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  1. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/22/russia-ukraine-war-grain-exports-africa-asia/
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    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-23/in-ukraine-militias-prepare-for-potential-war-with-russia
  3. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Yeah, if expanding Russia's sphere of influence is perfectly acceptable, why exactly is it unacceptable for the West to do the same thing? Central and Western Ukraine were previously Polish and, in some cases, Austro-Hungarian, after all. Yeah, I do wonder if Russia's policies have always been...
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    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Then why not kick the Baltic countries out of NATO for the same reason?
  5. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Western Ukraine's history outside of Russian rule is considerably longer than its history under Russian rule.
  6. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    So that the Western sphere of influence would be larger. Wouldn't that mean that sponsoring an anti-Russian insurgency in Ukraine would be considerably less risky? BTW, the only winners in your scenario would be the Chinese, who will subsequently move into Siberia and the Russian Far East en...
  7. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Just like Hitler should have avoided invading Poland back in 1939? ;)
  8. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    You can also take a look at the polling on page 20 here: https://web.archive.org/web/20170822212837/http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2017-8-22_ukraine_poll_presentation.pdf Europe beats Eurasia 3:1, but there are some neutralists and a lot of people who are uncertain. So, Yeah...
  9. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    I think that Russia could have an easier time selling the idea of neutrality to Ukrainians under its occupation than it would selling the idea of Eurasian Economic Union membership. Based on the poll above, something like 20% (give or take a few %) of Ukrainians appear to support a neutralist...
  10. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Eurasian Union membership has also become much less popular in Ukraine by now. And Crimea and the Donbass have already exercised their right of national self-determination by leaving Ukraine, so I'm not sure why their opinions should actually count here...
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    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Support for integration with Russia would be much lower, most likely: https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1015&page=1
  12. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    Here are some questions about attitudes towards secession and federalization from Novorossiya (excluding Crimea, which was already annexed by Russia back then) from early 2014: http://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=news&id=258 Novorossiya (southern and eastern Ukraine) is, of course, the most...
  13. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    The blue areas don't want to be annexed either, other than perhaps Crimea and the Donbass. More prudent to turn the blue areas into a nominally neutralist Ukrainian state led by Yuri Boyko.
  14. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    The Afghanistan pullout was good since it put our troops out of harm's way. We gave the Afghans 20 years to prepare. If they couldn't fight the Taliban for even two weeks afterwards, then, well, us staying there for a longer time period was not going to make any difference.
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    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    The US will not send its own troops to fight in Ukraine. That I can guarantee you.
  16. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html Or is your country Canada? If so: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/canadian-foreign-minister-visit-ukraine-vows-deter-russian-aggression-2022-01-15/
  17. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    You might think that, but when Putin (ghost-)wrote a 5,000 word essay about the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians several months ago, then frankly, I'm not so sure about this.
  18. W

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

    I have now gotten some information about this from a German newspaper: https://www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/bild-exklusiv-russlands-kriegsplaene-so-koennte-putin-die-ukraine-vernichten-78425518.bild.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=scn First...
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