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So, maybe the Japanese would only move once they actually have written Anglo-American guarantees of protection, which for the reasons that you mentioned the Anglo-Americans might be loath to give to the Japanese?

If Russia and France will fight the Japanese, then the Anglo-Americans should help out the Japanese, no? And the British Navy was truly supreme back then, which should significantly help Japan. I think that the Boers would be more likely to attack a distracted Britain--as in, a Britain that is...

Interesting analysis. In such a scenario, Germany might not win in 1914 due to logistics, but it might succeed in bleeding the French dry at Verdun in 1916. Of course, that's all assuming that FF is still assassinated on schedule in 1914, which he might not be.

You think that Britain would stay neutral in any future European continental war if the German fleet is no longer a problem for it?