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Russia as an American ally would be "slightly bigger Turkey" in this scenario.

A dominant China with no fear of American retaliation would have force projection into Russia. Look at a map.

Interesting analysis of the gen. context behind France's decline: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/immigrants-didnt-destroy-france-the-welfare-state-did/

"Buncha randos w/ zero popular support even amongst the military try to overthrow the government because they want to keep fighting a forever war in the middle east while the rest of the country doesn't and fail pathetically as noone listens to them" isn't really anything that could be...