If you could change three events in post-1815 Russian history, which events would you change?

[History Learner]

Only marginally less batshit than Tsar Paul's lunatic plan to invade India. Badmayev was a crank. Not an incapable man, but his pet obsession was cmpletely impractical. Tsar Alexander's response to the plan says it all: "All this is so novel, so unusual and fantastic that it is difficult to believe in the possibility of success."

If the Tsar happens to hit his head really hard and becomes brain-damaged enough to sign off on it, the result is a 100% chance of war with Britain. Germany thanks you for this wonderful opportunity, as you have effectively turned Britain against you. This means France can either forget about the Entente, or has to break ties with Russia. Either way, Germany wins.

If you want Russia to be a superpower, the main trick is to delay war, not to hasten it with crazy stunts. Time favours Russia. The earlier any Great War starts, the more Russia is screwed. The later it starts, the stronger Russia will be.

Sergei Witte definitely was none of those things, and his endorsement I think speaks volumes. I'd agree trying to take in all of China and Tibet was out of the question, which is why there was two proposals and the later one took the far more modest goal of Northern China, rather than all of it. In 1893, the Entente between Russia and France had already been signed while the lapse between Germany and Russia was extremely recent and had not yet decisively driven a wedge between the powers; just a few short years later you saw the Triple Intervention against Japan by Paris-Berlin-Moscow.

 

[Skallagrim]

Sergei Witte definitely was none of those things, and his endorsement I think speaks volumes. I'd agree trying to take in all of China and Tibet was out of the question, which is why there was two proposals and the later one took the far more modest goal of Northern China, rather than all of it. In 1893, the Entente between Russia and France had already been signed while the lapse between Germany and Russia was extremely recent and had not yet decisively driven a wedge between the powers; just a few short years later you saw the Triple Intervention against Japan by Paris-Berlin-Moscow.

It should be noted that t this day, historians are puzzled as to why Witte supported Badmayev's plan. In any event, Witte soon became disenchanted with Badmayev and his ideas. For my money, I'd say Witte was taken up by a grandiose vision, which appealed to his own (partially religious) conviction that Russia had a task to export its authority and culture into Asia. For this reason, Witte may well have believed Badmayev's claims about support for Russian "liberation" in China, because he wanted to believe it. It would be neither the first nor the last time that an intelligent man has been enthoused by a wild scheme proposed by a convincing person, even though on later reflection, it turns out to be unrealistic.

In any case, as I argued in previous posts, the more ambitious version(s) of the plan are both incredibly unrealistic and will because war with Britain. Meanwhile, the considerably less ambitious versions aren't worth the investment, because what you gain isn't worth the considerable cost and the adversity it'll incur.

 

[History Learner]

It should be noted that t this day, historians are puzzled as to why Witte supported Badmayev's plan. In any event, Witte soon became disenchanted with Badmayev and his ideas. For my money, I'd say Witte was taken up by a grandiose vision, which appealed to his own (partially religious) conviction that Russia had a task to export its authority and culture into Asia. For this reason, Witte may well have believed Badmayev's claims about support for Russian "liberation" in China, because he wanted to believe it. It would be neither the first nor the last time that an intelligent man has been enthoused by a wild scheme proposed by a convincing person, even though on later reflection, it turns out to be unrealistic.

In any case, as I argued in previous posts, the more ambitious version(s) of the plan are both incredibly unrealistic and will because war with Britain. Meanwhile, the considerably less ambitious versions aren't worth the investment, because what you gain isn't worth the considerable cost and the adversity it'll incur.

The less ambition plan would secure for Russia the security belt they've been seeking for at least a century and a half (Both Mongolias, Xinjiang, and Manchuria), giving them the shorter railway route to Vladivostok, securing Siberia, and Manchuria and Mongolia in particular offer serious economic benefits. Depending on where we define the limits of Northern China, the economic benefits may be more magnified and sufficient for the Tsar to usurp the title of Emperor of China if Russian troops secure Peking.

 

[Skallagrim]

The less ambition plan would secure for Russia the security belt they've been seeking for at least a century and a half (Both Mongolias, Xinjiang, and Manchuria), giving them the shorter railway route to Vladivostok, securing Siberia, and Manchuria and Mongolia in particular offer serious economic benefits. Depending on where we define the limits of Northern China, the economic benefits may be more magnified and sufficient for the Tsar to usurp the title of Emperor of China if Russian troops secure Peking.

