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Given the start of the Scenario, they would first be cleaning up Erbil and Dohuk first, PUK which held Sulaimaniyah would hold out. But KDP was always more bark than bite, good at suckering Westerners out of their money, less good on actually doing anything useful with it. After which, they...

As the tin says. Obama instead of sending in the F-18s to save the Yezidis or stopping the imminent ISIS takeover of Erbil. He does evac the consulate in Erbil, and JDAMs it before ISIS can take it and orders the other missions to evacuate immediately. Going on TV, he says, let Iran and ISIS...