Clusterfuck, even for our standards.
Bolsonaro got elected partially on conservative rage against 18 years(I count Fernando Henrique Cardoso's administration on this) of leftist governments and 2 years of Centrão(the kleptocratic 'silent majority' of Brazilian Congress, in short) governing. When COVID came, and he almost ot ousted from power, he openly joined hands with Centrão and discarded every single conservative he had on his government, yet kept the façade of being a conservative president. He has lost votes(mine included), but still has some support.
What will be facing him... not publicly known yet(candidates have to officially enroll for election by early August), but there will be some sort of left alliance(including - irony of ironies - a PT-PSDB coalition with a Lula-Alckmin ticket), and a few other guys who have no chance of getting elected. I see lots of polls saying that Bolsonaro loses in the second round election to whatever candidate is presented, but it seems strange to me there would be so much scheming going around on the open if that was true.
My guess, right now, is that, unless people manage to find a way to nullify Bolsonaro's candidature or get the fraud going(I wouldn't discard any of these possibilities), Bolsonaro wins by a narrow margin. Not because of what he did, but by the paltry showing I've seen so far regarding opposing candidates.
www.tmz.com
