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1. Removal of internal political pressure to end the war so that the money from Germany can keep flowing in. 2. Justification for doubling-down on the war. 3. Sending a *message* to the Germans about the cost of disobeying Russia. 1. It was utterly politically unacceptable to not oppose Russia...

This is an incredibly arrogant thing for you to say. I don't agree with a lot of your takes, but usually you aren't this condescending towards others. It's particularly ironic given that the earlier part of your post just said you believe everyone around the situation are liars, but then you're...

Are you kidding? In a stare-down between Putin and Trump, there's no question who would blink first, and it wouldn't be the orange man.

Yes, an invasion that's killed tens of thousands is just 'reee Russia bad.' What would it take to convince you that Russia was actually doing something bad?

Russia is actively invading a neighbor unprovoked, did so 8 years ago, has invaded others since, and has made noises about invading others and/or going nuclear. There is no 'derangement' syndrome to this, Russia has proven itself to be a very real and very deadly threat.

I'm used to taking wood stacked by August as 'this year's/green wood,' and wood stacked by last august as 'dry wood.' That probably explains the discrepancy, given we generally didn't start burning until November, so grabbing from the wrong piles a few times meant that we had a few 3-6 month...

I suppose I'm just used to thinking of 'green' wood as 'what we put in the woodshed earlier this year' as opposed to 'what we put in the shed last year' then. Because I have never burned anything that caused anywhere near that much trouble. Also, proper ventilation for your chimney is still...

...What? Where are you digging this idea up from? Old wives tales? Bad ventilation is what can cause serious issues, not how green or dry the wood is.

For optimal efficiency. You can burn green wood, it's just not as efficient, and will kick out a lot more steam. At normal rates of expenditure perhaps. Their economy is going to be completely borked, but 'getting through the Winter without mass die-offs' is a very different question than 'at...

It might be the US. I can believe the Biden Admin is stupid enough to do this. However, assuming it is the US before clear evidence emerges, rather than one of any number of other actors who might have done it, that's just showing your bias.

Insanity is a pretty good answer in and of itself. Incompetence is another one. Russia has been demonstrating both in great quantity over the last eight months.

Would you like a list of things that Biden said he would do, and have not happened? Would you like a list of other actors with both a motive and the ability to pull this off? Would you like a list of reasons the US has not to do it? All of this said, I by no means am ruling out the...

The probability isn't high, but if they were running the same procedures at the same time on the lines, it's not completely ridiculous. I honestly don't know what happened, and see no reason to commit myself to one interpretation or another until more information comes to light.

That's still my leading theory. Not very high probability, but simple Russian incompetence has been the root explanation behind almost everything in this war, including the war itself, so it's certainly possible here.

To explain two key counterpoints in equally small words: 1. Russia's leadership is clearly not completely sane. 2. False-flag bombings are a thing. Personally, I put odds at less than 20% that Russia did this, but it is possible. I think the most likely is it's just stupidity in operating...