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I don't know if the Kansas-Nebraska Act would still happen if the US didn't acquire California beforehand. I'll let someone more knowledgeable, such as @History Learner, comment on that. And Yes, the US would obviously oppose any secession attempts by anyone regardless of who was in the White...

The USCW might not develop at all, or at least not develop on schedule, without the US conquering/acquiring California beforehand since a huge part of the dispute that led to the USCW was whether or not slavery should expand into the new western territories of the US.

I suspect that it would seek to join the US, though there is the possibility of them wanting to create their own country due to them not wanting to share their gold with the US. Still, eventually their gold is going to run out, so ... But the timing for a US intervention needs to be right if...

Well, I mean, they're not going to be able to reconquer Texas by force. They simply don't have the strength for this and, in any case, the US might not allow this. So, even if they refuse to deal immediately, it's only a matter of time until they change their minds. Clay can even tell them...

The whole light green territory Clay will likely agree to give to Mexico in exchange for Mexico recognizing the US's claim to the rest of Texas.

I suspect that Clay will aim for a Nueces River western border for Texas, thus leaving Mexico the space between the Nueces and the Rio Grande. As for the Mormons, they could theoretically become Mexicans, no? Similar to the Romney family later on? (George Romney was born in Mexico.) Or was...

In real life, the 1844 election was very closely fought, with James K. Polk only very narrowly beating Henry Clay (a small popular vote swing would have secured New York and the election to Clay): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1844_United_States_presidential_election What if Clay wins New York...