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Good point about the Syrian Mamluks. [Haven't really read up on them for decades!]. They might still well be a substantial force in the region. Especially probably if they can still recruit new soldier slaves from the Caucasus region. I would still expect the Ottomans to win in the end...

I wasn't sure so I had to check, hence the wiki links. Also with the decline of the Timurid's. :) In those periods apparently powerful states could rise and fall very quickly. Especially on the death of a very powerful founder.

Actually by 1415 that crisis in the Ottoman empire was over, see Ottoman_Interregnum as the civil war ended in 1413. Its the Timurid's who suffered a civil war after Tamerlane's death in 1405. This ended in 1409 when his youngest son Shah_Rukh gained control of the bulk of the empire but that...

Some interesting ideas here. Not sure that Muslim slave operations in Africa would decline as the states in the north would be able to still raid up the Nile and down the east coast and as OTL probably deeper inland in the latter case. Also still going to be a trade across the Sahara, although...