What If? ASBs fill the Axis gas tank, December 1941

[raharris1973]

The Matzen oilfield of Austria and Schoonbeek oilfield of Netherlands and all their refining equipment and infrastructure are ISOT from the beginning of the postwar peak production years back in time to their then Nazi occupied locations on December 10th, 1941.

All the oilfields, production and distribution infrastructure of Libya from its modern production peak time is ISOT back to December 10th, 1941. But uptime resources and infrastructure only "lands" downtime on Italian or Axis controlled ground, not British or Free French. If the British capture ground, the infrastructure vanishes, even if the Allies didn't damage it; if the Italians/Axis recover Libyan ground (Cyrenaica), uptime oil infrastructure miraculously appears. If it is freshly bombed downtime though, it stays damaged unless given a downtime fix. Also, the 1960s versions of Sicily's Ragusa and Gela oilfields are ISOT back to December 10th, 1941. So is the largest current oilfield in Europe west of Russia, the Patos-Marinza of Albania.

The Daqing (Manchuria), Liaohe (Manchuria), and Shengli (Shandong) top three historical oilfield of the PRC are ISOTed from the beginning of their peak production years and also ISOTed back to December 10, 1941.

All the oilfields, wells, rigs, ancillary modern pumping and storage and transport equipment onsite and links to external infrastructure and onsite offices and manuals and control machinery, and individual worker equipment usually left onsite go back with the oilfields. No personnel go back however.

The Axis powers have a windfall of oil supplies they didn't have in OTL, they have equipment and facilities they don't exactly know firsthand how to maintain, but they can tell it's important and they can try to figure out things from common sense, instructions, and trial and error.

How is their POL and overall logistic and operational situation affected for 1942 and the rest of the war?

 

[Buba]

Skip Cyrenaica - the oilfields south of Tripolitania are enough
Most of Libya's refining capacity is in Tripolitania anyway.
Las Anuf and Zawiya. 330k barrels per day (which means fuck all to me - what's that in tons per year?).
Naturally, getting it up and running will take weeks if not months - boring stuff like "fly in oilfield workers to Libya, follow pipeline to oilefield, start producing, pump stuff to coast, start refining ... "

Hmm - maybe skip Libya altogether - besides other practical considerations, there simply might not be enough skilled people to get it running inside years. Everybody with mild knowledge about oil extraction and refining gets thrown at sent to European mainland facilities.

Worship of Aryan Gods - however we understand them - intensifies.

The III Reich lasts 6-12 months longer.

 

[ATP]

Skip Cyrenaica - the oilfields south of Tripolitania are enough
Most of Libya's refining capacity is in Tripolitania anyway.
Las Anuf and Zawiya. 330k barrels per day (which means fuck all to me - what's that in tons per year?).
Naturally, getting it up and running will take weeks if not months - boring stuff like "fly in oilfield workers to Libya, follow pipeline to oilefield, start producing, pump stuff to coast, start refining ... "

Hmm - maybe skip Libya altogether - besides other practical considerations, there simply might not be enough skilled people to get it running inside years. Everybody with mild knowledge about oil extraction and refining gets thrown at sent to European mainland facilities.

Worship of Aryan Gods - however we understand them - intensifies.

The III Reich lasts 6-12 months longer.

It would not change facts,that USA have A bombs in 1945.Unless ROB made japaneese and german reactors from future appear,too,then war would last maybe 3 month longer - USA wasted on soviet Lend-Lease as much money as 5 Manchattan projects,so they could pour half of it there instead.And/or B.29 - they could build up to 10.000 of those instead.

 

[Buba]

It would not change facts,that USA have A bombs in 1945.

Good point - come VIII.45 Berlin gets nuked

USA wasted on soviet Lend-Lease as much money as 5 Manchattan projects,so they could pour half of it there instead.And/or B.29 - they could build up to 10.000 of those instead.

The B29 project cost more than the A-bomb. Now THAT was a waste of money. And you'd want to build 10k of them?!?

 

[ATP]

Good point - come VIII.45 Berlin gets nuked

The B29 project cost more than the A-bomb. Now THAT was a waste of money. And you'd want to build 10k of them?!?

You are right,for taking down both Germany and Japan 2000 would be enough.Relatively Few german fighters and almost none in Japan could schoot them.

