Obama says ISIS is Iran's problem and does nothing 2014

[Chiron]

As the tin says. Obama instead of sending in the F-18s to save the Yezidis or stopping the imminent ISIS takeover of Erbil. He does evac the consulate in Erbil, and JDAMs it before ISIS can take it and orders the other missions to evacuate immediately.

Going on TV, he says, let Iran and ISIS fight, we out. Mike drop.

The US doesn't do anything further, it doesn't interfere with Iranian Operations or share intelligence. CIA so totally isn't throwing gasoline on the fire and most certainly Mossad isn't supplying the jerry cans. Turks do as they normally did at that time.

How do you see this playing out?

 

[Simonbob]

Messy for the locals, but that's normal. Much, much cleaner for the West.

When you bring yourself to the attention of radicals as major enemies, it's near impossible to stop them.

 

[WolfBear]

In such a scenario, there's a chance that ISIS might be able to capture Baghdad and then force the remaining people in Baghdad (many would have likely fled beforehand) to either convert to Sunni Muslim or else be massacred en masse. That would very likely result in a lot of negative publicity for Obama for refusing to act beforehand. I would presume that this would also create a feeling of existential threat among the Shiites of southern Iraq, though I don't know if they would actually be capable of defeating ISIS without US and Western airstrikes. Maybe Iran might actually be compelled to send its own ground troops into Iraq in order to protect its fellow Shi'a brothers from ISIS, in which case Iranian domination in Iraq after the end of the war might be even larger, assuming that Iran doesn't actually subsequently do anything stupid to piss off the Iraqis.

 

[Chiron]

In such a scenario, there's a chance that ISIS might be able to capture Baghdad and then force the remaining people in Baghdad (many would have likely fled beforehand) to either convert to Sunni Muslim or else be massacred en masse. That would very likely result in a lot of negative publicity for Obama for refusing to act beforehand. I would presume that this would also create a feeling of existential threat among the Shiites of southern Iraq, though I don't know if they would actually be capable of defeating ISIS without US and Western airstrikes. Maybe Iran might actually be compelled to send its own ground troops into Iraq in order to protect its fellow Shi'a brothers from ISIS, in which case Iranian domination in Iraq after the end of the war might be even larger, assuming that Iran doesn't actually subsequently do anything stupid to piss off the Iraqis.

Given the start of the Scenario, they would first be cleaning up Erbil and Dohuk first, PUK which held Sulaimaniyah would hold out. But KDP was always more bark than bite, good at suckering Westerners out of their money, less good on actually doing anything useful with it.

After which, they will then focus on securing Raqqah in Syria followed by Kobane. Once done there, they will want to finish off Al-Hasakah Governorate to secure their rear so they can finish off Deir Ezzor and Al-Anbar. With a firm hold on the Euphrates they will then attempt to move to encircle Baghdad. That would precipitate a mass exodus. But they are more likely to concentrate resources in seizing Aleppo Province and causing the FSA and Foreign Fighter Groups to collapse and either surrender or be absorbed into their forces. With no US bombings they will simply go from strength to strength till either Iran or Turkey decides to finally send in their Armies rather than work through proxies and special operators. Pimp Daddy Putin has bigger eyes on Ukraine and his assistance will be minimal at best.

 

[WolfBear]

Given the start of the Scenario, they would first be cleaning up Erbil and Dohuk first, PUK which held Sulaimaniyah would hold out. But KDP was always more bark than bite, good at suckering Westerners out of their money, less good on actually doing anything useful with it.

After which, they will then focus on securing Raqqah in Syria followed by Kobane. Once done there, they will want to finish off Al-Hasakah Governorate to secure their rear so they can finish off Deir Ezzor and Al-Anbar. With a firm hold on the Euphrates they will then attempt to move to encircle Baghdad. That would precipitate a mass exodus. But they are more likely to concentrate resources in seizing Aleppo Province and causing the FSA and Foreign Fighter Groups to collapse and either surrender or be absorbed into their forces. With no US bombings they will simply go from strength to strength till either Iran or Turkey decides to finally send in their Armies rather than work through proxies and special operators. Pimp Daddy Putin has bigger eyes on Ukraine and his assistance will be minimal at best.

Whom will Turkey install in power in Iraq and Syria in this scenario?