ASB scenario: WI January 1973 Cuba is ISOT'ed to 1873 and invades the United States?

[raharris1973]

What if 1973 Castroite Cuba is ISOT'ed to January 1873 and is seized by a single-minded desire to invade and puppetize as much of the United States as possible.

How much can the Cubans achieve with their 20th century technology and ideology, much less sustain themselves domestically and internationally?

How will Americans, nationally and locally in the south where the Cuban invasion would most likely hit, respond to the Cuban invasion?

The 1973 Cubans have jet aircraft, armor, modern artillery, machine-guns, helicopters, radio, etc. But, they have experience operating in third world environments like the Congo and soon would demonstrate an ability to do so again in Angola. By 1973 standards, the US of 1873 would be a third world environment.

They also are expert propagandists and have models for setting up political organizations. What the Cubans don't have is unlimited fuel supplies and spares. Not sure about their food self-sufficiency/non self-sufficiency situation in 1973. At the same time, they wouldn't need to use their high tech gear full-time continuously but at key points in time against an enemy who can't compete.

At the same time, and this is pretty important, Cuba's external supply chains and trade links with the Soviet bloc and non-aligned 20th century world are broken.

In the US, you had the just reelected Grant Administration in control, political violence was simmering against Reconstruction governments, some southern states were under reconstruction governments, some were under 'Redeemers'. The KKK organization itself had been suppressed, prosecuted, and scattered. Federal troops remained in the south.

The US was a demobilized, low tech country, but spacious, with a large population. The southern US would have a decent portion of regular army forces (another big share would be on the frontiers) present and most men, white and black, would have military experience.

How does this play out?

 

[Atarlost]

My gut says that Cuba simply doesn't have the infrastructure to do much. All that advanced technology needs oil, which Cuba lacks and lacks the ability to drill and refine if they were to capture the future oil fields of Texas or Venezuela. They have neither large sailing ships nor anyone competent to crew them if they take them as prizes so they can't even sustain an offensive using non-motorized equipment. There are no radios to receive their propaganda broadcasts and no friendly international press to carry Communist propaganda.

Neither the reconstructionists nor the KKK want Communism. Some of the freed slaves might be convinced if Castro could get his message to them, but most want to own stuff since not being able to own stuff is one of the marks of a chattel slave. Castro is more likely to become a common ideological enemy to unite against than to divide and conquer since unless he uses his very limited aviation gas to drop leaflets he can't propagandize directly.

Unless Cuba is nutritionally independent even after cutting any imports in its fuel and fertilizer supply chains it's on a very short timer. Also, Spain still thinks Cuba is its colony and if Britain thinks Castro is acting Napoleonic they may take an interest.

I don't see anything Castro can do except try to sweep Communism under the rug and try to become an internationally acceptable monarchy so he can sell advanced tech to get the capital to downtech to something sustainable. And since he needs to deal with his own party and anti-Communist dissidents while letting the boot off enough that the US and Europe consider Cuba an acceptable investment I expect this doesn't end well for him personally.

 

[bintananth]

They'd lose.

Invading the Continental US is about as difficult as invading Russia (if not vastly more so*) and the 1973 Cubans would run out of supplies before they got very far at which point the Federals would just roll them up and say "thank you" for all the nice futuristic goodies.

NYC to LA is 2,446 miles by airplane. London to Moscow is only 1,554 miles by airplane.

* You're invading by sea if you don't have Canada or Mexico on your side.

 

[Buba]

I voted "commie Cubans kicked out".
Castros' Cuba was a cargo cult (now it is a brothel economy, so it is back to 1950 ... ), hence after early victories everything stops working working due to lack of spare parts and/or ammunition or fuel.
@bintananth has a good point about needing something more than the yacht Gramma&friends to carry out and sustain an invasion - so, Operacion Leon del Mar?


BTW - British imperialists will extend fratenal assistance to their brothers in capital.

 

[ATP]

Yers.They had no oil and no technology to drill it.Theorically they could built steam engines,but,...i doubt their engineers could do so.
So - they try and failed,and how it change history? USA have AK47,trucks,tanks now and some crashed planes.
USA as superpower from 1880 ?

