A Polish-Ukrainian war over Lviv in the 1990s

[WolfBear]

What if, in the 1990s, Poland would have been taken over by ultranationalists who would have decided to invade Ukraine in order to reconquer Lviv for Poland?

Frankly, I suspect that in such a scenario, Ukraine would have asked Russia for military assistance, Poland would have gotten its butt kicked, Poland's NATO aspirations would have taken a significant hit, and pro-Western integration in Ukraine would have lost a part of its luster, perhaps even a large part of its luster.

Anyway, though, what do you think?

 

[PsihoKekec]

It's not necessary for country to fall to ultranationalist, it could be enough that they become big enough block in Sejm and Senate for established parties to start aping their policies in hopes of siphoning the voters, first turning a blind eye to cross border raids by nationalist militias and when Ukraine starts retaliating, they start escalating towards open conflict, as deescalating would mean showing weakness to the voters.

A initial Polish success depends a lot on how ramshackle the Ukrainian military is at the time of invasion, as otherwise Ukraine certainly has an edge in quality of the gear as they kept a lot of top of the line Soviet stuff, while Polish forces are equipped with Soviet era weapons good enough for allies/vassals. In most cases this difference is not that big, it's in air force force and air defense that it is most pronounced, so in theory the Ukrainian air force and air defense should be able to keep Polish air force at bay, while pushing it's own strikes, but lot depends on quality of pilots and Ukrainian pilots didn't get much flying hours in the 90's.

I reckon Belorussia, Russia and Lithuania would get very nervous about it, rendering some degree of support to Ukraine.

 

[WolfBear]

It's not necessary for country to fall to ultranationalist, it could be enough that they become big enough block in Sejm and Senate for established parties to start aping their policies in hopes of siphoning the voters, first turning a blind eye to cross border raids by nationalist militias and when Ukraine starts retaliating, they start escalating towards open conflict, as deescalating would mean showing weakness to the voters.

A initial Polish success depends a lot on how ramshackle the Ukrainian military is at the time of invasion, as otherwise Ukraine certainly has an edge in quality of the gear as they kept a lot of top of the line Soviet stuff, while Polish forces are equipped with Soviet era weapons good enough for allies/vassals. In most cases this difference is not that big, it's in air force force and air defense that it is most pronounced, so in theory the Ukrainian air force and air defense should be able to keep Polish air force at bay, while pushing it's own strikes, but lot depends on quality of pilots and Ukrainian pilots didn't get much flying hours in the 90's.

I reckon Belorussia, Russia and Lithuania would get very nervous about it, rendering some degree of support to Ukraine.

Good analysis.

And I think that the support that these countries will give to Ukraine will be very significant.

Also, you agree with me that this war will be a huge setback for Poland's Western integration ambitions and also make Western integration less appealing in Ukraine?

 

[PsihoKekec]

It depends on the outcome of the war. A clear Polish defeat would discredit the nationalists, so pro-EU politicians would come to power, but their war idiocy would delay their EU entrance by 5-10 years, in best case scenario they would enter EU with Romania and Bulgaria. Keep in mind that due to Poland being next door, Germany is very keen on having it in EU.

A frozen conflict though, could force status quo for a long time, turning Poland into European equivalent of North Korea. You would need ASB levels of changes to make it happen though, but then the premise itself is borderline ASB so... I think Poland remaining a permanent threat over Lvov would need support of either Germany or USA, or both.

I think that while Russian support would give a pro-Russian parties a boost, it would be a short lived one, as soon as Polish threat has diminished, the politics would resume it's East/West split.

 

[ATP]

What if, in the 1990s, Poland would have been taken over by ultranationalists who would have decided to invade Ukraine in order to reconquer Lviv for Poland?

Frankly, I suspect that in such a scenario, Ukraine would have asked Russia for military assistance, Poland would have gotten its butt kicked, Poland's NATO aspirations would have taken a significant hit, and pro-Western integration in Ukraine would have lost a part of its luster, perhaps even a large part of its luster.

Anyway, though, what do you think?

Lwów,not lwiw.It never was ukrainian city.

Not possible,Poland was ruled by commies which made deal with their agents and useful idiots in 1989,and it was blessed by USA and germans.Who would support such nationalists? martians?

But,if you want war...before soviet union collapsed,Gorbi suggested Poland taking Wilno back from lithuanians,he could do the same in case of Lwów.
Our commies would do so,if USA agree,becouse they started taking money from them,too.

So,for such scenario,you need :
1.Gorbi suggesting it to Poland with soviet state help
2.USA helping it.

In that case,Lwów would be polish again.And soviet union could last longer,with such success.