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The ultimate point of buffer states is for them to provide a defence for you. Not the other way around. Since none of them would want to be re-taken by Russia, that works out here. They'd also provide considerable economic profit to Germany, and they'd grant easy access to resources to Germany...

Well, you'd want something to show for your efforts, and a great big crescent of buffer states in the East sure is an attractive notion, wouldn't you say?

In the scenario that @sillygoose laid out, which I find convincing, the Entente basically folds, and Russia gets thrown to the wolves. By this stage, Germany knows it's going to in, so it can demand whatever it wants. Russia can either fold, or keep fighting until it loses anyway. That would be...

On the terms of purely Austria-Hungary, I'd say your analysis of the late-in-the-war realities has merit. I'm not sure this would hold up in a "no war" scenario, as you suggest as well, but let's put that aside. I do however think that, as @WolfBear mentioned, Germany would lend support in...

I think @sillygoose laid it out quite splendidly here. To the last paragraph, I would add the supporting consideration that the outcome of the war would vindicate anti-war and isolationist sentiments in the USA. This would presumably further reduce the overall likelihood of an ATL Cold War...