 

[stevep]

My gut says that Cuba simply doesn't have the infrastructure to do much. All that advanced technology needs oil, which Cuba lacks and lacks the ability to drill and refine if they were to capture the future oil fields of Texas or Venezuela. They have neither large sailing ships nor anyone competent to crew them if they take them as prizes so they can't even sustain an offensive using non-motorized equipment. There are no radios to receive their propaganda broadcasts and no friendly international press to carry Communist propaganda.

Neither the reconstructionists nor the KKK want Communism. Some of the freed slaves might be convinced if Castro could get his message to them, but most want to own stuff since not being able to own stuff is one of the marks of a chattel slave. Castro is more likely to become a common ideological enemy to unite against than to divide and conquer since unless he uses his very limited aviation gas to drop leaflets he can't propagandize directly.

Unless Cuba is nutritionally independent even after cutting any imports in its fuel and fertilizer supply chains it's on a very short timer. Also, Spain still thinks Cuba is its colony and if Britain thinks Castro is acting Napoleonic they may take an interest.

I don't see anything Castro can do except try to sweep Communism under the rug and try to become an internationally acceptable monarchy so he can sell advanced tech to get the capital to downtech to something sustainable. And since he needs to deal with his own party and anti-Communist dissidents while letting the boot off enough that the US and Europe consider Cuba an acceptable investment I expect this doesn't end well for him personally.

In general agreement but wonder if we moved the US back say 20 years to ~1853? That means both its less developed and still have slavery. That both gives a significant element in the territories close to Cuba that would be eager for 'liberation' and also a political reason for a war with the US that would win some sympathy from much of the 'developed' 19thC world and quite possibly a number of people in the US, at least until it comes to land for the freed slaves coming from the US.

Thinking here that IF Castro had the brains when he finds Cuba back in the 1850's to play down the communist aspects of his ideas, especially since its not long after the 1848 revolutions in much of Europe, but states he's the leader of an independent Cuba from the future. Saying that since his people find slavery repugnant the US must end slavery but that Cuba would give them some assistance - working on the assumption I can see no way that the south at least would tolerate that and probably most of the north would also object to a foreign power intervening.

In terms of technology I can't see them maintaining any high tech stuff for any length of time apart from possibly some fairly simple mechanical stuff but I'm not sure they would need to. Something like the AK-47 if it can be constructed and ammo provided would massively outclass anything down-timers could produce or a simple bolt action rifle from ~1900? The latter would also fairly easily out-range any US artillery while any light artillery which could be pulled by horses/mules would give them a really big edge. Or even mortars which are very simple to manufacture. The difficulty here would probably be producing the explosives but if they can do that then their going to have a huge advantage over any down-time forces. Similarly with even basic radios to enable much better co-ordination.

The more advances stuff such as a/c and armoured vehicles would probably be more trouble than their worth given the impossibility of fueling and maintaining them. You would need to reserve oil for domestic use and also possibly for transport as long as possible. In the longer run a move back to sail and steam for sea transport and energy production would be needed but it might be able to trade for suitable materials.

One huge advantage Cuba would have is its medical knowledge. Even if it can't produce simple antibiotics other basic treatments, access to vaccines for polio and other such illnesses and knowledge of how to defend against malaria, yellow fever and many other such diseases would give it and areas that come under its control a huge boost in terms of survivability, both in combat and civilian life. It would have up-time knowledge about world resources and the like that it could also sell for resources - keeping back some for itself of course.

Food could well be an issue although if its at war quickly and gains a chunk of the US south there is a lot of fertile land there while a lot of fish in the sea at this time and while its motor vessels work they would be a lot more efficient at hauling them up.

Of course Castro being Castro his desire for control is likely to screw things over at some point or another. However its definitely an interesting idea.

 

[Atarlost]

The crippling problem for Cuba is the technology that it has lost, specifically large sailing ships. You can't supply an invasion with yachts and small fishing boats and even if they can take sailing ships by boarding they don't have anyone who knows how to operate them. It doesn't matter if they can make assault rifles or cartridges for them if they can't get them to the mainland in useful numbers. And I have my doubts they have all the chemical industry to support smokeless powder or percussion caps. It's possible, but I wouldn't assume it without evidence. They almost certainly can't produce mercury fulminate primers beyond their reserves because they seem to lack mercury.

