raharris1973
Well-known member
1) what if German took over the Spanish claimed Caroline and Palau islands earlier than OTL, in the 1880s?
By 1884-1885 Germany and Spain had conflicting claims over the Caroline and Palau islands in Micronesia. When Spain moved to formalize it’s claim Germany made countermoves. Each side sent gunships and raised flags on small islands.
Spaniards rioted against Germans and German diplomatic property and Bismarck worried about trade losses in Spain. In the end Bismarck proposed papal mediation which awarded sovereignty to Spain but gave access to German business and permitted Germany to take over the Marshalls.
What if Bismarck decided against arbitration in this case, or became incapacitated in this crisis and he or a successor stuck to bilateral competition and gunboat diplomacy?
Who grabs more islands, Germany or Spain? Does Spain back down, or does it lead to German Spanish war.
Many do not perceive Germany in the 1880s as the serious naval power it was in the 1900s. It is true it was not as strong this early, but already by 1882 Germany was third in Europe, behind only Britain and France in armored warship tonnage, so it was certainly ahead of Spain.
If there is a German Spanish war would Germany just win the contested territiries, or also other Spanish pacific territories like the Marianas, Guam, and Philippines, possibly African ones like Rio Muni near the equator, and Rio de Oro south of the equator?
Would other powers intervene on either the Spanish or German side? Who would do it and why?
2) what if Italy joined Russia’s war against the Ottomans in 1876-77?
What if Italy opportunistically attacks the Turks after Russia does, at least opening a front to seize Tunis, and possibly opening second front in Albania?
Would Italy be prepared to perform well and win against local Ottoman forces in either Tunis or Albania?
Assuming the Italians can handle the Turks and seized desired terrain, would any other powers object and intervene to block Italian annexations?
In the case of Tunis, would Britain object? On the one hand, Rome gets both sides of the central med straits. On the other, Italy is weak and kind of a British favorite.
France? Wanting Tunis for itself?
Might the Austrians or Serbs intervene to counter an Italian intervention in Albania?
3) What if German merchants and diplomats an in the Asia Pacific ran a shoestring side campaign against France in the region during the Franco-Prussian war?
Various Germans pull a “Lawrence of Arabia”-lite campaign in Southeast Asia against France’s then small and young empire in Indochina, while the main war goes on in Europe.
Diplomats and gunboat skippers representing the North GermanConfederation or Prussia, and merchants representing the Hamburger South Seas and Godeffroy firms implement this.
What this “German” effort consists of is initially diplomacy in the court of the King of Siam, advertising the defeats of the French in Europe, German victories, the capture of the French emperor, and emphasizing this is a good short term moment for Siam to invade and support an anti French uprising in Cambodia. France had only made Cambodia a protectorate 8 years before the Franco-Prussian War, and offended Siam greatly in the process, since Cambodia had been a Siamese vassal.
The Germans promise support with gunboats and sell guns and cannon from their own stocks and third party sellers operating in the region (possibly British, Dutch, or Americans) to encourage the Siamese.
The “Germans” also point out the long term advantages of trade relations with a rising Germany.
A similar mission goes to Annam to call upon the still independent authorities of that country and pay respect to any Chinese officials present. They also point out French defeats in Europe, Germany’s rising strength, and the special opportunity for the Vietnamese to support an invasion/uprising against the French occupying their far southern provinces around Saigon and the Mekong (what the French called Cochinchine) . Here again the Germans offer to provide support with gunships, military advice, guns and ammo.
Let’s say dealing with the dual invasions and uprisings and that trickle of modern supplies and advice, and unable to get any reinforcement in the months while Paris is besieged, the commune is fought, and peace is negotiated, the French need to retreat from indochina to Singapore or Manila.
What happens if in addition to the humiliation of Frankfurt, loss of Alsace Lorraine to Germany, France is forced to concede independence to Vietnam and Cambodia? That is extra humiliation.
I think German prestige in those areas would rise, but Germany’a power projection, at least for the 1870s will still be far too weak to support imposing a colonial protectorate or dominion over Siam, Annam, or Cambodia. Because of this weakness, Germany will end up regarded as an equal ally, admired by local elites, and the southeast Asian sideshow will be good advertising for German military, naval, educational and technical advising in the years ahead in China and Japan in addition to being good for business.
France will have the physical power at a later point to recolonize Vietnam, but it would have to start from scratch. In any case the revanchist priority will be Alsace-Lorraine ahead of Indochina.
