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North Korea and Cuba both survived up to the present-day without any civil wars. Here, the number of casualties might be considerably more than 15, though still nothing short of a civil war, IMHO. No, there were still plenty of Soviet Jews who wanted to leave for Israel and who hadn't yet done...

Ukraine would be highly unlikely to try seceding in this scenario because it certainly wouldn't want civil war and extreme bloodshed. It would know that the guys in power in Moscow are actually serious about keeping the Soviet Union together, after all. This isn't 2021, when Ukraine has already...