And you can't resupply in the field when you use intermediate caliber brass cartridges with smokeless powder and fully jacketed spitzer bullets and the people you're invading use unjacketed lead ball with loose powder and separate percussion caps or at the most advanced differently sized cartridges filled with black powder. The Cubans can't even reload their spent brass from local sources because they're using gas operated guns and the percussion caps are the wrong size to use as primers.

I'm not sure there's any point in time where this works out for Cuba. Too early and the technology to support their population doesn't exist at all. Too late and they get lumped in with the craziest of the French revolution's crazies and nobody will want to deal with them. Communists can be lumped in with the Levelers. Even the Revolutionary French in full Terror mode thought the Levelers were dangerous extremists. Far enough for the memories of the French Wars of Revolution to fade they start to have to worry about being vulnerable to gunboat diplomacy without a proper navy of their own.

Even if to Fidel Castro Communism is just a means to an end that he can abandon without any qualms he has to deal with all of the other Communists as well as anyone who might want to use his history to turn the world against him for their own ends.

 

[Buba]

IIRC I read somewhere that the smallest calibre possible with gunpowder was 11mm or so.
Gunpowder is weaker than smokeless (which is 12-15 years into the future) and produces awful fouling - so forget any repurposing of XXth c. weapons. Maybe besides mortars.
Captured ship crews will be terrorised to sail them, i.e. enslaved For The Greater Good etc.

USA have AK47,trucks,tanks now and some crashed planes.
USA as superpower from 1880 ?

Out of the question. The USA does not have the industry to replicate those weapons/equipment.
Actually no country has such capability, although France, followed by the UK and Germany would be closest, a long way ahead of the USA. Good luck with replicating the tools and alloys to make forged receivers for the AK-47s, for instance.
Decades into the future ... even the milled ones, I'd venture.
Some of the 1960s (and earlier) stuff the Cubans have will serve as proof of concept and/or source of ideas to the Downtimers, with some venues pursued in OTL skipped or avoided altogether.

 

[ATP]

IIRC I read somewhere that the smallest calibre possible with gunpowder was 11mm or so.
Gunpowder is weaker than smokeless (which is 12-15 years into the future) and produces awful fouling - so forget any repurposing of XXth c. weapons. Maybe besides mortars.
Captured ship crews will be terrorised to sail them, i.e. enslaved For The Greater Good etc.

Out of the question. The USA does not have the industry to replicate those weapons/equipment.
Actually no country has such capability, although France, followed by the UK and Germany would be closest, a long way ahead of the USA. Good luck with replicating the tools and alloys to make forged receivers for the AK-47s, for instance.
Decades into the future ... even the milled ones, I'd venture.
Some of the 1960s (and earlier) stuff the Cubans have will serve as proof of concept and/or source of ideas to the Downtimers, with some venues pursued in OTL skipped or avoided altogether.

Wait,some Taliban smoths manage to made AK 47 working copies.So,it could not be that hard.And i read about yakuza hiring smiths from Philippines for that same goal.

 

[Buba]

Wait,some Taliban smiths manage to made AK 47 working copies.So,it could not be that hard.

You are thinking of so-called Khyber Pass copies. These gunsmiths have access to modern materials and some tooling. Modern steel files, for example.
But the discussion is moot - as pointed out by @Atarlost - ammunition is beyond Cuba's (and for some time anybody's, really) capacity to make.

 

[bintananth]

IIRC I read somewhere that the smallest calibre possible with gunpowder was 11mm or so.

Black powder is a mixture of potassium nitrate, sulfur, and charcoal. Do it right and a controlled gunpowder fire can get something into outer space on a suborbital ballistic trajectory.

Do it wrong and there won't be enough of you or anyone nearby left for proper funerals.

 

[ATP]

Black powder is a mixture of potassium nitrate, sulfur, and charcoal. Do it right and a controlled gunpowder fire can get something into outer space on a suborbital ballistic trajectory.

Do it wrong and there won't be enough of you or anyone nearby left for proper funerals.

I read,that one of scottish kings ended that way,after personally firing new gun.

 

[Buba]

I read,that one of scottish kings ended that way,after personally firing new gun.

James II

Supposedly to impress his wife. He died not knowing if she thought it cool or not.

 

[ATP]

James II

Supposedly to impress his wife. He died not knowing if she thought it cool or not.

