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Bascially yes. If the allies land in N France in 43 and aren't decisively defeated - which is likely to be an issue - then their going to be facing a lot more of the German army for longer. Ditto with more of an effort in the Med. Very true. If not having colonial control challenged...

Very interesting idea and makes for a greatly different world. With Japan rebuffed in 1929-30 it could well develop as you suggest which coupled with the impact of the depression - to a degree continuing the impact of the western embargo. It's likely to rearm faster, especially if it kills off...