raharris1973
Well-known member
I have a projection, - that if China went more maritime colonial....which is not altogether terribly likely, but not impossible, the primary exploratory expansionist, and trade direction it would be drawn to would be south/southwest, and not really east or north or really even southeast much at all.
I base this off of what private Chinese traders did and where they were present, which were more the nearby countries and south China seas and countries on the Indian Ocean, and where the Zheng He voyages actually went, as opposed to where Gavin Menzies conjectured they could have gone.
If China, I am thinking more likely under the Song Dynasty (could not rule out the Tang though), or the Yuan, or the Ming, maybe the early Qing, but less likely them, had more of a maritime expansionist spirit, and mind to maintain naval spending to protect private merchant trade official tribute and trade missions with force, they would simply have far more motive to protect commerce and tribute with "semi-cooked" barbarians with spices, architecture, gems, gold, and spiritual traditions in the near China Seas of their immediate periphery, down in the Spice islands, Malacca, Indochina and Siam, India, the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, than to go off into the vast and completely unknown oceans and lands of no people or "uncooked" barbarians in Oceania/Polynesia, Australia, the Americas, or even Kamchatka.
Depending on the timing, more vigorous or vengeful Ming dynasts, or ones more confident they had Mongol problems under control, might have kept up firm opposition to Portuguese interloping and piratical practices in Chinese waters, but gone on to progressively chase the Portuguese "Ferengi" back out of Southeast Asian waters, Indian waters, and the Indian Ocean while strengthening oceanic trade routes with the Muslim states of the Middle East (and Indian subcontinent) and states of the Horn of Africa, possibly, setting up trading and patrolling posts trading for African ivory and exotic animals as far down as Mozambique and Madagascar that wipe out Portuguese and possibly other Europeans who try to penetrate further east.
The Chinese and Muslims may end up over time tolerating trading towns and forts to do exchange with Portuguese and other westerners....but only at this safe distance, at Madagascar or Mozambique....or at a Portuguese colony at the Cape itself.
Later in the 1500s, thanks to the Magellan/Elcano explorations, and later follow-up Spanish explorations, other white foreign devils would penetrate the Filipino side of the China Seas from across the Pacific via the Americas. Despite earlier anti-Portuguese stances, the Chinese are much likelier to tolerate Spaniards in the Philippines and not campaign to force them out, because they will at least be bringing in high volumes of silver coin and gold coin to pay for Chinese products, far beyond what the Portuguese were carrying.
The Portuguese, or other Europeans, might eventually crack past any Chinese blockage of direct approaches to the Indian Ocean by learning the Brouwer route, and setting up victualing stations far to the south in Australia in the late 1500s or 1600s, or the Chinese naval patrolling may slackening during a mid 1600s dynastic change period.
If blocked in getting direct access and control over intra-Asian trade for most of the 1500s, the Portuguese would likely be much less wealthy, but might still have some colonial successes by investing in the Brazilian sugar economy sooner, setting up a Cape Colony as a trading post and victualing station, and still selling slaves en masse to the Spanish empire, especially the mining sector, in addition to its own sugar plantation sector.
I base this off of what private Chinese traders did and where they were present, which were more the nearby countries and south China seas and countries on the Indian Ocean, and where the Zheng He voyages actually went, as opposed to where Gavin Menzies conjectured they could have gone.
If China, I am thinking more likely under the Song Dynasty (could not rule out the Tang though), or the Yuan, or the Ming, maybe the early Qing, but less likely them, had more of a maritime expansionist spirit, and mind to maintain naval spending to protect private merchant trade official tribute and trade missions with force, they would simply have far more motive to protect commerce and tribute with "semi-cooked" barbarians with spices, architecture, gems, gold, and spiritual traditions in the near China Seas of their immediate periphery, down in the Spice islands, Malacca, Indochina and Siam, India, the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, than to go off into the vast and completely unknown oceans and lands of no people or "uncooked" barbarians in Oceania/Polynesia, Australia, the Americas, or even Kamchatka.
Depending on the timing, more vigorous or vengeful Ming dynasts, or ones more confident they had Mongol problems under control, might have kept up firm opposition to Portuguese interloping and piratical practices in Chinese waters, but gone on to progressively chase the Portuguese "Ferengi" back out of Southeast Asian waters, Indian waters, and the Indian Ocean while strengthening oceanic trade routes with the Muslim states of the Middle East (and Indian subcontinent) and states of the Horn of Africa, possibly, setting up trading and patrolling posts trading for African ivory and exotic animals as far down as Mozambique and Madagascar that wipe out Portuguese and possibly other Europeans who try to penetrate further east.
The Chinese and Muslims may end up over time tolerating trading towns and forts to do exchange with Portuguese and other westerners....but only at this safe distance, at Madagascar or Mozambique....or at a Portuguese colony at the Cape itself.
Later in the 1500s, thanks to the Magellan/Elcano explorations, and later follow-up Spanish explorations, other white foreign devils would penetrate the Filipino side of the China Seas from across the Pacific via the Americas. Despite earlier anti-Portuguese stances, the Chinese are much likelier to tolerate Spaniards in the Philippines and not campaign to force them out, because they will at least be bringing in high volumes of silver coin and gold coin to pay for Chinese products, far beyond what the Portuguese were carrying.
The Portuguese, or other Europeans, might eventually crack past any Chinese blockage of direct approaches to the Indian Ocean by learning the Brouwer route, and setting up victualing stations far to the south in Australia in the late 1500s or 1600s, or the Chinese naval patrolling may slackening during a mid 1600s dynastic change period.
If blocked in getting direct access and control over intra-Asian trade for most of the 1500s, the Portuguese would likely be much less wealthy, but might still have some colonial successes by investing in the Brazilian sugar economy sooner, setting up a Cape Colony as a trading post and victualing station, and still selling slaves en masse to the Spanish empire, especially the mining sector, in addition to its own sugar plantation sector.
Last edited:
