January 2022 Israel is ISOT'd back in time to January 1933

[WolfBear]

What if January 2022 Israel is ISOT'd back in time to January 1933? Do they seek to assassinate Adolf Hitler by any means necessary? Are they able to successfully transport six million Jews out of Europe and into Palestine over the next six or so years? Do they aggressively push for an Anglo-Franco-Soviet coalition to fight Nazi Germany? Are they themselves willing to be a part of this coalition? How do 1933 Americans feel about the fact that their country will be dragged out of isolationism in eight years' time by "those dreaded Japanese"? Or is that going to be prevented in this TL? Is there also any chance that Hindenburg can reverse Hitler's appointment as Chancellor and fire him, or alternatively not nominate him as German Chancellor in the first place? What if it's February 2022 and February 1933? Then does Hindenburg simply fire Hitler shortly after hiring him, explaining that he has serious second thoughts about hiring Hitler after the 2022 state of Israel appears? If so, then it would be quite convenient for Hitler to blame Hindenburg firing him on those dreaded Jews and to denounce Hindenburg as a Jewish puppet lol! Any chance that we could see cooperation between Hindenburg's government and the Mossad in permanently taking out Hitler afterwards? And will this cause Germany to descend into a civil war as the Nazis lose the power that they have just gained after years of efforts?

 

[stevep]

What if January 2022 Israel is ISOT'd back in time to January 1933? Do they seek to assassinate Adolf Hitler by any means necessary? Are they able to successfully transport six million Jews out of Europe and into Palestine over the next six or so years? Do they aggressively push for an Anglo-Franco-Soviet coalition to fight Nazi Germany? Are they themselves willing to be a part of this coalition? How do 1933 Americans feel about the fact that their country will be dragged out of isolationism in eight years' time by "those dreaded Japanese"? Or is that going to be prevented in this TL? Is there also any chance that Hindenburg can reverse Hitler's appointment as Chancellor and fire him, or alternatively not nominate him as German Chancellor in the first place? What if it's February 2022 and February 1933? Then does Hindenburg simply fire Hitler shortly after hiring him, explaining that he has serious second thoughts about hiring Hitler after the 2022 state of Israel appears? If so, then it would be quite convenient for Hitler to blame Hindenburg firing him on those dreaded Jews and to denounce Hindenburg as a Jewish puppet lol! Any chance that we could see cooperation between Hindenburg's government and the Mossad in permanently taking out Hitler afterwards? And will this cause Germany to descend into a civil war as the Nazis lose the power that they have just gained after years of efforts?

Initial consternation in London and the Arab areas neighbouring Israel. [Is it just Israel in its internationally accepted borders or does it include the West Bank, west Jerusalem and Gaza? In the latter case more territory is affected and several million deeply hostile and alienated Arabs are brought along which could affect a lot of things].

How does Britain, with the mandate for Palestine and key interests in the Suez canal so close react to the loss of some of its people and facilities and the appearance of a new nation here, both initially and when it realises the latter's power? Do they end up as rivals or wary neutrals or find some way to work together for mutual benefit? Remembering that for Britain and just about everybody else its the depths of the depression so every government has pressing local problems on their mind. Also there would be the issues of historical levels of antisemitism even in the more liberal powers and how much hubris Israeli leadership might suffer from in those circumstances.

Hitler will die. Have no doubt about that but how many down-time toes will Israel tread on to achieve that and to also remove the Nazis from power and how much will that possibly alienate people in Germany and elsewhere? A forced removal of the Nazis before their done anything too nasty and with many being unwilling to accept the stories from the newcomers regardless of the evidence and there's likely to be continued problems down the line.

How much can Israel support its technology level? Does it make its own computer chips for instance and if so how far behind the most modern 2022 levels might they be? Can they maintain all their military and civilian equipment with the 2022 US gone and what do they do for fuel? They will still be way ahead of the rest of the world but their likely to suffer some drop off in capacity.

Israel can probably get some deal that will see them obtain most of Poland's Jews. After all most Poles would probably be glad to get rid of them and Israel can probably offer some juicy rewards for doing so. However finding room for all of them, especially in the internationally accepted borders would be difficult let alone finding work for them and bringing them up to 2022 standards in terms of technology, social values and the like.

As you say details of the 'future' is going to change a hell of a lot but in what ways depends on the circumstances. Just about everybody's ideas of the future will be upended and assorted groups will seek to achieve their preferred version of that future or prevent it. What would be Israel's aims in such chaos?

 

[Atarlost]

How much can Israel support its technology level? Does it make its own computer chips for instance and if so how far behind the most modern 2022 levels might they be? Can they maintain all their military and civilian equipment with the 2022 US gone and what do they do for fuel? They will still be way ahead of the rest of the world but their likely to suffer some drop off in capacity.

Intel Fab 28 and Fab 18 are there. They're not up to the Taiwanese cutting edge, but 28 does down to 10 nm and 18 down to 45 nm. Tower Semiconductors has a couple fabs in Israel as well focused on specialty chips but they don't go nearly as small as Intel. I suspect they're as fine as anyone could be for sustaining information age infrastructure. Their problem is oil, but they can probably get it. They have really nice carrots and an atomic stick.

I suspect they wind up in an alternate Axis with Mussolini because the UK does something stupid in response to their clearly hostile act of existing near the Suez Canal.

 

[stevep]

Intel Fab 28 and Fab 18 are there. They're not up to the Taiwanese cutting edge, but 28 does down to 10 nm and 18 down to 45 nm. Tower Semiconductors has a couple fabs in Israel as well focused on specialty chips but they don't go nearly as small as Intel. I suspect they're as fine as anyone could be for sustaining information age infrastructure. Their problem is oil, but they can probably get it. They have really nice carrots and an atomic stick.

I suspect they wind up in an alternate Axis with Mussolini because the UK does something stupid in response to their clearly hostile act of existing near the Suez Canal.

The last bit may be a problem because of Mussolini's links with Hitler but could easily see both the British colonial forces and local Arab groups being less than happy about the sudden appearance of this new nation before they realise how powerful it actually is.

 

[Atarlost]

In January 1933 Hitler has been in office at most a day. If Mussolini has any links with him they're tenuous and easily cut when he becomes a liability. And he becomes a liability when Israel starts deliberately leaking history.

 

[stevep]

In January 1933 Hitler has been in office at most a day. If Mussolini has any links with him they're tenuous and easily cut when he becomes a liability. And he becomes a liability when Israel starts deliberately leaking history.

To the down timers but not to the Israelis. Which could make any 'axis' with Mussolini awkward, even without news of what Mussolini 'did' later is going to make him a liability to his opponents in Italy.

I think you could see some agreement with other powers including a post-Mussolini Italy but think he if not his party would have to go 1st.

 

[Atarlost]

To the down timers but not to the Israelis. Which could make any 'axis' with Mussolini awkward, even without news of what Mussolini 'did' later is going to make him a liability to his opponents in Italy.

I think you could see some agreement with other powers including a post-Mussolini Italy but think he if not his party would have to go 1st.

Foreign Jews interned and some race laws, but the Holocaust didn't arrive in Italy until after the surrender when the Germans occupied much of the country. It sounds like the Germans were able to successfully exert pressure in some instances in Italian occupation zones, but not generally.
Source: US Holocaust Memorial Museum

Compared to the Arab states Israel has been willing to cooperate with, the Italian Fascists at their worst aren't that bad and they don't get even as bad as they do until they're trying to placate Hitler. In 1933 Jews aren't even barred from Fascist Party membership. The notion isn't even on the party's radar.

What Mussolini did is very little. He wanted to be like the other great powers, found a segment of Africa none of them had claimed, and tried to colonize it. And the raging hypocrites who proved the legitimacy of bullying African nations by their failure to liberate their own colonies tried to ruin him with sanctions leaving other pariah nations as his only possible allies and the USSR wasn't an option because he wasn't a communist.

But from a certain point of view he saved the Italian Jews south of the front when Italy surrendered and if the Allies had landed in France first instead of pretending the Alps were the soft underbelly of Europe he would have saved Italy's Jews without that geographic qualifier. And Israel's holocaust museums have the documentation to say that too. Rehabilitating Mussolini is maybe six months' work. Less than that if there are any social media sites with servers in Israel. And I don't think Israel can be fussy about its allies any more than Mussolini could because I think either the Brits or French are going to pick a fight that escalates out of control because they can comprehend neither the weapons arrayed against them nor how a nation as narrow and oft threatened as Israel would feel about having battleships off its coast.

 

[stevep]

Foreign Jews interned and some race laws, but the Holocaust didn't arrive in Italy until after the surrender when the Germans occupied much of the country. It sounds like the Germans were able to successfully exert pressure in some instances in Italian occupation zones, but not generally.
Source: US Holocaust Memorial Museum

Compared to the Arab states Israel has been willing to cooperate with, the Italian Fascists at their worst aren't that bad and they don't get even as bad as they do until they're trying to placate Hitler. In 1933 Jews aren't even barred from Fascist Party membership. The notion isn't even on the party's radar.