They're not going to get that. They're going to get a war with Britain, albeit a somewhat less dramatic one than if they try to annex Tibet and/or all of China. And that war isn't going to end with Britain just saying "oh, you get to keep what you took, that's okay". It's going to end with Russia probably getting some relatively minor concessions, and having to sign loads of treaties binding them to respect China's territorial integrity thereafter.

 

[History Learner]

They're not going to get that. They're going to get a war with Britain, albeit a somewhat less dramatic one than if they try to annex Tibet and/or all of China. And that war isn't going to end with Britain just saying "oh, you get to keep what you took, that's okay". It's going to end with Russia probably getting some relatively minor concessions, and having to sign loads of treaties binding them to respect China's territorial integrity thereafter.

Britain didn't declare war over Pre Russo-Japanese War advancements of Russia into China, which saw the vast majority of Manchuria-including the warm water Port Arthur-fall into Moscow's hands, along with large areas of Xinjiang and essentially all of Mongolia.

 

[Skallagrim]

Britain didn't declare war over Pre Russo-Japanese War advancements of Russia into China, which saw the vast majority of Manchuria-including the warm water Port Arthur-fall into Moscow's hands, along with large areas of Xinjiang and essentially all of Mongolia.

I can't stress enough that "get myself a warm water port and some nice spheres of influence (nor direct annexation)" is not the same as "loads and loads of land-grabbing and also we march into Peking and now the Tsar is claiming the Mandate of Heaven, that you very much".

Britain was worried about Russia's ambitions in OTL, but they didn't get pressing enough to really incite conflict, and they were motly acted upon after the Great Game had run its course. Also, Russia got humbled by the Japanese, and that actually made Britain feel a bit better -- at least about the particular issue of "potential for Russia threatening our Asiatic interests".

If Russia's ambitions suddenly become very pressing indeed, at the tail end of the Great Game, that's another story. Britain was willing to deal with the Germans in 1899 to keep Russia out of China (and Germany dropped the ball on that). If were talking early to mid-1890s instead, there's still way more worry about Russia in Britain, and less worry about Germany. Also, Britain and France haven't had time to cozy up yet. So if Russia suddenly appears to go bonkers and tries to conquer China, Britain is definitely going to act. And by "act" I mean "vigorously prosecute a global war against Russia with the aim of making Russia withdraw from all of China and ensuring that Russia never violates China's territorial integrity ever again".

It ends when the Union Jack flies over Vladivostok.

Oh, sorry, did I say "Vladivostok"? I meant, of course, New Victoria.

 

[Agent23]

What, no successful Decembrist revolt?

1. Russia discovers gold in Alaska and California, thus they are not sold off, this would also require that they acknowledge Mexico as an independent state so as to make the control over the California teriotries they had fully legitimate and probably motivates Russia to actually honor the pacts its representatives made with the Hawaiians.

2. No Crimean war

3. Nikolay I is taken out of the succession.

 

[History Learner]

I can't stress enough that "get myself a warm water port and some nice spheres of influence (nor direct annexation)" is not the same as "loads and loads of land-grabbing and also we march into Peking and now the Tsar is claiming the Mandate of Heaven, that you very much".

Britain was worried about Russia's ambitions in OTL, but they didn't get pressing enough to really incite conflict, and they were motly acted upon after the Great Game had run its course. Also, Russia got humbled by the Japanese, and that actually made Britain feel a bit better -- at least about the particular issue of "potential for Russia threatening our Asiatic interests".

If Russia's ambitions suddenly become very pressing indeed, at the tail end of the Great Game, that's another story. Britain was willing to deal with the Germans in 1899 to keep Russia out of China (and Germany dropped the ball on that). If were talking early to mid-1890s instead, there's still way more worry about Russia in Britain, and less worry about Germany. Also, Britain and France haven't had time to cozy up yet. So if Russia suddenly appears to go bonkers and tries to conquer China, Britain is definitely going to act. And by "act" I mean "vigorously prosecute a global war against Russia with the aim of making Russia withdraw from all of China and ensuring that Russia never violates China's territorial integrity ever again".

It ends when the Union Jack flies over Vladivostok.

Oh, sorry, did I say "Vladivostok"? I meant, of course, New Victoria.

But Russia did gobble up large amounts in the 19th Century and even during the height of the Great Game, in terms of fixing the borders both in Central Asia and Mongolia, as well as annexing Outer Manchuria in the first place to get Vladivostok. Russian control over Tibet would be a threat, but the British lack any serious fundamental interests to warrant a war over Xinjiang, Mongolia and Manchuria, particularly given they didn't go to war over Port Arthur when the Russians had it for a decade before the Russo-Japanese War. Peking might be pushing it, but if Moscow can form up the Triple Powers here-which it probably can with the right inducements for France and Germany-Britain is long past its prime to challenge such a grouping.