 

[raharris1973]

Umm guys, both sides need to fight the war chronologically forward from December 1941 onward. They both, especially the Allies, have to live through 1942, 1943, 1944 and early 1945. They have to solve immediate problems like keeping a Soviet front going, winning the Battle of the Atlantic, holding the North Africa front, and containing the explosive Japanese advance. The Allies get no magical predictive powers about atomic bombs and long-range bombers being an *instant win* button, and in any case, enemy air defenses need to be decimated in order for B-29s to reliably hit inland enemy cities.

 

[ATP]

Umm guys, both sides need to fight the war chronologically forward from December 1941 onward. They both, especially the Allies, have to live through 1942, 1943, 1944 and early 1945. They have to solve immediate problems like keeping a Soviet front going, winning the Battle of the Atlantic, holding the North Africa front, and containing the explosive Japanese advance. The Allies get no magical predictive powers about atomic bombs and long-range bombers being an *instant win* button, and in any case, enemy air defenses need to be decimated in order for B-29s to reliably hit inland enemy cities.

1.Soviets would hold thanks to german genocidar stupidity,only difference is that they would advance slower,or maybe not at all.
But as long as german continue genociding them,nothing change.

2.Battle of Atlantic germans lost thanks to both their own stupidity and poles cracking Enigma code.Nothing change there,too.

3.Rommel with more fuel could take Egypt,but that would be all.Axis forces could support max 12 dyvisions there,so he would not achieve anything bigger.

4.Japan could take either part of Australia or part of India,which would change nothing.

So,considering that USA have prototype A bomb in 1944,nothing change - and if they send less Lend-Lease soviets,they could made more A bombs.

 

[Buba]

What @ATP said, more or less.
XII.41 is too late for that oil to make a difference. Before it percolates through the system months - and in some cases years - will have to pass.
So, no gasoline shortages? We do not have to cut back on trucks and driver training? Yipee! Hermann von und zu Logistiks does Happy!Dance exclaiming Heil Hitler! every three steps. He then orders trucks from factories - which start arriving half a year or so from order date. Expanding driver training programmes - takes similar time. In the case of pilots - that's years. A surge of new pilots with many flying hours will come in ... '43. Very late '43. Earliest. It takes 18-24 months to train a pilot who will not be killed - or kill himself - inside a week of arriving at his unit.
Nevertheless existing units will feel the bounty in the summer of '42. Better trained truck/tank drivers, rookie pilots with more flying hours - that's the 2nd half of the year. Motorisation will pick up in late '42. But larger effects - that's '43 and '44.
The Regia Marina will be able to run amok in the Med starting January 1942, though

In the Pacific the changes will be earlier and possibly more profound, as IJN operations were fuel limited from more or less the start. Getting Yamato to Gudalcanal would had used fuel enough to keep the Tokio Express going for months. Something like that, the numbers are on the Nihon Kaigun site. Here, fuel is no longer a concern.

All this oil/refining capacity appearing in XII.1940 would had been much more impactful, not to mention XII.39.

Is my middle name Killjoy? Maybe

 

[raharris1973]

1.Soviets would hold thanks to german genocidar stupidity,only difference is that they would advance slower,or maybe not at all.
But as long as german continue genociding them,nothing change.

2.Battle of Atlantic germans lost thanks to both their own stupidity and poles cracking Enigma code.Nothing change there,too.

3.Rommel with more fuel could take Egypt,but that would be all.Axis forces could support max 12 dyvisions there,so he would not achieve anything bigger.

4.Japan could take either part of Australia or part of India,which would change nothing.

So,considering that USA have prototype A bomb in 1944,nothing change - and if they send less Lend-Lease soviets,they could made more A bombs.

Why would the Western Allies be sending any less Lend-Lease to the Soviets? They need it just as much as OTL, if not more and possibly a little more is being sunk on the way, and it takes a little longer to develop some shorter routes that came from clearing the Med, so efficiency of delivery isn't any better. It's not like in Jan 1942 the WAllies will think, let's plan for stalemate for 3 or 4 years and hope this atomic bomb thing solves everything.

 

[ATP]

Why would the Western Allies be sending any less Lend-Lease to the Soviets? They need it just as much as OTL, if not more and possibly a little more is being sunk on the way, and it takes a little longer to develop some shorter routes that came from clearing the Med, so efficiency of delivery isn't any better. It's not like in Jan 1942 the WAllies will think, let's plan for stalemate for 3 or 4 years and hope this atomic bomb thing solves everything.

Becouse soviet would be on defensive,and they need less to defend then attacking.To be honest,Zukow style attacks killed more soviets then anything else.