What Mussolini did is very little. He wanted to be like the other great powers, found a segment of Africa none of them had claimed, and tried to colonize it. And the raging hypocrites who proved the legitimacy of bullying African nations by their failure to liberate their own colonies tried to ruin him with sanctions leaving other pariah nations as his only possible allies and the USSR wasn't an option because he wasn't a communist.

But from a certain point of view he saved the Italian Jews south of the front when Italy surrendered and if the Allies had landed in France first instead of pretending the Alps were the soft underbelly of Europe he would have saved Italy's Jews without that geographic qualifier. And Israel's holocaust museums have the documentation to say that too. Rehabilitating Mussolini is maybe six months' work. Less than that if there are any social media sites with servers in Israel. And I don't think Israel can be fussy about its allies any more than Mussolini could because I think either the Brits or French are going to pick a fight that escalates out of control because they can comprehend neither the weapons arrayed against them nor how a nation as narrow and oft threatened as Israel would feel about having battleships off its coast.

I would agree there's likely to be a clash with Britain given its suddenly lost a territory adjacent to a vital part of its infrastructure. However once the government realises - probably the hard way admittedly - how powerful Israel actually is and that its not a massive threat unless Britain makes it so their likely to sort things out. After all in the depth of the depression even the short sighted government of the time isn't interested in a war.

Mussolini was an oaf and a potential bully who totally over-estimated the power Italy actually had. He was able to conquer Ethiopia and then latter Albania but failed at every other attempt at aggression and screwed over Italy and a lot of other people in the process. Just because he was an idiot didn't make him any less a murderous dictator.

 

[Atarlost]

Mussolini was an oaf and a potential bully who totally over-estimated the power Italy actually had. He was able to conquer Ethiopia and then latter Albania but failed at every other attempt at aggression and screwed over Italy and a lot of other people in the process. Just because he was an idiot didn't make him any less a murderous dictator.

No, murdering fewer people makes him less a murderous dictator. Mussolini behaved in a fashion that was completely acceptable in diplomatic circles as recently as 1914 or 1915. Ask the Irish or the Boers about the 'good guys.' He's more of a dictator than sundry British PMs, but he's not more murderous.

And Italy is a necessary part of an anti-British coalition. They bring the navy. The French don't know what they're doing and are too tightly tied to the UK after WWI. The British are the enemy. Nobody else can get ships into the Med without British permission. Modern ships are eggshells with sledgehammers. When no one else has sledgehammers it's better to not be eggshells, but Israel can't make armor plate. No one can in 2022. But Italy of 1933 can.

 

[stevep]

No, murdering fewer people makes him less a murderous dictator. Mussolini behaved in a fashion that was completely acceptable in diplomatic circles as recently as 1914 or 1915. Ask the Irish or the Boers about the 'good guys.' He's more of a dictator than sundry British PMs, but he's not more murderous.

And Italy is a necessary part of an anti-British coalition. They bring the navy. The French don't know what they're doing and are too tightly tied to the UK after WWI. The British are the enemy. Nobody else can get ships into the Med without British permission. Modern ships are eggshells with sledgehammers. When no one else has sledgehammers it's better to not be eggshells, but Israel can't make armor plate. No one can in 2022. But Italy of 1933 can.

Your assuming that there will be continued conflict or at least severe tension between Britain and Israel.

Also with the Boers and Ireland you do need to remember who started the violence in both cases.

 

[Atarlost]

Your assuming that there will be continued conflict or at least severe tension between Britain and Israel.

Also with the Boers and Ireland you do need to remember who started the violence in both cases.

You're ignoring oil. Israel needs oil not merely as a matter of national survival but population survival. Without it the food distribution network and most of the farms can't operate. And in 1933 the UK controls Persia and the sea routes by which Israel could import oil from anyone else. If the UK even breathes that an embargo might be under consideration Israel must as a matter of survival immediately seize oil fields, and for proximity to infrastructure reasons that's the Sinai. The UK will never forgive that because it puts Israeli border forts along the Suez. Or Israel must support the Shah in nationalizing APOC, which the UK will also never forgive. If Israel seizes the Sinai they must then seize other oil fields because Sinai is only a short term solution. Israel pretty much drained it OTL betweein 1968 and 1978, but that buys enough time to build pipelines to the larger oil fields in the French Syria (if France throws in with the UK) or the British mandates.

