crazy to *drive away* the Portuguese at least it shows Chinese "sensitivity" to competition and gives them "practice" competing, so there would be precedent, but no guarantees, they could meet other European or non-European challengers besides the Portuguese, like the English/British, and keep them out also.
Agree.
Right, not impossible. They would need to shift priorities and some ideals however, and their idea of how much taxation and military spending is OK. [they will have to accept that taxing, spending, and borrowing more is OK, and so is letting more people pass to get government jobs to oversee all this. Fortunately, hiring them as officials and paying them a respectable salary - the spending part, means fewer of them join rebellions or corruptly cheat the people or govt].
all could be done,and help China
But they would not have any special reason to really explore it or colonize it, since there are not good trading partners. Some merchants might do small time sandalwood gathering or trading for sea cucumbers. No bigger effort would start unless maybe to counter a foreign effort the dynasty starts to deem a security threat, or if we get to the 19th century and they get an overpopulation issue or decide they want an exile location.
Sea cucumber,or sometching like that.It is kind of worm living in sea near Australia,which chineese like to eat.
On the one hand, if the Ming Chinese have gotten more "practice" at long distance overseas military expeditions between 1520 and 1590 against the Portuguese (or started even earlier) in the Chinese seas and Indian Ocean, the option of a retaliatory invasion of Japan certainly becomes more conceivable. On the other hand, there is the historical record of the Mongols' two-time bad luck invading Japan, once at sea, another time when they actually got to land. So it could go either way.
They would have no other choice after their vassal was attacked.And if they have european technology,they would win on sea.
What later on land - dunno,samurais were hard nuck to crack.
But,as a result,Japan would not shut itself from world,becouse either China conqer it,or Shoguns keep conatacts to have modern weapons.
 

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