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I think the POD you went with is the more realistic one. A simple escalation that snowballs into a much bigger confrontation. That sort of thing just happens. The alternative POD is the more narratively compelling one. If you're writing a novel, rather than a history, that one would be the...

And the defeat of Germany in general. "Oh, look, they're not some huge, imposing threat after all." So when war breaks out on the continent, many will be expecting Franco-Russian victory anyway, and will simply care less about the outcome. "Let them fight it out, we'll stay in splendid...

An early 'match' between these powers would be a very interesting way to prevent future European wars from escalating into global wars. Having clearly won, any British anxiety over the awful-terrible-very-oh-so-threatening German fleet would be gone. Having lost utterly, I don't think any...