The only alternative is unconditional surrender and the UK looting Israel to prop up its fading empire. At best. There's a strong anti-Jewish, pro-Muslim streak in British policy during the mandatory period.

 

[stevep]

You're ignoring oil. Israel needs oil not merely as a matter of national survival but population survival. Without it the food distribution network and most of the farms can't operate. And in 1933 the UK controls Persia and the sea routes by which Israel could import oil from anyone else. If the UK even breathes that an embargo might be under consideration Israel must as a matter of survival immediately seize oil fields, and for proximity to infrastructure reasons that's the Sinai. The UK will never forgive that because it puts Israeli border forts along the Suez. Or Israel must support the Shah in nationalizing APOC, which the UK will also never forgive. If Israel seizes the Sinai they must then seize other oil fields because Sinai is only a short term solution. Israel pretty much drained it OTL betweein 1968 and 1978, but that buys enough time to build pipelines to the larger oil fields in the French Syria (if France throws in with the UK) or the British mandates.

The only alternative is unconditional surrender and the UK looting Israel to prop up its fading empire. At best. There's a strong anti-Jewish, pro-Muslim streak in British policy during the mandatory period.

No I'm not ignoring oil. I'm questioning the idea that large scale conflict is the only and inevitable option.

Britain if faced by the sheer firepower of the modern Israel will look for a mutual compromise. Its only likely to be angry in the short term when its mandate [ or part of depending on what comes back in time] and people based there disappear and are replaced by what some might initially take as a Jewish uprising. Once the government in London gets a clearer idea of what's happened this changes drastically. Especially with everything else going on around the world the loss of an awkward and impoverished mandate territory and the problem of managing both Jews and Arabs in the region is trivial as long as they can be reassured of the security of their other interests in the area. Which are also in Israeli interests as they don't want independent Arab states supporting the 'Palestinian' cause.

Oil could be a bigger problem simply because of an inability to supply enough in time to keep Israel running. It will need a lot more oil than many major nations of the time because the modern cultures are so dependent on it. Plus do the sort of specialised fuels, especially for advanced jet aircraft even exist in 1933? Britain can possibly supply that in sufficient amounts - although it would also possibly need large scale imports from elsewhere, most possibly the US which dominated world oil supplies at the time although how many small 1930's tankers would need to be used to ship oil in whether from Iran, the US or elsewhere? Yes in theory Israel can seize control of Sinai and then seek to develop the oil supplies there quickly - although they would have to start from scratch of course. Then send armoured columns to occupy the Kirkuk region and later bring the Persian oilfields under control. However this means fighting for them, which will cause delays, losses and political problems not just with Britain. Also a middle east under Israeli rather than British control is going to cause them problems as well. If they replace the British do you think they would find controlling those regions as easy as Britain did, especially with the religious tension.

At the same time of course the prime Israeli foreign concern once the nations immediate security is secured would be dealing with the Nazis and trying to save the Jews of Europe. It would be politically impossible to concentrate on anything else and picking a fight with Britain would distract from this. Yes Israel could 'win' this fight quickly by starting to use nukes but that would come at huge diplomatic costs. Or they could win a conventional victory in the ME region for the moment but it that means was with Britain it controls the further sea lanes that Israel would need for trade, in both the Med and Indian Ocean so that would pose a problem for Israel in a longer war in which they would be seen as the clear aggressor.

Yes there was antisemitism in Britain at the time and markedly worse than nowadays but that was the case pretty much anywhere. It was a lot worse in other places and there was a long established Jewish community in Britain that was fairly well integrated and unlike that in Germany wasn't at threat of destruction.

 

[WolfBear]

I would agree there's likely to be a clash with Britain given its suddenly lost a territory adjacent to a vital part of its infrastructure. However once the government realises - probably the hard way admittedly - how powerful Israel actually is and that its not a massive threat unless Britain makes it so their likely to sort things out. After all in the depth of the depression even the short sighted government of the time isn't interested in a war.

Mussolini was an oaf and a potential bully who totally over-estimated the power Italy actually had. He was able to conquer Ethiopia and then latter Albania but failed at every other attempt at aggression and screwed over Italy and a lot of other people in the process. Just because he was an idiot didn't make him any less a murderous dictator.

Re: Ethiopia: I wonder if Israel would seek a deal with Mussolini to allow Ethiopia's Jews to immigrate to Israel. But of course there are also a sizable number of Ethiopians with Jewish roots but who or whose ancestors have subsequently left the faith:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falash_Mura

And with documentation in Ethiopia in the pre-industrial era possibly being unreliable in many cases, well, ...