How would a restored French monarchy in the 1870s have affected Vichy France?

[WolfBear]

How would a restored French monarchy in the 1870s have affected Vichy France, assuming that there is a giant "butterfly net" to prevent the use of any butterfly effects? In real life, the French monarchy was almost restored in the early 1870s and would have been had Henri, Count of Chambord died a decade earlier than he did in real life. Had this occurred, and all butterflies would have magically been avoided, and the French monarchy would have subsequently survived until World War II and the Fall of France, just how much harder would it have been for someone like Charles de Gaulle to organize a French government-in-exile (and also a French military-in-exile) if the French King would have openly supported the Vichy regime? And what about foreign countries' recognition of the Free French government as France's legitimate government? How would that have been affected here? And if the Allies will still win World War II in this TL, would the French monarchy have subsequently gotten abolished as punishment for its association with the Vichy regime?

Any thoughts on all of this?

 

[raharris1973]

just how much harder would it have been for someone like Charles de Gaulle to organize a French government-in-exile (and also a French military-in-exile) if the French King would have openly supported the Vichy regime?

Not much at all. Even though the effective life of the Provisional Government/Third Republic would have been brief compared to the first Republic and the restored French Kingdom, the idea of French Republicanism would still exist, and de Gaulle can lead a movement of patriotic defiance that is can be happy to work with a sympathetic member of the dynasty or extended royal family, be outright republican, or silent on the matter.

And if the Allies will still win World War II in this TL, would the French monarchy have subsequently gotten abolished as punishment for its association with the Vichy regime?

Quite likely so. It could have been put to referendum like in Italy. Certainly the wartime King who collaborated would be dethroned, as would any Crown Prince or Queen or heir who was seen to collaborate. The option of a continued monarchy under a member of the dynasty seen to have kept their "hands clean" might be an option as well.

 

[WolfBear]

Not much at all. Even though the effective life of the Provisional Government/Third Republic would have been brief compared to the first Republic and the restored French Kingdom, the idea of French Republicanism would still exist, and de Gaulle can lead a movement of patriotic defiance that is can be happy to work with a sympathetic member of the dynasty or extended royal family, be outright republican, or silent on the matter.



Quite likely so. It could have been put to referendum like in Italy. Certainly the wartime King who collaborated would be dethroned, as would any Crown Prince or Queen or heir who was seen to collaborate. The option of a continued monarchy under a member of the dynasty seen to have kept their "hands clean" might be an option as well.

I suspect that De Gaulle (or whichever alt-De Gaulle figure will emerge in this TL) will say that expelling the Germans from France is the most important priority and that the issue of France's form of government can be decided later, similar to the stance adopted by the Italian resistance during World War II to my knowledge.

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. Honestly, I suspect that such a referendum would have swung in a more republican direction than Italy's 1946 referendum did in real life, but I can't be completely sure about this because there could be some hope of the monarchists winning such a referendum if they will rally behind a Gaullist resistance fighter member of the French royal family, as you yourself said here. In such a scenario, if the monarchists actually win, then the French would need to strip all collaborationist French royal family members of their royal status--or something like that. But it could get complicated trying to find out to what extent each French royal family member collaborated. Anyway, though, I'd still put the odds in favor of the republicans winning such a French referendum, after which point all of the French royals other than the ones who were involved with either the Free French or the French Resistance will forcibly get sent into exile, as happened with all of the male members of the Italian House of Savoy in 1948, a decision that was not revoked until 2002 to my knowledge, when the remaining male Savoyards were finally allowed to return to Italy.