AHC: Any time after 1853, build a realistic path to US-Japanese war, not involving European colonial territories

[raharris1973]

Here's the challenge, any time after 1853, build a realistic path to a US-Japanese war, and have that war not involve European colonial territories as a point of US-Japanese contention prior to the war (like the occupation of French Indochina was), a vital Japanese objective during the war (like the Dutch East Indies were, or a battlefield during the war (like the Solomon Islands, Tarawa and Burma were)/

While I am at it, I will use this opportunity to tack on additional challenges.

Any time after 1853, build a realistic path to: (1) a Japanese-British war, that ends up not involving any of France, the Netherlands, or United States as a belligerent, (2) a Japanese-French war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, the Netherlands, or United States as a belligerent, (3) a Japanese-Dutch war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, France, or the United States as a belligerent, (4) a Japanese-Portuguese war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, France, Netherlands or the US as a belligerent, or (5) a Japanese-Siamese (or Thai) war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, France, Netherlands or the US as a belligerent.

 

[WolfBear]

Here's the challenge, any time after 1853, build a realistic path to a US-Japanese war, and have that war not involve European colonial territories as a point of US-Japanese contention prior to the war (like the occupation of French Indochina was), a vital Japanese objective during the war (like the Dutch East Indies were, or a battlefield during the war (like the Solomon Islands, Tarawa and Burma were)/

Maybe some sort of issue emerges over protecting Hawaii's ethnic Japanese population if Hawaii remains an independent republic but also one that's solidly backed by the US? Just an idea, of course.

 

[stevep]

Here's the challenge, any time after 1853, build a realistic path to a US-Japanese war, and have that war not involve European colonial territories as a point of US-Japanese contention prior to the war (like the occupation of French Indochina was), a vital Japanese objective during the war (like the Dutch East Indies were, or a battlefield during the war (like the Solomon Islands, Tarawa and Burma were)/

While I am at it, I will use this opportunity to tack on additional challenges.

Any time after 1853, build a realistic path to: (1) a Japanese-British war, that ends up not involving any of France, the Netherlands, or United States as a belligerent, (2) a Japanese-French war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, the Netherlands, or United States as a belligerent, (3) a Japanese-Dutch war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, France, or the United States as a belligerent, (4) a Japanese-Portuguese war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, France, Netherlands or the US as a belligerent, or (5) a Japanese-Siamese (or Thai) war, that ends up not involving any of Britain, France, Netherlands or the US as a belligerent.

raharris1973

Actually when the American planters organised the coup and overthrew the monarchy it caused some tensions, especially since there were a sizeable population of Japanese workers already on the islands and Japan had close relations with Hawaii.

There was a short discussion on another site, see japanese-american-1897-hawai-crisis for how there was some tension a bit later in 1897 which could have led to a war. Or as it mentions in the initial post there when the coup occurred in 1893 the Hawaiian army, small but quite well equipped didn't oppose it because there was a US warship in the harbour and they thought it was supporting the coup. If that ship hadn't been there, or didn't have orders to support the coup if there was a fight you could see conflict which since it would likely result in Japanese casualties could prompt a Japanese reaction and then a US response.

In the early period after the 'opening' of Japan in the 1850's there was a lot of turbulence and several clans clashed with assorted western powers. One I know about was the Namamugi_Incident, which saw a clash between the Satsuma Domain and elements of the RN. I think there were other incidents with other western powers and its possible that any of those could have become a more general war.

Its more difficult to see, post 1853 anyway, a conflict with Portugal as it has no real territories north of Macao or with Thailand. However its possible that some clash with the Dutch or French could similarly occur.

Steve

 

[raharris1973]

Maybe some sort of issue emerges over protecting Hawaii's ethnic Japanese population if Hawaii remains an independent republic but also one that's solidly backed by the US? Just an idea, of course.

I guess my question would be, what is Japan's plan for an endgame here? I guess they've got some matters of honor and prestige at stake, but ultimately, the Japanese were present in Hawaii earning wages and remittances to send home to Japan, working on sugar plantations in Hawaii, sugar plantations, and pineapple plantation, owned and financed by American capitalists, who were likely pretty much aligned with the Dole family and other American expats who supported the republic that overthrew the monarchy. And these plantations that provided the income for the Japanese workers that flowed back to Japan's economy were geared toward export to the American market. I'm not sure, but I think by the 1890s Hawaii might have enjoyed a tariff reciprocity treaty with the US. If Japan in any way opposes these interlocking American political-economic interests, it's just killed the golden goose and the capital and market connections for Hawaii, and all the jobs for the Japanese evaporate, unless the Japanese somehow hatch a new golden goose, and I don't really know about their economic capacity to be an economic dairy hen by the 1890s.

 

[WolfBear]

I guess my question would be, what is Japan's plan for an endgame here? I guess they've got some matters of honor and prestige at stake, but ultimately, the Japanese were present in Hawaii earning wages and remittances to send home to Japan, working on sugar plantations in Hawaii, sugar plantations, and pineapple plantation, owned and financed by American capitalists, who were likely pretty much aligned with the Dole family and other American expats who supported the republic that overthrew the monarchy. And these plantations that provided the income for the Japanese workers that flowed back to Japan's economy were geared toward export to the American market. I'm not sure, but I think by the 1890s Hawaii might have enjoyed a tariff reciprocity treaty with the US. If Japan in any way opposes these interlocking American political-economic interests, it's just killed the golden goose and the capital and market connections for Hawaii, and all the jobs for the Japanese evaporate, unless the Japanese somehow hatch a new golden goose, and I don't really know about their economic capacity to be an economic dairy hen by the 1890s.

Maybe decide to have the Republic of Hawaii somehow become extremely Japanese-phobic and Japan would thus decide to wage this war in an attempt to end anti-Japanese discrimination in Hawaii? Or something like that?