Well,i am certainly impressed.It remind me how in Czech cosplaing as knights become illegal/dunno if it still is/ - during some meeting they charged gun and leave to drink beer.Some children added pebbles and fled.
Then,when they fired,one person died.

 

[bintananth]

Well,i am certainly impressed.It remind me how in Czech cosplaing as knights become illegal/dunno if it still is/ - during some meeting they charged gun and leave to drink beer.Some children added pebbles and fled.
Then,when they fired,one person died.

One of my sisters has a story of an orchestra wanting to do the 1812 Overture, indoors, with actual cannons. Fire marshal said "NOPE!" after basically seeing this:

 

[Atarlost]

IIRC I read somewhere that the smallest calibre possible with gunpowder was 11mm or so.

This is untrue. British .303 started out as a black powder cartridge as did .22 rimfire. The former was a military rifle cartridge and I think we can trust the 19th century Royal Army to not adopt a useless rifle.

 

[stevep]

The crippling problem for Cuba is the technology that it has lost, specifically large sailing ships. You can't supply an invasion with yachts and small fishing boats and even if they can take sailing ships by boarding they don't have anyone who knows how to operate them. It doesn't matter if they can make assault rifles or cartridges for them if they can't get them to the mainland in useful numbers. And I have my doubts they have all the chemical industry to support smokeless powder or percussion caps. It's possible, but I wouldn't assume it without evidence. They almost certainly can't produce mercury fulminate primers beyond their reserves because they seem to lack mercury.

And you can't resupply in the field when you use intermediate caliber brass cartridges with smokeless powder and fully jacketed spitzer bullets and the people you're invading use unjacketed lead ball with loose powder and separate percussion caps or at the most advanced differently sized cartridges filled with black powder. The Cubans can't even reload their spent brass from local sources because they're using gas operated guns and the percussion caps are the wrong size to use as primers.

I'm not sure there's any point in time where this works out for Cuba. Too early and the technology to support their population doesn't exist at all. Too late and they get lumped in with the craziest of the French revolution's crazies and nobody will want to deal with them. Communists can be lumped in with the Levelers. Even the Revolutionary French in full Terror mode thought the Levelers were dangerous extremists. Far enough for the memories of the French Wars of Revolution to fade they start to have to worry about being vulnerable to gunboat diplomacy without a proper navy of their own.

Even if to Fidel Castro Communism is just a means to an end that he can abandon without any qualms he has to deal with all of the other Communists as well as anyone who might want to use his history to turn the world against him for their own ends.

Ah I wasn't sure of the technology for modern munitions powder production.

Not sure that 1973 Cuba wouldn't be too far advanced for some knowledge of sailing. Or that they couldn't make some deal with downtimers, hiring ships and crews in return for some resources but the lack of the ability to replace munitions would be a killer.

 

[Atarlost]

Ah I wasn't sure of the technology for modern munitions powder production.

Not sure that 1973 Cuba wouldn't be too far advanced for some knowledge of sailing. Or that they couldn't make some deal with downtimers, hiring ships and crews in return for some resources but the lack of the ability to replace munitions would be a killer.

There's sailing and sailing. They need proper ships to supply an invasion and that's a whole different kettle of fish from sailing boats. Revolutionary Communism doesn't have time for living history that can't be used for propaganda. And I hold that the naval ratings selected first for political loyalty will not be able to avoid trying to spread it and that will spook the downtimers.

This may matter less than I thought as I must correct my assumption that Cuba is not an oil producer in 1973. This improves its situation dramatically. It is still ultimately crippled by its reliance on imported mercury for percussion primers unless someone with the influence to get things done is somehow aware of an alternative, but it can operate its air force and navy subject to spare parts restrictions rather than fuel restrictions. It may also have freighters in port, though I don't know if it would have the sort of small freighters that can be used militarily or if it would by 1973 be served by container ships that require dockside infrastructure available nowhere else in the world after temporal displacement.

This does, however, dramatically change my assessment of Cuba sent back to earlier centuries. Since they have oil they have a chance of maintaining enough technology to run their farms and produce pharmaceuticals. This may well let them forestall economic collapse if they are sent back to earlier centuries.

I still don't think Cuba has a chance of conquest at the original date. I don't think they can take on an Europe in a Castro=Bonaparte panic and if they actually look like they're succeeding in conquering the US I think that's what will happen.