January 2014 France is ISOT'd back in time to January 1914

[WolfBear]

What if January 2014 France is ISOT'd back in time to January 1914? Some thoughts:

-Nukes. Lots of them. This would make France the undisputed hegemon of Europe for decades and make Germany extremely wary about ever starting any conflicts with the Franco-Russian alliance.
-Nuclear power: Would be viewed as a great future energy source in place of coal and oil.
-Muslims. Lots of them. Would be viewed as an extremely serious problem for future integration. The rest of Europe would be highly keen to take note and would thus be extremely selective about which Muslim immigrants it will ever accept in the future.
-1914 French colonies: 2014 France has no need for them. They get independence whenever they will want it, possibly gradually so that they could build up their own institutions, industries, economies, healthcare systems, et cetera beforehand.
-The European Union and NATO: Would certainly intrigue a lot of Europeans and possibly piss off Russia, but the time likely won't be ripe for the creation of such unions and alliances for a while.

As for January 1914 France being sent over to January 2014:

-It would be a veritable whitopia by Western European standards. It will also be extremely selective with which Muslim and African immigrants it will admit from now on.
-If Algeria is sent back along with France, there will be extremely massive international pressure on France to decolonize it as soon as possible. If necessary, foreign troops might even be used to solve this problem just like they previously were in Kosovo in 1999. After 1914 French people find out what Muslim immigration has done to Western Europe over the next century, though, I think that they would be more willing to let Algeria go, if not immediately, then eventually. Maybe they could reach some kind of deal to allow the pieds-noirs to permanently stay in Algeria, though.
-If Algeria is not sent back along with France, then France simply won't have the necessary technology to reconquer it--nor the economic muscle to withstand crippling Western sanctions, for that matter. So, France likely quickly and reluctantly makes peace with Algerian independence.

Anyway, what do you think?

 

[stevep]

What if January 2014 France is ISOT'd back in time to January 1914? Some thoughts:

-Nukes. Lots of them. This would make France the undisputed hegemon of Europe for decades and make Germany extremely wary about ever starting any conflicts with the Franco-Russian alliance.
-Nuclear power: Would be viewed as a great future energy source in place of coal and oil.
-Muslims. Lots of them. Would be viewed as an extremely serious problem for future integration. The rest of Europe would be highly keen to take note and would thus be extremely selective about which Muslim immigrants it will ever accept in the future.
-1914 French colonies: 2014 France has no need for them. They get independence whenever they will want it, possibly gradually so that they could build up their own institutions, industries, economies, healthcare systems, et cetera beforehand.
-The European Union and NATO: Would certainly intrigue a lot of Europeans and possibly piss off Russia, but the time likely won't be ripe for the creation of such unions and alliances for a while.

As for January 1914 France being sent over to January 2014:

-It would be a veritable whitopia by Western European standards. It will also be extremely selective with which Muslim and African immigrants it will admit from now on.
-If Algeria is sent back along with France, there will be extremely massive international pressure on France to decolonize it as soon as possible. If necessary, foreign troops might even be used to solve this problem just like they previously were in Kosovo in 1999. After 1914 French people find out what Muslim immigration has done to Western Europe over the next century, though, I think that they would be more willing to let Algeria go, if not immediately, then eventually. Maybe they could reach some kind of deal to allow the pieds-noirs to permanently stay in Algeria, though.
-If Algeria is not sent back along with France, then France simply won't have the necessary technology to reconquer it--nor the economic muscle to withstand crippling Western sanctions, for that matter. So, France likely quickly and reluctantly makes peace with Algerian independence.

Anyway, what do you think?

I wouldn't say Europe. They would be hegemon's of the world. Germany would be pissed off about the loss of A-L but if they try and do anything about it - and they could well do so before the reality of what's happened sinks in - then their going to get one hell of a kicking. I suspect that France won't use nukes as it wouldn't need to, although it might make a demonstration on some uninhabited island somewhere to make clear how much more powerful it is than everybody else.

Agree they would want to get rid of the 1914 empire as a waste of resources but they also have to decide what to do with the down-time French there and also how they prepare those nations for independence - or not - and what happens if some neighbour decides 'well the French are moving out so I could try moving in'.

Could be interesting if a number of the Muslim minority in France seek to 'return' to the lands their ancestors came from and seek to upgrade them as there's going to be a hell of a culture shock for both parties.

