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The TLDR, final result of the scenario I am proposing, is that there is no Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878, and thus no Treaty of San Stefano, nor Treaty of Berlin. The principal consequence of that for the map of Europe is that the Ottoman Empire keeps its borders of 1876, unchanged. This...

What if Tsar Alexander II's Russia gave a hard pass to the Russo-Turkish war of 1877? I can think of a couple reasons why Alexander II, and his minister Gorchakov, might stick to avoiding war with the Ottomans, despite the Bosnian and Bulgarian uprisings and their repressions,and the Serbian...