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Immediately? I doubt it. But permanently occupying a large industrialized country with a strong national identity contrary to yours just doesn't seem plausible. And I think permanently imposing disarmament takes too much sustained effort and will. As for the fleet, I agree it seems unlikely...

It's a little hard to swallow the premise, but I'm more interested in arguing about the medium term consequences. Without a four year death struggle to bond over would Britain really allow a Franco-Russian alliance to dominate the Germans? Or would the Brits pivot to allying with the same power...