France will seek to maintain peace and stability in Europe and might even seek to get a reformed but revived Austrian empire as that would provide both an example of a multi-national state and also a check to both German and Russian expansion.

France will have problems with loss of trade items probably mostly energy imports and specialized items such as chips but should be able to recover at not too much lower a level than most powers sent back a century into the past. What they do about the Russia empire would be an issue and possibly also the Turkish one with its tendency for brutal massacres.

1914 France sent to 2014 is going to be a basket case and a hell of a shock for them and also for 2014 Europe as its lost one of the key players in the EU and one of its political centres in Strasbourg. - Or would that still be left over from 2014 as it was in German hands in 1914 and hence not affected. Not sure what effect that might have on events in Britain will regards to the run up to the referendum on leaving the EU? There's also going to be a hell of a tussle on what happens to the French security council seat as that won't stay with 1914 France.

 

[WolfBear]

I wouldn't say Europe. They would be hegemon's of the world. Germany would be pissed off about the loss of A-L but if they try and do anything about it - and they could well do so before the reality of what's happened sinks in - then their going to get one hell of a kicking. I suspect that France won't use nukes as it wouldn't need to, although it might make a demonstration on some uninhabited island somewhere to make clear how much more powerful it is than everybody else.

Agree they would want to get rid of the 1914 empire as a waste of resources but they also have to decide what to do with the down-time French there and also how they prepare those nations for independence - or not - and what happens if some neighbour decides 'well the French are moving out so I could try moving in'.

Could be interesting if a number of the Muslim minority in France seek to 'return' to the lands their ancestors came from and seek to upgrade them as there's going to be a hell of a culture shock for both parties.

France will seek to maintain peace and stability in Europe and might even seek to get a reformed but revived Austrian empire as that would provide both an example of a multi-national state and also a check to both German and Russian expansion.

France will have problems with loss of trade items probably mostly energy imports and specialized items such as chips but should be able to recover at not too much lower a level than most powers sent back a century into the past. What they do about the Russia empire would be an issue and possibly also the Turkish one with its tendency for brutal massacres.

1914 France sent to 2014 is going to be a basket case and a hell of a shock for them and also for 2014 Europe as its lost one of the key players in the EU and one of its political centres in Strasbourg. - Or would that still be left over from 2014 as it was in German hands in 1914 and hence not affected. Not sure what effect that might have on events in Britain will regards to the run up to the referendum on leaving the EU? There's also going to be a hell of a tussle on what happens to the French security council seat as that won't stay with 1914 France.

Makes sense. Also, if Germany starts a war over A-L, it's likely to lose a lot more than A-L. And there won't be a Russian Revolution during WWI in this TL since France's overwhelming military superiority would ensure that the Entente would win a quick victory.

The down-time French there can either stay put or relocate to France. It's up to them to decide. And France will need security treaties with its newly independent former colonies in order to prevent anyone else from every moving in there afterwards. France should be perfectly capable of doing this, I would think. And France and the US will be allies in the decolonization movement in this TL, most likely.

Why exactly would Muslims abandon the good life in France in order to live in some primitive wasteland?

As for Austria-Hungary, France could keep it around but at the same time, given its extremely massive military strength, it could also feel sufficiently confident that, in this TL, unlike in real life, it would actually be capable of maintaining Eastern Europe's security indefinitely. This would be even more true if Russia avoids going Communist in this scenario. Had that been avoided in real life, then the destruction of A-H would not have been a huge loss.

I wonder if France would push for a negotiated partition of the Ottoman Empire in order to eliminate the risk of further massacres, or perhaps tell its Russian ally to stop playing its geopolitical games with the Ottoman Empire's Armenians in order to significantly reduce the risk of the Ottoman Empire ever genociding them. Both scenarios are plausible, frankly.

Wouldn't 1914 France get France's security council seat by default? I mean, who else is going to claim it? And if 1914 Alsace-Lorraine moves to the 2014 world along with 1914 France, then I don't think that 1914 Alsatians and Lorrainers are going to feel too upset about ending up under French rule again rather than under German rule. After all, they didn't make a huge fuss over this in 1918 and beyond in real life.

 

[stevep]

Makes sense. Also, if Germany starts a war over A-L, it's likely to lose a lot more than A-L. And there won't be a Russian Revolution during WWI in this TL since France's overwhelming military superiority would ensure that the Entente would win a quick victory.

