Afghanistan over the last 20+ years without 9/11 or a comparable similar large-scale terrorist attack on the US?
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
If Ahmed Shah Massoud had lived, and he was assassinated just before September 11 iirc with some people linking the two events, Afghanistan might have turned into yet another battleground between the Iranians and the Arabs, probably with Russia moving in to aid the pro-Iran forces.
China is Pakistan's ally/overlord, but I think they might torpedo that relationship since the Pakistanis and the Taliban are both bonkers, and that would let them seek reapproachment with India.
An alliance with Iran and an Iranian-controlled afghanistsn gives them a path to the resources in.the area and a corridor. All the day to Iran's oil and the Persian gulf.
China is Pakistan's ally/overlord, but I think they might torpedo that relationship since the Pakistanis and the Taliban are both bonkers, and that would let them seek reapproachment with India.
An alliance with Iran and an Iranian-controlled afghanistsn gives them a path to the resources in.the area and a corridor. All the day to Iran's oil and the Persian gulf.
raharris1973
Well-known member
Regardless of the siphoning off from corruption, there would have been less wealth going into the country. Had the conditions of the early 2001 Taliban rule continued, well, it wasn’t quite Khmer Rouge or anything, but it was below sub-Saharan African standards for infant and childhood mortality.
there would have been fewer teen and young adult Afghans around or with knowledge of or connection to the west to seek asylum by about the 2019-2020 timeframe.
there would have been fewer teen and young adult Afghans around or with knowledge of or connection to the west to seek asylum by about the 2019-2020 timeframe.
That's an excellent point, actually! Specifically, that many of the Afghans who are currently alive would very likely already be dead right now had Taliban rule continued after 2001 due to healthcare, et cetera being much worse for Afghans in such a scenario relative to real life. This in itself makes the US intervention in Afghanistan worth it if not anything else.
Chiron
Well-known member
Well, the Taliban politely thank Osama for killing Ahmad Shah Massoud and his other help, and then politely tell him that he has worn out his welcome, and should leave in honor a year after Massoud's death.
The Taliban and Al-Qaeda have diametrically different world views and incompatible religious doctrines. The Taliban tolerated OBL as long as they did because he was providing shock troops against the Northern Alliance and helping to rebuild the nation. So in 2002, OBL goes to Pakistan and later to Iraq.
The US still invades Iraq as that was already in the works when Bush entered office. 9/11 and the Enron Scandal delayed things as Bush felt the blind need for revenge instead of a far cheaper and more effective solution, and Enron would have been the primary contractor for Iraq's energy sector to avoid the appearance of impropriety if Halliburton was. Its why the Enron Meetings with Cheney are still under wraps for the most part. OBL winds up making that his new place of business.
But as for Afghanistan. The Taliban begin the process of encircling the Panjshir Valley via methodical advances backed by a trickle of support from Pakistan. The Northern Alliance is slowly ground down and the Iranians resort to air drops as the NA loses airfields. But once the Taliban takes Taluqan, Faizabad, and Parun, the NA is effectively finished.
By 2006, Afghanistan is firmly under Taliban control and is rebuilt in their image and neither a friend or enemy of anyone. Mullah Omar allows radios, but no smart phones, or TVs outside of trusted security services. Its military consists of a relatively hi-tech air arm and a ragged Army with little uniformity and wielding AKs with worn out barrels (smoothbores basically).
There is no population boom at least for a while, and selective pressure results in women with the best child bearing attributes and disease resistance surviving to pass on their genes as largely untrained midwives take over child birth procedures. Without the need to hide, Mullah Omar stays living to present day assuming no other issues and no major changes occur as he ensures only those 100% committed to his vision get any power.
City wise, their is no skyscraper buildings at least not as we think of them. Instead their will be more midrise buildings in the 5 to 15 storey range made of concrete. Farming will be slowly mechanized, but largely remain as it had been for centuries.
Any real change will be 2 to 3 generations in coming and only after thorough vetting and control by the Ulema. Female literacy will largely be non-existent, and female participation in the economy will be relegated to farm work, a few female medical personnel, and a few female police officers married to male police officers. Most women will be confined to unpaid domestic work in homes.
Not sure about that; it might depend on how much trouble OBL will cause for them.
Maybe; the Taliban were nationalists while AQ were internationalists, but IMHO it all depends on just how well they can get along after the Taliban's total victory over the NA. Still, I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of the Taliban coming to view al-Qaeda as a potential threat to their rule, similar to ISIS right now. Not impossible.
I don't think that the US Congress would have approved of a US declaration of war on Iraq without 9/11. And the Democrats controlled the US Senate since June 2001.
Makes sense. Also, no photography, art/drawings, cameras, or Internet, right?
So, basically theocratic Islamist eugenics?
Would such buildings be sturdy?
Yep, that makes sense, unfortunately.
Chiron
Well-known member
The Taliban never wanted OBL in the first place and ISI's original plan was for OBL to join the Northern Alliance which would be recognized as the Government of Afghanistan and be an ISI puppet. Then the Taliban captured Jalalabad and the Northern Alliance turned to Iran for support. There was much friction between AQ and the Taliban and they had several clashes. They simply had way too different doctrines and the Taliban tried turning him over to the Saudis and the US, only for their phone calls to not be answered. Also the US never bothered to learn the nuances of the Taliban and spoke through ISI which double crossed both the Taliban and the US all while laughing all the way to the bank.
ISI truly is the greatest Karma Houdini in all of this mess. They certainly don't need to worry about retirement funds considering how much they bilked the US and everyone else.
The Democrats were just as eager to go to war as the Republicans, Gore himself had a plan to depose Saddam. The US has a Uniparty of War, don't forget Obama expanded the War on Terror and bombed more countries than any other president and tortured more people while silencing more whistleblowers.
Very limited use of all of these for legitimate purposes.
In practice, but not actual policy.
The oldest still operating skyscrapers are in Yemen. So yeah as long as they are properly maintained.
I thought that Pakistan wanted Hekmatyar to be their puppet?
FWIW, Al Gore was against the Iraq War, and he was the Democratic Party de facto leader in the early 2000s due to his extremely narrow and disputed 2000 loss to Bush.
Interesting. Anyway, I guess that this means that Afghans won't be able to use photography for recreational purposes in this scenario, eh? Not even right now, almost a decade after Mullah Omar's death?