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Well, if the British are actually in Baku, say trying to help Whites against Reds, or prevent German takeover, and Ottoman Empire that is just trying to jackal easy meat from the Russian revolution obviously won't attack wherever those Brits are stationed. Whatever the ideal wish list of some...

Very thorough and sophisticated response. I would note that your prediction of the war's endgame does seem to position both the Ottomans and the Italians pretty well to be successful jackals in at the last act of the war, if they are ready to gamble. If Russia is brought low and to revolution...

Well, taking it to the next level. Can neutral Ottomans keep the straits closed to Entente cargo shipping without getting an Entente DoW in return? If not, how long till the Entente does its DoW? Can the Entente run massive cargo convoys through neutral Ottomans officially closed straits...

Would it for sure? Or would blocking the straits to belligerent traffic (either all cargo, or anything that can be regarded as 'war contraband'-again very elastic) just be one reasonable possible interpretation of Turkey's neutral duties under international treaties? In the months of the war...

They are going to do that even without the Ottomans in the war - simply to bail out the Austro-Hungarians.

I know the Germans sent arms, ammo, and officers to help, but were the Ottomans really all that much of a drain? I never got the impression they absorbed so many German or Austrian Divisions or Division equivalents or Corps. The #s of coalition units drawn in to aid the Austro-Hungarians and...

Well Scheldt shipping would have been relevant to the Entente during this battle: Siege_of_Antwerp_(1914). So warship, military traffic, banned on Sep 4, 1914, would have hampered the Entente in that fight, which continued until the Entente retreat and loss of Antwerp on October 10, 1914. I...

That means on September 27th 1914, the Ottomans closed the straits to Entente merchant shipping? That is while they were still neutral. They did not attack the Entente (with the Germans ships) until October 29th 1914, and did not declare war until November 4th 1914.

That's a good question about the Armenians. Another good question is about exactly how freely commercial traffic will flow through the straits during the war. We do have a sample period to consider, in August, September, and October 1914, the war was going on, but the Ottomans were still...

What would be the impact if *both* Italy and the Ottoman Empire remained neutral throughout all WWI? I'm of the view they both mattered and carried weight for their coalitions. Their absence would be felt.