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You're right. And the best part of it all, after Zhukov successfully bluffed them at Khalkin Gol, the Japanese realized this too. The final plan for Hokushin-ron focused only on #1.

And even in 1944, with the Japanese war effort collapsing, the IJA still managed to inflict a crushing - if indecisive - defeat on the KMT during Operation Ichi-Go. China was a classic stalemate, with the Japanese lacking the manpower and logistics to decisively defeat the KMT, but the KMT...

I wouldn't underestimate Japanese automotive capabilities even at the time, though. The Americans actually had complete technical readouts of the A6M Zero before the war started, but dismissed it as propaganda/Japanese misdirection, simply because they thought the Japanese had no capability to...

Not too sure about that, TBH. I'll need to go and look up the relevant sources, but AFAIK, even at Kalkhin Gol, the Japanese actually had superior kill-rates against the Red Army, with Zhukov's victory dependent on actually stripping surrounding areas of trucks and tanks to achieve superior...

First question: does Japan still occupy French Indochina in 1940 to 1941? If so, then the IJA does not have the manpower to go to war with the Soviet Union. Also, this would automatically result in the OTL sanctions which put the Japanese economy and war machine on a countdown to shutdown. In...