No so sure of that, at least on the western front. France is secure in its own borders with its massive technological advantage so would it want significant numbers of down-time Germans who either have to be oppressed or given full civil rights? You could well see social/political changes impossible on Germany to break the power of the aristocrats and military. Possibly also a partition of Prussia to stop that being so dominant in Germany.

Technically imperial Russia and 2014 France aren't allies but I would expect that a German dow on France would get a Russian response simply because St Petersburg wouldn't realise what happened before they make the decision on hearing of the German dow. They quite possibly wouldn't get time to actually mobilize anything significant prior to the German surrender however. If they do get news of the new France they might be less friendly to it given its social values.

Assuming that Germany starts a war its likely to invade Belgium. If so Britain will very likely join the conflict, albeit that won't be needed. Austria might not have time to do anything significant before things are all over either.

The down-time French there can either stay put or relocate to France. It's up to them to decide. And France will need security treaties with its newly independent former colonies in order to prevent anyone else from every moving in there afterwards. France should be perfectly capable of doing this, I would think. And France and the US will be allies in the decolonization movement in this TL, most likely.

Initially they will want to stay and maintain their political and economic power. Would 2014 France be willing to forcibly deport them to 2014 France to prevent that? If they simply act to remove the settlers powers then their going to be in the middle of a bloody power struggle.

Why exactly would Muslims abandon the good life in France in order to live in some primitive wasteland?

A lot of them have pretty unpleasant lives as an underclass. Furthermore they might not realise how backwards their former homelands are or the social and political issues they would face on 'returning'. Then there might be feelings of national or religious solidarity with the lands they identify with. Also some might see opportunities for considerable personal wealth and power simply because of what they know.

As for Austria-Hungary, France could keep it around but at the same time, given its extremely massive military strength, it could also feel sufficiently confident that, in this TL, unlike in real life, it would actually be capable of maintaining Eastern Europe's security indefinitely. This would be even more true if Russia avoids going Communist in this scenario. Had that been avoided in real life, then the destruction of A-H would not have been a huge loss.

It could feel its going to maintain stability in Europe for decades but how much work would that be without any 'friendly' powers to work with? Not to mention allowing the Hapsburg empire to collapse - let along prompting that effective - is itself going to cause chaos and probably a lot of violence and economic disruption as assorted groups fight for their interests and positions.

I wonder if France would push for a negotiated partition of the Ottoman Empire in order to eliminate the risk of further massacres, or perhaps tell its Russian ally to stop playing its geopolitical games with the Ottoman Empire's Armenians in order to significantly reduce the risk of the Ottoman Empire ever genociding them. Both scenarios are plausible, frankly.

Its going to have to decide what it wants as a solution and how much effort its going to put into achieving that solution. Then of course the problem most states, especially democratic ones have of maintaining that solution especially if that flies in the face of the facts on the ground. You could end up with France seeking to protect an Armenian state alienating both the Turks and the Russians.

Wouldn't 1914 France get France's security council seat by default? I mean, who else is going to claim it? And if 1914 Alsace-Lorraine moves to the 2014 world along with 1914 France, then I don't think that 1914 Alsatians and Lorrainers are going to feel too upset about ending up under French rule again rather than under German rule. After all, they didn't make a huge fuss over this in 1918 and beyond in real life.

Why? Its totally out of place and has no real claim on the seat other than a geographical chance. Plus there is a feeling that the UN is too dominated by white, largely western powers - 4 of the 5 permanent members of the Security council being of European origin, with China being the only exception. I could well see India for instance making a case for it going to them and getting a hell of a lot of support.

If 1914 A-L came forward as well I could well agree. Think 2014 Germany, a few on the right as exceptions would probably suggest a plebiscite on the issue and as you say its likely to go for becoming French again. Doubly so since France is from their own time and hence familiar rather than the radically different world their now in. Some would want to move 'back' to Germany and they would have to adjust to the 2014 world more drastically than those who stay in A-L.

If A-L is still from 2014 I wonder if it might decide on independence. France will be so alien to it while I don't know if it would want to become German.

Either way the EU is going to face issues. Obviously France is now to all intents and purposes outside the organisation and not apply things like its rules, the Euro etc and there's going to be problems with EU and other trade that now has to deal with 1914 French legislation and also logistics and transport systems.

My point was that Strasbourg still has some functions in the government of the EU and if that was lost to the 1914 version it would further complicate matters.