 

[WolfBear]

But Russia did gobble up large amounts in the 19th Century and even during the height of the Great Game, in terms of fixing the borders both in Central Asia and Mongolia, as well as annexing Outer Manchuria in the first place to get Vladivostok. Russian control over Tibet would be a threat, but the British lack any serious fundamental interests to warrant a war over Xinjiang, Mongolia and Manchuria, particularly given they didn't go to war over Port Arthur when the Russians had it for a decade before the Russo-Japanese War. Peking might be pushing it, but if Moscow can form up the Triple Powers here-which it probably can with the right inducements for France and Germany-Britain is long past its prime to challenge such a grouping.

Would Chinese accept that Russia has the Mandate of Heaven if it controls Peking but not southern China?

 

[History Learner]

Would Chinese accept that Russia has the Mandate of Heaven if it controls Peking but not southern China?

It's certainly not without precedent in Chinese history. I do agree with the specific criticisms in that regard that doing so could be pushing it vis-a-vis Britain, but I think Russia could get away with a fair amount here.

 

[WolfBear]

It's certainly not without precedent in Chinese history. I do agree with the specific criticisms in that regard that doing so could be pushing it vis-a-vis Britain, but I think Russia could get away with a fair amount here.

I'd love to see so many Chinese people in Russia just so long as they weren't secret Chinese spies, to be honest!

 

[Agent23]

I'd love to see so many Chinese people in Russia just so long as they weren't secret Chinese spies, to be honest!

A lot of Russia's expansion eastward was for security reasons, not just trade.Their primary goals in the Far East was to get a warm water port and to make sure the British or any other Great Power did not hit them in the Far East.
Expanding trade and territorial expansion were a second priority, since Russia already had lots of land.

 

[WolfBear]

A lot of Russia's expansion eastward was for security reasons, not just trade.Their primary goals in the Far East was to get a warm water port and to make sure the British or any other Great Power did not hit them in the Far East.
Expanding trade and territorial expansion were a second priority, since Russia already had lots of land.

By that logic, though, expanding further into Inner Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang would have provided even better security for Russia, no?

 

[Atarlost]

What, no successful Decembrist revolt?

1. Russia discovers gold in Alaska and California, thus they are not sold off, this would also require that they acknowledge Mexico as an independent state so as to make the control over the California teriotries they had fully legitimate and probably motivates Russia to actually honor the pacts its representatives made with the Hawaiians.

Russia never had control over California. The only Europeans or European descendants to ever hold it were the Spanish, Mexicans, and Americans. I don't think it ever had anything to do with Hawaii either. If it had guaranteed their independence and tried to go to war to protect Hawaiian sovereignty it would have been futile because of the severe issues geography imposes on its navy. Russia lacks population in the East and requires three navies. One for the Baltic, one for the Black Sea to face the Ottomans, and one for the Pacific. It also needs an army to face its European neighbors and the Ottomans. And kind of needs an army to face Japan.

 

[Agent23]

Russia never had control over California. The only Europeans or European descendants to ever hold it were the Spanish, Mexicans, and Americans. I don't think it ever had anything to do with Hawaii either. If it had guaranteed their independence and tried to go to war to protect Hawaiian sovereignty it would have been futile because of the severe issues geography imposes on its navy. Russia lacks population in the East and requires three navies. One for the Baltic, one for the Black Sea to face the Ottomans, and one for the Pacific. It also needs an army to face its European neighbors and the Ottomans. And kind of needs an army to face Japan.

Um, google Fort Ross, also the Russians did go into negotiations for mutual aid with the Hawaiians, their primary objective was to get supplies for their Alaska colonies, the Fort Ross settlements though were technically on Mexican territory, Maxico would have been OK with handing them over in return for recognition from the Tzar, but he didn't want to give it on account of them being a breakaway republican colony.

TBH I think that the Russians focusing on Alaska and California could help them out with their troubles with the British.

Britain's main problem with Russia was related to Central Asia, more specifically the Birtish were afraid that the Russians might try and grab India.

Also, remember that the British was trying to split up and undermine the Americans to the best of its abilities, and the Russians carving a bit of territory before the USA could snatch it just might be seen as an advantage.

Of course the Russians and the British will have to settle the Great Game and have at least one major treaty demarking their possessions in Central Asia and the Americas.

Also remember that Russia sided heavily with the Northern states in the civil war, thus interfering with Franco-Biritsh plans to aid the Confederacy.

In this TL, that doesn't happen.