raharris1973
Well-known member
What if the Great Powers intervened to stop Italy from launching its attack on the Ottoman Empire in 1911?
The Italo-Ottoman War in 1911 started a cascade of wars in the region that didn't stop until about 1923, contributing to the following 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars, 1st World War and Greco-Turkish War.
In OTL, Italy had shopped around Europe for years, getting support from formal allies and informal partners for its claim to Ottoman Tripoli and ultimately for its war to seize it from the Ottomans.
What I'll provide is two scenarios where one or another group of powers flashes a big red stop sign in front of the Italians, discouraging them from proceeding, and will look to explore the consequences of each.
1) As tensions rise between the Italians and the Ottoman Empire, the Entente powers, not wanting to displease Italy, have been advising the Young Turk government to yield to Italian demands for a protectorate over Libya that leaves the Ottomans nominally suzerain. They've found it frustrating to wear down Ottoman resistance, but are also finding increasing Italian rhetoric, which indicates that Italy may be going for a warlike resolution no matter what Turkey says to any ultimatum, disturbing.
As the Italians begin to privately signal that their honor and pride demands a war of conquest, diplomats of Britain, France, and Russia who hear this all compare notes and are disturbed for multiple reasons. Britain, while having no objection in principle to an Italian Libya, fears the destabilizing effects on the attempting to reform Young Turk regime, the Muslim population of Egypt, or the Balkans. The French worry about the effects of an outright war on the Ottomans on France's extensive investment in the empire, and Ottoman ability to consistently make payments back to French banks on its debts. The Russians have no love for the Turks at all, and hope to inherit as much of their empire as they can when the time is right. But a naval conflict in the Mediterranean, particularly any Italian blockade of the Turkish straits, threatens Russia's grain exports revenues.
The Entente Ambassadors from coordinating determine that Britain should take the lead for the group in conveying the unacceptability of war to the Italians, with the Russians joining in and the French very much in the rear.
With implicit threats to coal supplies and credit to sustain it, Italy knows a war isn't practical.
I think Italy would be frustrated and irritated with the Entente powers in particular. Additionally, the likelihood of the Balkans Wars starting in the next couple of years goes way down.
Italy doesn't like Austria any better than it did before, but it has little trust in being able to switch to an Entente alignment after getting cock-blocked in its quest for Libya.
2) On hearing Italy gear up for claiming Libya and threatening to go to war with the Ottomans over it, about the only good thing the Austrians see in it is that Italy is not paining a target on them. Other than that, it's bad news, threatening near east commerce, to weaken the Ottomans, and allow Balkan powers, notably the Serbs, to grow stronger. Of course Italy doesn't really give a damn what Austria thinks. However, in this ATL, The Germans come to a similar point of view as the Austrians, because of their investments in the Ottoman Empire, and their anticipation of the value of the Ottoman Empire as a potential ally against the Triple Entente powers, especially Russia.
With Germany drawing the line firmly against an actual Italian plunge into war, and implicitly threatening coal supplies and financing, the Italians come to see launching war as impractical.
I think Italy would be frustrated and irritated with its erstwhile Triple Alliance partners in particular. Additionally, the likelihood of the Balkans Wars starting in the next couple of years goes way down.
With Italy's normal resentment against Austria-Hungary escalated, and new reasons to be frustrated with Germany, its drift toward the Triple Entente powers is accelerated.
The Italo-Ottoman War in 1911 started a cascade of wars in the region that didn't stop until about 1923, contributing to the following 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars, 1st World War and Greco-Turkish War.
In OTL, Italy had shopped around Europe for years, getting support from formal allies and informal partners for its claim to Ottoman Tripoli and ultimately for its war to seize it from the Ottomans.
What I'll provide is two scenarios where one or another group of powers flashes a big red stop sign in front of the Italians, discouraging them from proceeding, and will look to explore the consequences of each.
1) As tensions rise between the Italians and the Ottoman Empire, the Entente powers, not wanting to displease Italy, have been advising the Young Turk government to yield to Italian demands for a protectorate over Libya that leaves the Ottomans nominally suzerain. They've found it frustrating to wear down Ottoman resistance, but are also finding increasing Italian rhetoric, which indicates that Italy may be going for a warlike resolution no matter what Turkey says to any ultimatum, disturbing.
As the Italians begin to privately signal that their honor and pride demands a war of conquest, diplomats of Britain, France, and Russia who hear this all compare notes and are disturbed for multiple reasons. Britain, while having no objection in principle to an Italian Libya, fears the destabilizing effects on the attempting to reform Young Turk regime, the Muslim population of Egypt, or the Balkans. The French worry about the effects of an outright war on the Ottomans on France's extensive investment in the empire, and Ottoman ability to consistently make payments back to French banks on its debts. The Russians have no love for the Turks at all, and hope to inherit as much of their empire as they can when the time is right. But a naval conflict in the Mediterranean, particularly any Italian blockade of the Turkish straits, threatens Russia's grain exports revenues.
The Entente Ambassadors from coordinating determine that Britain should take the lead for the group in conveying the unacceptability of war to the Italians, with the Russians joining in and the French very much in the rear.
With implicit threats to coal supplies and credit to sustain it, Italy knows a war isn't practical.
I think Italy would be frustrated and irritated with the Entente powers in particular. Additionally, the likelihood of the Balkans Wars starting in the next couple of years goes way down.
Italy doesn't like Austria any better than it did before, but it has little trust in being able to switch to an Entente alignment after getting cock-blocked in its quest for Libya.
2) On hearing Italy gear up for claiming Libya and threatening to go to war with the Ottomans over it, about the only good thing the Austrians see in it is that Italy is not paining a target on them. Other than that, it's bad news, threatening near east commerce, to weaken the Ottomans, and allow Balkan powers, notably the Serbs, to grow stronger. Of course Italy doesn't really give a damn what Austria thinks. However, in this ATL, The Germans come to a similar point of view as the Austrians, because of their investments in the Ottoman Empire, and their anticipation of the value of the Ottoman Empire as a potential ally against the Triple Entente powers, especially Russia.
With Germany drawing the line firmly against an actual Italian plunge into war, and implicitly threatening coal supplies and financing, the Italians come to see launching war as impractical.
I think Italy would be frustrated and irritated with its erstwhile Triple Alliance partners in particular. Additionally, the likelihood of the Balkans Wars starting in the next couple of years goes way down.
With Italy's normal resentment against Austria-Hungary escalated, and new reasons to be frustrated with Germany, its drift toward the Triple Entente powers is accelerated.