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Probably not until the 1950s at the earliest even with maximal concentration on naval development. And by that point we cannot rule out either or both Japan or the PRC or both having nuclear weapons. The Japanese can try to fortify Korea if they have time, but the Chinese will be in a position...

Conquering any of Manchuria or really grabbing any land north of the Yalu river in China is going to be impossible for 1930 Japan to do against the October 1950 version of China, no matter how fast and aggressive the Japanese try to be. Remember, Japanese aggression even a year later in 1931-33...

Maybe - what would be the longer term consequences of all that?

You figure the 1950 Chinese Communist forces have the organization and cohesion, plus sufficient 1950 and WWII era Soviet weapons, plus stocks of WWII era American and Japanese weapons, and good positioning already in Manchuria, to surprise attack the 1930 Japanese in Korea and the Kwangtung...

Potentially, it is Japanese ousted, yayyyyyyy! Then, Communist government, booooh! Wait, nobody said booooooh around here, we salute our Comrade leader and the global proletariat! Yeah, the Chinese at this time don't have real mass production capability for most of these WWII weapons systems...

What if the PRC from 1 October, 1950, is ISOT'ed back 20 years to 1 October, 1930? This is the entire territory sovereignly controlled by the PRC, so the only exceptions are the remaining foreign leasehold territories, which in 1950 were the Portuguese leased Macau, British leased Hong Kong...