By 1884-1885 Germany and Spain had conflicting claims over the Caroline and Palau islands in Micronesia. When Spain moved to formalize it’s claim Germany made countermoves. Each side sent gunships and raised flags on small islands.
Spaniards rioted against Germans and German diplomatic property and Bismarck worried about trade losses in Spain. In the end Bismarck proposed papal mediation which awarded sovereignty to Spain but gave access to German business and permitted Germany to take over the Marshalls.
What if Bismarck decided against arbitration in this case, or became incapacitated in this crisis and he or a successor stuck to bilateral competition and gunboat diplomacy?
Who grabs more islands, Germany or Spain? Does Spain back down, or does it lead to German Spanish war.
Many do not perceive Germany in the 1880s as the serious naval power it was in the 1900s. It is true it was not as strong this early, but already by 1882 Germany was third in Europe, behind only Britain and France in armored warship tonnage, so it was certainly ahead of Spain.
If there is a German Spanish war would Germany just win the contested territiries, or also other Spanish pacific territories like the Marianas, Guam, and Philippines, possibly African ones like Rio Muni near the equator, and Rio de Oro south of the equator?
Would other powers intervene on either the Spanish or German side? Who would do it and why?
2) what if Italy joined Russia’s war against the Ottomans in 1876-77?
What if Italy opportunistically attacks the Turks after Russia does, at least opening a front to seize Tunis, and possibly opening second front in Albania?
Would Italy be prepared to perform well and win against local Ottoman forces in either Tunis or Albania?
Assuming the Italians can handle the Turks and seized desired terrain, would any other powers object and intervene to block Italian annexations?
In the case of Tunis, would Britain object? On the one hand, Rome gets both sides of the central med straits. On the other, Italy is weak and kind of a British favorite.
France? Wanting Tunis for itself?
Might the Austrians or Serbs intervene to counter an Italian intervention in Albania?
3) What if German merchants and diplomats an in the Asia Pacific ran a shoestring side campaign against France in the region during the Franco-Prussian war?
Various Germans pull a “Lawrence of Arabia”-lite campaign in Southeast Asia against France’s then small and young empire in Indochina, while the main war goes on in Europe.
Diplomats and gunboat skippers representing the North GermanConfederation or Prussia, and merchants representing the Hamburger South Seas and Godeffroy firms implement this.
What this “German” effort consists of is initially diplomacy in the court of the King of Siam, advertising the defeats of the French in Europe, German victories, the capture of the French emperor, and emphasizing this is a good short term moment for Siam to invade and support an anti French uprising in Cambodia. France had only made Cambodia a protectorate 8 years before the Franco-Prussian War, and offended Siam greatly in the process, since Cambodia had been a Siamese vassal.
The Germans promise support with gunboats and sell guns and cannon from their own stocks and third party sellers operating in the region (possibly British, Dutch, or Americans) to encourage the Siamese.
The “Germans” also point out the long term advantages of trade relations with a rising Germany.
A similar mission goes to Annam to call upon the still independent authorities of that country and pay respect to any Chinese officials present. They also point out French defeats in Europe, Germany’s rising strength, and the special opportunity for the Vietnamese to support an invasion/uprising against the French occupying their far southern provinces around Saigon and the Mekong (what the French called Cochinchine) . Here again the Germans offer to provide support with gunships, military advice, guns and ammo.
Let’s say dealing with the dual invasions and uprisings and that trickle of modern supplies and advice, and unable to get any reinforcement in the months while Paris is besieged, the commune is fought, and peace is negotiated, the French need to retreat from indochina to Singapore or Manila.
What happens if in addition to the humiliation of Frankfurt, loss of Alsace Lorraine to Germany, France is forced to concede independence to Vietnam and Cambodia? That is extra humiliation.
I think German prestige in those areas would rise, but Germany’a power projection, at least for the 1870s will still be far too weak to support imposing a colonial protectorate or dominion over Siam, Annam, or Cambodia. Because of this weakness, Germany will end up regarded as an equal ally, admired by local elites, and the southeast Asian sideshow will be good advertising for German military, naval, educational and technical advising in the years ahead in China and Japan in addition to being good for business.
France will have the physical power at a later point to recolonize Vietnam, but it would have to start from scratch. In any case the revanchist priority will be Alsace-Lorraine ahead of Indochina.
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